Overview
The Council is facing a very heavy work programme for February, despite it being a relatively light month in terms of scheduled items.
The only major scheduled item is the renewal of the mandate for the United Nations Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), which actually coincides with a critical point in Haiti, the conduct of much delayed elections to replace the transitional government. January has proved to be a very bad month for both Haiti and MINUSTAH and the Council will be devoting significant time and energy to that situation.
Darfur will be a major focus of attention as the UN and the AU try to work out a basis for a transition from the current AU force AMIS (which is in an increasingly difficult position) to a newly configured UN operation in some form of partnership with the AU. There are challenging political, operational and financial issues to be resolved as the UN grapples with a problem which is both urgent and requires innovative thinking. The challenge for the Council is whether it takes a leadership role in working out solutions or whether it waits for the Secretary-General. Some detailed options are canvassed in our brief on this issue.
Another peacekeeping mission in a very difficult situation is the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). Council consideration of a difficult set of options from the Secretary-General was put on ice in early January for thirty days to permit a last ditch diplomatic initiative by the United States. It is possible that more time will be needed to assess whether this track has prospects of success. The Council is certain to acquiesce if it proves necessary. But the status quo-with UNMEE facing unacceptable restrictions imposed by Eritrea and with Ethiopia continuing to refuse to comply with a binding ruling on the boundary delimitation-is only sustainable for a short time. The issue seems certain to need attention later in February.
All the signs suggest that the issue of Iran will reach the Council in February. The incremental pressure approach being pursued by the US and the EU-3 seems very likely to lead:
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first to a decision in Vienna by the IAEA Governing Board to refer Iran’s non-compliance with the NPT to the Security Council; and
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secondly, to a decision by Council members to take up the issue in informal consultations.
As discussed in our brief, punitive measures are not expected at this stage. Options for a possible Council statement are canvassed.
The formation of a new government in Iraq, following the results of the 15 December elections is underway. It is unclear whether the parties will reach an agreement on the formation of a government in February. But it is likely that the Council will want to express support for the new Government when it is formed, even if it is delayed, to indicate support for the process. It also seems likely that the Council will begin to discuss informally the issue of the future UN role in Iraq. Our brief describes the various roles that the UN has played in Iraq historically, the outstanding issues relating to ongoing UN functions and the issues for the future.
Lebanon/Syria will continue to be a very high profile issue. Ongoing pressure on Syria in the Council to comply with resolutions 1559, 1636 and 1644 can be expected. However, with the adoption of a presidential statement (S/PRST/2006/03) on 23 January relating to resolution 1559, and with no formal deadlines on the Lebanon/Syria issue during February, Council action is expected to be informal, supplemented by media statements by the President.
Events that may trigger more formal Council action include:
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any incidents in northern Israel/southern Lebanon suggesting ongoing Syrian support for movement of arms or personnel into Lebanon; and/or
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any reports by the UN International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) Commissioner Serge Brammertz of Syrian non-cooperation.
In addition, the Council may need to follow up the requests made in resolution 1644 to the Secretary-General relating to:
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the nature and scope of international assistance needed if the UN were to respond to the Lebanese request that persons charged with the Hariri assassination be tried by a tribunal of an international character; and
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possible extensions to the mandate of UNIIIC to include investigation of other terrorist attacks perpetrated in Lebanon since 1 October 2004.
Our brief provides background information on both of these issues.
Great Lakes Initiative / northern Uganda
The debate on regional issues in the Great Lakes area and the killing of eight UN peacekeepers in DRC by the northern Uganda rebel group, LRA, has brought into much sharper focus not only the interrelated nature of the issues but also the fact that an important piece of the puzzle-the LRA-may have been given insufficient attention by the UN. Council follow up seems likely.
Côte d’Ivoire
In view of the outbreak of violence in Côte d’Ivoire and especially the attacks against the UN, it is likely that the Council will also adopt targeted sanctions against individuals responsible. The Council will also be monitoring the situation very closely.
The Council is also likely to take up a number of less high profile issues, including:
- Afghanistan
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Kosovo
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Somalia
