Ukraine: Briefing
Tomorrow morning (19 May), the Security Council will hold an open briefing on Ukraine. The meeting was requested by Ukraine in a 13 May letter and supported by Council members Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK. The anticipated briefers are Kayoko Gotoh, the Director and Officer-in-charge for Europe, Central Asia and Americas at the UN Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) and Edem Wosornu, the Director of the Crisis Response Division at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Ukraine and several countries from the region are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
In its letter, Ukraine describes intensified Russian drone and missile attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure in recent weeks. The letter notes that attacks took place shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a ceasefire to begin overnight between 5 and 6 May and called on Russia to take genuine steps towards ending the war. Ukraine argues that Russia’s continued attacks, including during the subsequent 9-11 May ceasefire period, demonstrate that Moscow has no intention of engaging in good-faith negotiations.
Tomorrow’s meeting will take place against the backdrop of renewed scrutiny of recent ceasefire efforts, which appear to have had only a limited effect on the overall level of hostilities. On 4 May, Russia had initially proposed a limited pause in hostilities for 8 and 9 May, to mark the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War with a Victory Day military parade in Moscow. Ukraine responded shortly after by proposing a ceasefire for 5 and 6 May and urging Russia to reciprocate. Following US engagement, the two sides agreed to a three-day ceasefire from 9 to 11 May. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the announcement of the three-day ceasefire, as well as a planned large-scale exchange of prisoners between the parties, commending the US for facilitating the agreement, while reiterating his call for an immediate, full, unconditional, and lasting ceasefire.
The truce, however, was marked by mutual accusations of violations. According to independent assessments, Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations throughout the ceasefire period, with persistent tactical engagements even as the overall operational tempo decreased in some areas. In the days following the ceasefire, violence escalated again, with cities across Ukraine coming under renewed attack. Russian forces reportedly launched over 1,500 drones and dozens of missiles in continuous waves of attacks across Ukraine from 13 to 15 May, marking one of the most intense and prolonged attacks since the start of the war in February 2022. On 14 May, a Russian missile hit an apartment building in Kyiv, killing 24 people and injuring 48 others. Ukraine, in turn, launched its largest overnight drone attack on Moscow in more than a year on 16-17 May, killing at least four people in Russia, including three in the Moscow region and one in Belgorod, according to Russian local officials. Russia’s defense ministry said more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones were downed nationwide over a 24-hour period.
On the diplomatic front, US-brokered talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled as a result of the US-Israeli war with Iran and the recent escalation in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Bilateral contacts between the US and both sides have nevertheless continued. On 8 May, Ukraine’s lead negotiator, Rustem Umerov, arrived in Miami for meetings with US Special Presidential Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, an adviser to US President Donald Trump and his son-in-law. According to Zelenskyy, the talks covered further prisoner exchanges, security guarantees, and possible formats for leadership-level meetings aimed at ending the war. On 10 May, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said that Witkoff and Kushner would travel to Moscow “soon enough” to continue talks with Russia.
On 9 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that he thought the war was “coming to an end” and suggested that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder could play a role in future talks on European security arrangements. European governments rejected the suggestion, with European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas arguing that to “give the right to Russia to appoint a negotiator on our behalf…would not be very wise”. In a sign of growing European involvement in the peace track, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told Politico on 11 May that Kyiv was exploring a limited ceasefire protecting airports from attack that European partners could help to broker.
On 15 May, Russia and Ukraine swapped 205 prisoners of war (POW) each, as part of the agreement linked to the 9-11 May ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy described it as the first step in a larger exchange of 1,000 POWs each under the terms of the agreement.
At tomorrow’s meeting, the briefers and many Council members are likely to voice alarm about the humanitarian impact of the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. According to the most recent protection of civilians in armed conflict (PoC) report by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), which was issued on 13 May, at least 238 civilians were killed and 1,404 injured in Ukraine in April 2026, marking the highest monthly civilian casualty toll since July 2025. Civilian casualties were 21 percent higher during the first four months of 2026 than in the same period of 2025.
Council members are likely to present diverging assessments of responsibility for the continued fighting and the most suitable path towards ending the war. The European members—Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK—are expected to condemn Russia’s latest aerial attacks and characterise the collapse of the recent temporary ceasefire, like that of the Easter truce before it, as further evidence of Russia’s lack of good faith and to reiterate that Ukraine has, by contrast, repeatedly demonstrated its readiness to engage in a comprehensive ceasefire. They are expected to renew calls for a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire as the necessary first step towards a just and lasting peace. They may also reiterate that any settlement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders, and be underpinned by credible and enforceable security guarantees.
Some members may condemn recent airspace violations on NATO’s eastern flank. Latvia, in particular, may address the 7 May incursion of two Ukrainian drones into its territory, which Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha attributed to Russian electronic warfare, as part of a broader pattern of regional spillover effects of the war. (Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds resigned on 10 May following the incident, after Prime Minister Evika Silina publicly criticised the country’s response.) On 13 May, the Bucharest Nine (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary[1], Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) and the Nordic Allies (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) issued a joint statement contending that such violations underscore the need to continue strengthening NATO’s air and missile defence, including against threats from uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS).
Several members—including China, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Pakistan, and Somalia—are likely to call for restraint, de-escalation, and respect for international humanitarian law. Some of these members may underscore the need for an early resumption of peace talks, while China is expected to emphasise the need for a negotiated settlement that addresses the legitimate security concerns of all sides. These members may welcome the three-day ceasefire and the POW exchange as confidence-building measures, while regretting that the truce was both time-limited and not fully observed. They may also stress the importance of protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure as well as the need for safe and unimpeded humanitarian access.
Russia, for its part, is expected to reject the framing of the meeting and accuse Ukraine and its European supporters of using the Council to focus selectively on Russian attacks while ignoring Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. It may highlight Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian energy, transport, and military infrastructure and argue that such attacks threaten civilians and regional energy security. Russia may also seek to portray itself as open to diplomacy, while accusing Ukraine and other European states of obstructing negotiations or seeking to prolong the war. In this regard, it may renew its objections to expanded European military assistance to Ukraine, particularly the EU’s 90 billion euro loan, and the 20th sanctions package against Russia. It may also point to the ongoing corruption investigation in Ukraine to question the legitimacy and accountability of the Ukrainian authorities, possibly arguing that the case underscores the need for elections in Ukraine.
The US position will be closely watched given Washington’s central role in brokering the 9–11 May ceasefire and its continuing bilateral contacts with both parties. The US is likely to reiterate Trump’s determination to broker a durable end to the war and to highlight recent progress on prisoner exchanges and mediation efforts. As at the 20 April Council meeting, the US may also call on other states—including China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and Iran—to cease support that it believes enables Russia’s war effort.
[1] Hungary signaled a “constructive abstention” on the statement.