Emergency Briefing on Drone Incursion into Poland
This afternoon (12 September), the Security Council will hold an emergency briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item. Poland requested the meeting in a 10 September letter to the Council (S/2025/572), which said that Russian drones that were fired from the territories of Belarus and Russia entered its airspace overnight. The Council’s European members—Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK—supported the meeting request. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer. Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, and several other regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while the European Union (EU) is expected to participate under rule 39.
In its letter, Poland noted that “19 cases of incursion by Russian drone-type objects into Polish airspace” were recorded on the night between 9 and 10 September. It described the incident as the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that “Polish territorial integrity has been violated on such an unprecedented, massive scale”. The letter further argued that the incursion was a major violation of EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace, which marks an escalation by Russia that brings “the whole region closer to conflict than ever before”.
Poland shot down the drones with backing from NATO allies, including Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. There were no reports of casualties in Poland in connection with the incident. Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows NATO member countries to bring their security concerns to the attention of the North Atlantic Council for discussion. The invocation of the Article can potentially lead to some form of joint decision or action by NATO, although it does not mandate any response.
After a 10 September meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that a “full assessment of the incident is ongoing”, while arguing that the development was “not an isolated incident”. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO members Croatia, Poland, and Romania, as well as non-allied country Moldova, have reported numerous airspace violations by Russia. However, the recent incident in Poland was unusual in its scale and represented the first time that NATO is known to have fired shots since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The 9-10 September overnight incursion into Polish airspace occurred amid a large-scale Russian drone attack against Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials say involved as many as 415 drones. This came against the backdrop of an intensified aerial campaign that Russia has waged in recent weeks targeting Ukrainian cities, despite the strong diplomatic push by the US to promote an agreement to end the war. Earlier in the day on 9 September, a Russian strike using a glide bomb hit the village of Yarova in the eastern Donetsk region as a crowd of elderly people gathered to collect their monthly pensions, killing at least 24 people and injuring 19 others. This was preceded on 7 September by an attack by Russia, during which it launched 805 drones and 13 cruise missiles, according to Ukrainian authorities, in what marked the largest such assault against Ukraine since the war’s outset. That attack killed at least five people across the country, including a woman and a child in Kyiv. A government building was set ablaze in the capital, while other cities—including Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Odesa—also came under fire.
At the time of writing, details remained unclear about the circumstances leading to the recent airborne incursion into Poland. Various actors have presented diverging narratives, which are also likely to be on display at today’s meeting. Officials from Poland and some other European interlocutors have argued that it was an intentional, aggressive move that should be viewed as part of a serious escalation by Russia. Some analysts have suggested that the incident could help Russia test NATO’s readiness to address such incursions and the US’ resolve to assist Europe in such an event. Today, Belarus and Russia began a pre-planned joint military exercise, called “Zapad”, which will continue until Tuesday (16 September). The Zapad exercise—which is held every four years—last took place shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Polish officials reportedly believe that the current exercise may simulate an attack on the Suwałki corridor, a narrow stretch of NATO territory linking Poland and Lithuania between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Poland has closed its border with Belarus in light of the exercise.
Some European officials reportedly see the airborne incursion as an attempt by Russia to deter European countries that are considering sending troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees in the context of a potential peace deal. In this regard, on 4 September, French President Emmanuel Macron said after a summit held in Paris that 26 of Ukraine’s allies, which form part of “the coalition of the willing”, had committed to deploying troops “by land, sea or air” to provide security guarantees for the country once the war stops. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on the following day, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly dismissed the idea of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine after a peace deal is struck, while warning that if any foreign troops are deployed while the conflict is still ongoing, they would be considered “legitimate targets” by Moscow.
Russia, for its part, has rejected allegations that it carried out an intentional airborne incursion into Poland. In a 10 September statement, Russia’s Defence Ministry said that its 9-10 September overnight strike against Ukraine, which it described as targeting military infrastructure, “did not include any targets in the territory” of Poland. While the statement accused Poland of spreading “myths” in order to “aggravate the Ukrainian crisis”, it also expressed the ministry’s readiness to hold consultations on the issue with its Polish counterparts. Belarusian officials have suggested that the drones have been impacted by “electronic warfare assets” that made them stray from their intended course.
At today’s meeting, many speakers may note that whether the incident was intentional or not, it still represents a concerning development with potential implications for regional stability. In this context, DiCarlo and some Council members may echo the 10 September statement delivered by Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric, which expressed the Secretary-General’s concern about the recent development. The statement noted that the incident “underlines the regional impact and real risk of expansion” of the conflict in Ukraine, and underscored the “urgent need for a full, immediate and unconditional ceasefire and for a just, comprehensive and sustainable peace in Ukraine”.
The Council’s European members are likely to condemn Russia’s actions, including the airborne incursion into Poland and the increasing attacks against Ukraine, while characterising them as part of a pattern of escalation by Russia that also risks European security. They are also expected to argue that such behaviour undermines peace negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and demonstrate that Moscow is not committed to dialogue. These members may call on Russia to cease such actions, to uphold international humanitarian law, to protect civilians, and to respect the sovereignty of states.
Russia is expected to reject the allegations levelled against it regarding the latest incident. It may also accuse Europe and NATO of obstructing peace negotiations to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. Today, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “there is a pause in the talks”, but also noted that the “channels of communication are in place and functioning” and that negotiators can continue outreach through them. He added that Russia “remains ready to pursue the path of peaceful dialogue…[b]ut it is true that the Europeans are hindering this”. At today’s meeting, Russia may echo such messages while emphasising that any attempts to address collective security issues must take into account Russia’s interests and concerns. At the Council’s latest meeting on Ukraine, held on 29 August, Russian Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyanskiy said that western states are using the proposals for security guarantees to promote “one-sided, essentially neocolonial initiatives to deter Russia”. He further maintained that “[t]his applies to the inherently unfeasible European plans for further militarization of Ukraine and the build-up of NATO’s military presence in the Black Sea region, including airspace patrols”.