July 2007 Monthly Forecast

ASIA

Nepal

Expected Council Action
The Council is scheduled to discuss the Secretary-General’s latest report on Nepal, and be briefed by Ian Martin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Nepal.  The report is expected to focus on preparations for the constituent assembly elections planned for November and provide an update on the recent work of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN).  No formal Council action is required, but some form of encouragement for the political process and the Special Representative is a possibility, perhaps in a press statement.

Key Recent Developments
The interim government has agreed that elections will be held on 22 November.  Electoral legislation could not be passed in time for June elections as initially planned, and the monsoon period meant that it would be better to reschedule elections to near the end of the year.

A new constitution to determine whether Nepal becomes a republic or keeps the monarchy will be prepared by the new body when it is elected.  A recent poll indicated that 60 percent of Nepalese favour abolishing the monarchy. 

The interim parliament has been active. On 13 June, it gave itself the authority to eliminate the monarchy with a two-thirds majority vote if King Gyanendra seeks to intervene in the electoral process.  On 15 June, it allotted seats to ethnic groups and women in an effort to appease those involved in violent protests earlier this year.  

In June, the UN’s Electoral Expert Monitoring Team (EEMT) visited Nepal to assess the election process. 

On 14 June, UNMIN began the second phase of registering and verifying former Maoist combatants and their weapons. It is expected to verify that there were no Maoist soldiers under the age of 18 as of 25 May 2006. Under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, both sides committed to discharge child soldiers by that date. The first phase of registration and verification was completed in April. 

Options
The most likely option for the Council is to take no formal action. However, a press statement welcoming progress, including perhaps the UNMIN findings on child soldiers, and calling on the parties to work toward holding free and fair elections, is a possible option.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is whether the peace agreement can hold until the elections.  This will depend on whether all parties believe that they have a voice in shaping Nepal’s future. One positive sign is the interim government’s recent decision to allocate seats to women and ethnic minorities in the new assembly. This may encourage traditionally disenfranchised groups that they have a stake in the political process.

Another significant issue is the slow progress in electoral planning. The interim parliament has not completed drafting electoral legislation, with the prospect of disagreement over the electoral process.  A clear timetable has not been established for the election.

Another key issue for the Council is ensuring that the elections are conducted freely and fairly. Here, UNMIN’s election advisors and monitors are crucial. A related issue is dealing with security concerns leading up to and during the elections.

A future issue is the Council’s role in the post-election environment.  UNMIN’s mandate, which will expire in January, is to support the peace process through electoral assistance and arms registration and verification.  It remains to be seen whether Nepal will seek to extend the mandate to help address disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) issues.  

Council Dynamics
Council members continue to demonstrate a strong degree of unity in support of the focused UNMIN mandate that began in January and the peace process overall.  Some Council members are still wary of extending the mission beyond the 12-month period and of possible mission creep. 
 

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UN Documents

 Security Council Resolution
  • S/RES/1740 (23 January 2007) was the resolution establishing UNMIN for twelve months. 
 Secretary General’s Reports
  • S/2007/235 (26 April 2007) was the report discussing the progress of UN assistance in support of Nepal’s peace process. 
  • S/2006/920 (22 November 2006) contained Nepal’s 9 August 2006 request for UN assistance in the peace process.
 Presidential Statements
  • S/PRST/2006/49 (1 December 2006) expressed support for the Secretary-General’s intention to send a technical assessment team to Nepal and noted that the Council would await formal proposals. 

Other Relevant Facts

 Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission 
 Ian Martin (United Kingdom)
 Size and Composition
 271 international staff, 389 national staff, 258 UN Volunteers, 155 military observers and seven police advisers.
 Duration
 23 January 2007 to 23 January 2008.
 Cost
 US$88.8 million

Full forecast

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