Overview

China will have the presidency of the Council in July.

A very heavy programme of work is anticipated. No thematic debates are currently envisaged, especially in light of fact that two important thematic debates were held in June. It may be however that the recent Council mission to Africa, in particular the discussions in Addis Ababa on cooperation with the AU, may present an opportunity for a public meeting.

Open meetings of the Council required by previous Council decisions will include:

• The Monthly meeting on the Middle East (In view of the tensions and   possible developments in the region, other meetings are possible);
• Meetings on the DRC to extend the mandate of the Group of Experts and   address the sanctions regime;
• Extension of the mandate of the Somalia sanctions Monitoring Group (In view of concerns about the ongoing violence in Somalia and the humanitarian situation, consultations on broader issues are also likely. These will probably be triggered by the report from the Secretary General, which is now before the Council);

Consultations and possibly open meetings to consider decisions are anticipated on:

• Kosovo – at press time a draft resolution was under discussion informally, but a decision had not been taken as to when to inscribe the item on the formal agenda for consideration;
• Darfur – a resolution to approve the “hybrid operation” is expected;
• Chad – with the progress on Darfur it may be that the Council will be able to move to the next stage of consideration of a United Nations role in the regional dimension of the conflict;
• Iran  – there was no follow up in June to the 23 May report from the IAEA that Iran was still not in compliance with resolution 1747. A draft resolution further tightening sanctions seems likely;
• Iraq – A letter from the president of the Council regarding next steps with the winding up of the residual aspects of the Oil for Food Programme is possible;
• Lebanon  – Several reports are due and in light of the ongoing tensions one or more presidential statements are possible;
• Nepal – a presidential statement reinforcing progress towards elections is possible;
• North Korea – with some light now at the end of the tunnel it is possible that a statement encouraging progress may be considered;
• Western Sahara – the conclusion of the direct talks between Morocco and Polisario  in late June, which seem to have gone as positively as anyone could reasonable have hoped, may be the occasion for a statement encouraging the parties in the lead up to their second round in August.

Consultations are expected on Ethiopia/Eritrea and Georgia. Formal decisions are unlikely, but some members may have proposals for press statements.

Timor Leste is not scheduled for consideration, but with Parliamentary elections due on 30 June and some persistent problems on the ground, a Council statement to reinforce the need for peaceful elections is possible.

There is no doubt that the atmosphere in the Council will be influenced significantly by the way in which the Kosovo issue is played out. It will overshadow other issues for some time – whatever the outcome on the draft resolution.

But other complex and difficult situations also have a momentum of their own. Major decisions are needed on Darfur. This and the challenges presented by the situation in Lebanon also seem likely to claim a significant amount of time during the month.  Somalia will probably also occupy an important place in the programme of work. Similarly, it seems inevitable that the issue of Iran and its nuclear programme will return to the Council agenda.
Full forecast