What's In Blue

Posted Wed 23 Sep 2026
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Ukraine: High-level Briefing

This morning (23 September) at 11 am EDT, the Security Council will hold a high-level briefing on Ukraine, which was requested by the Council’s five European members (Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK). French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot is expected to chair the meeting, at which Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo will brief. Several Council members and other participants will be represented by their heads of state or foreign ministers, who are in New York for the high-level segment of the 81st session of the General Assembly. Ukraine, which will be represented by its Minister for Foreign Affairs, Andrii Sybiha, and several countries from the region are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while President of the European Council António Costa will take part under rule 39.

The US renewed its engagement with Moscow and Kyiv in recent weeks in an attempt to broker a deal between the countries. US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 5 September before travelling to Kyiv the following day. At a joint press conference following the meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the discussions had covered Ukraine’s air-defence and energy sector needs ahead of winter, security guarantees, and prospects for resuming negotiations. On 8 September, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the discussions as substantive, noting that new ideas had been put forward despite the parties’ continuing red lines. He said the renewed engagement presented an opportunity to develop a roadmap for resuming talks in the coming weeks, while cautioning against excessive optimism and stressing that considerable work remained.

Subsequent efforts have focused on a possible reciprocal halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. On 14 September, US President Donald Trump said that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop such strikes. Zelenskyy, however, noted that Ukraine was awaiting further details from its partners and was prepared to support a reciprocal halt to strikes on critical infrastructure if Washington could secure Russia’s commitment to de-escalation. On 15 September, the Kremlin welcomed the US proposal and called for the lifting of sanctions restricting Russian energy exports. Neither side has confirmed an agreement, however, and attacks on energy infrastructure have since continued.

Yesterday (22 September), Trump and Zelenskyy met to discuss possible de-escalation steps and broader efforts to end the war. After the meeting, Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine’s readiness to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow reciprocated. No agreement was announced.

Attacks affecting civilians and civilian infrastructure have continued since the Council’s last briefing on Ukraine, held on 24 August. The latest protection of civilians (PoC) report by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), issued on 17 September, reported a surge in attacks against retail, food, and logistics companies. The Independent International Commission of Inquiry (COI) on Ukraine warned on 21 September that continued Russian attacks on energy infrastructure were increasing civilians’ vulnerability, raising concerns that already difficult living conditions could worsen as winter approaches. The COI also noted reports of increased civilian casualties and damage from Ukrainian attacks in Russia and in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, although it said that a lack of access and information had prevented it from investigating these incidents.

Recent months have witnessed a sharp rise in civilian casualties. According to the HRMMU’s PoC report, at least 372 civilians were killed and 2,349 injured in Ukraine in August, marking the second-highest monthly figure this year, after July. The number of civilian casualties recorded in the first eight months of 2026 exceeded the total during the whole of 2025. Long-range weapons (missiles and drones) accounted for 47 percent of civilian casualties in August, with most of these casualties occurring in urban centres far from the front line.

Concerns about the escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders have resurfaced following a series of security incidents involving North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries and other neighbouring states. On 1 September, Germany attributed an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport in August to Russia. On 8 and 12 September, drones entered Romanian airspace after crossing Moldova, with one of the drones crashing on Romanian territory. Russian strikes near Ukraine’s border with Poland on 13 September temporarily disrupted operations at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing. On 14 September, Denmark reported that a Russian warship had fired flares towards one of its military helicopters in international waters in the Baltic Sea. The following day, Italian fighter jets operating under NATO’s air defence mission shot down an explosives-carrying drone that had entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus.

Against this backdrop, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on 17 September that intelligence assessments indicated Russia was planning possible hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland. He argued that Moscow might present such attacks as accidental to weaken NATO’s willingness to respond under its collective-defence commitments.

At today’s meeting, DiCarlo is likely to express concern about the continued escalation of attacks and their effects on civilians. She may urge renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war and reiterate the UN’s call for a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire leading to a just and lasting peace consistent with the UN Charter. She may also warn about the consequences of attacks on ports and commercial shipping in the Black Sea for maritime navigation and global food security, and call for the protection of civilian maritime infrastructure.

Some speakers may also refer to the latest UN findings on conflict-related sexual violence and call for accountability. An 18 September report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) documented 1,004 cases of sexual violence between 24 February 2022 and 31 July, attributing 89 percent to Russian authorities and 11 percent to Ukrainian authorities. It described widespread sexual violence against prisoners of war (POWs) and civilian detainees, including men and women, in Russian custody. Outside detention settings, women and children were also subjected to sexual violence in areas controlled by Russia.

Council members are expected to remain divided in their assessments of responsibility for the continued escalation and the prospects for diplomacy. The five European members are expected to reiterate their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders and to call on Russia to accept a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire, stressing that Ukraine agreed to such a ceasefire in March 2025.

Several Council members may also raise concerns about attacks in the Black Sea. The European members are likely to argue that Russia is attempting to obstruct Ukrainian grain exports, thereby jeopardising global food security, and call for the protection of commercial shipping and critical infrastructure. In this regard, some members—including Bahrain, France, Greece, and Liberia—may express support for efforts to reach an arrangement safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, while stressing the need to facilitate the safety of commercial vessels and crews. Liberia may again propose a moratorium on long-range strikes against populated areas and attacks on shipping and ports as it did in an August Council meeting on Ukraine. Similarly, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed support for a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea to facilitate grain shipments during his General Assembly address yesterday.

Several other Council members—including Bahrain, China, Pakistan, and Somalia—are likely to call for de-escalation, the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, and renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Pakistan and Somalia may reiterate that there is no military solution and call for a cessation of hostilities, while China is likely to urge the parties to resume and sustain negotiations. China and Pakistan may also stress that a settlement should take into account the legitimate security concerns of all parties. Several members may also welcome prisoner exchanges between the sides as confidence-building measures and encourage further humanitarian cooperation to help create conditions for broader talks.

The US is likely to emphasise its mediation efforts and recall resolution 2774, adopted in February 2025, which called for a swift end to the conflict and urged a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia. It may urge the parties to work towards an agreement acceptable to both sides and call for renewed negotiations. It may further raise the possibility of increased economic pressure on Russia, following Trump’s signing of legislation on 18 September authorising additional sanctions and tariffs, which he indicated in his General Assembly address yesterday that he would use “if necessary”.

Russia may argue that continued European military support for Ukraine and proposed security arrangements risk prolonging the conflict and escalating tensions with NATO. On 15 September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s insistence that any settlement address what it describes as the conflict’s root causes, including NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders and the rights of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine. He maintained that Russia remained open to bilateral or trilateral negotiations, while rejecting a suspension of military operations during talks. Russia may also reiterate its opposition to the deployment of European forces in Ukraine as part of future security arrangements. On 16 September, Lavrov cited Putin’s warning that such a development would amount to Europe declaring war on Russia.

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