January 2008 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Somalia

Expected Council Action
Somalia will be on the minds of Council members in January due to the acute crisis there and the expiry of the AU mandate for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) on 17 January. However, it remains unclear whether the Council will in January renew the authorisation for AMISOM and if so whether this will be a simple technical rollover or whether, in light of the recommendations from the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the Council will begin work on a more comprehensive approach.

Key Recent Developments
At his first briefing to the Council, on 17 December, Ould-Abdallah presented a bleak picture of Somalia after 17 years of crisis and urged immediate action on two tracks to address political and security issues. He stressed that continuing the current approach would be harmful and that the only effective option is a new course of action by the international community simultaneously on the political and security fronts to create a broad-based government with the capacity to administer the country.

On 19 December, the Council responded to Ould-Abdallah’s briefing with a presidential statement. Although there were proposals for the statement to explicitly acknowledge the gravity of the situation as outlined by Ould-Abdallah, there was no agreement on this and the statement simply reiterated the current Council position. This may suggest that the Council members feel that they needed further time to reflect on Ould-Abdallah’s proposals. However, the statement does set a deadline of 8 February for the Secretary-General to report on the issue.

Violence has intensified and the humanitarian situation has deteriorated in recent weeks. More than half the population of Mogadishu (over 600,000 people) are estimated to have fled, and the number of refugees and internally displaced persons in Somalia may be as high as 3 million and 1 million, respectively. UNICEF has called for safe areas for children. Piracy off the Somali coast is severely threatening World Food Programme supplies.

Political progress has been largely absent. President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed’s choice of Nur Hassan Hussein as new prime minister on 22 November initially appeared to be a positive development; it was well received internationally and ratified almost unanimously by parliament on 24 November. However, on 3 December, the day after Hussein appointed his cabinet, five ministers resigned, claiming their clans were not adequately represented. On 16 December, Hussein dismissed his entire cabinet after parliament rejected the new line-up. Although a constitutional change had allowed more ministers to come from outside parliament, this was not adequately reflected in Hussein’s government and it lacked international support. He has stated that half his new cabinet will consist of non-parliamentary technical experts.

Options
The most likely option seems to be a debate on Somalia, perhaps accompanied by a rollover of the authorisation for AMISOM.

Another option is for the resolution to authorise a broader coalition of states, as participants in the force, thereby enabling non-AU countries to provide troops.

A further possible option would be to begin addressing the first track of Ould-Abdallah’s recommendations—the political dimension—by explicitly endorsing much more broadly based negotiations than has been the case to date, setting a fixed time frame, demanding a ceasefire to facilitate negotiations and requesting the Secretary-General to immediately increase resources to support a negotiating process designed to lead to a genuine government of national unity.

Further options, if there is reluctance to address the authorisation resolution in January, but looking forward to discussion of the Secretary-General’s report in February, include:

Key Issues
The key issue, given the history of past UN peacekeeping in Somalia, is the security crisis in and around Mogadishu and the reluctance of many Council members to move towards approving a UN mission that could end up repeating the previous Mogadishu experience. A related issue is the presence of Ethiopian troops. In theory this was to help to provide some stability but now it seems to have become a major source of tension. If the Ethiopians are to be replaced by a wider coalition than the current AU one, key issues arise, including whether the UN and the Council should play a role in coordinating the exercise even if, in the short term, it will not be a UN force. Related issues will include whether the UN can provide assistance to such a force, perhaps following the “light” and “heavy” support models from Darfur.

Council Dynamics
Most Council members have supported the drawing up of contingency plans for a possible future UN peacekeeping operation when conditions permit. Some feel that an assessment mission should be sent without delay. Others seem to believe that conditions on the ground are not favourable for an assessment mission. Some members are also concerned that the cost implications of a UN operation may not be sustainable. These concerns have combined to lead the Council into a very cautious initial response to Ould-Abdallah’s recommendations.

However, South Africa clearly feels AMISOM in its current configuration is no longer sufficient. There is substantial support for AMISOM from most members, including Belgium, Ghana, Indonesia, Italy, Panama, Russia, the UK, and the US, and perhaps including a willingness to explicitly encourage more bilateral financial and logistical assistance to AMISOM. Additional interest is growing in how the Council can support an ad hoc coalition to replace or reinforce AMISOM as the best practical step towards the long-term goal of a UN operation.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1772 (20 August 2007) renewed AMISOM.
  • S/RES/733 (23 January 1992) imposed the arms embargo.

Selected Other Security Council Documents

  • S/PRST/2007/49 (19 December 2007) was a presidential statement setting an 8 February deadline for a peacekeeping assessment report.
  • S/PV.5805 (17 December 2007) was the Council briefing by Ould-Abdallah.
  • SC/9203 (17 December 2007) was a press statement on ’s briefing.
  • S/PV.5792 (6 December 2007) was a Council briefing by John Holmes on his visit to Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia.
  • S/2007/436 (17 July 2007) was the latest Monitoring Group report.
  • S/2007/154 and Annex (14 March 2007) was the latest report of the Sanctions Committee (established by resolution 751) concerning Somalia.

Reports and Letters of the Secretary-General

  • S/2007/658 (7 November 2007) was the latest Secretary-General’s report.
  • S/2007/575 (28 September 2007) was a letter from the Secretary-General informing the Council of his appointment of the latest Group of Experts.
  • S/2005/729 (16 November 2005) and S/2005/730 (21 November 2005) was an exchange of letters renewing the mandate of UNPOS.

Other

  • DP/DCP/SOM/1/Rev.1 (2 July 2007) was the draft UNDP country programme document for Somalia (2008-2009).

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNPOS

Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah (Mauritania)

Chairman of the Sanctions Committee

Dumisani S. Kumalo (South Africa) (term ends 31 December)

AMISOM: Size and Composition

Maximum authorised strength: 7,650 troops plus maritime and air components
Strength as of 30 October 2007: about 1,600 Ugandan troops

AMISOM: Duration

February 2007 to present: AU mandate expires on 17 January 2008 and Council authorisation expires on 20 February 2008

Full forecast

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