Briefing on Incursion of Russian Aircraft into Estonian Airspace
Tomorrow morning (22 September), the Security Council will hold an urgent briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item. The meeting was requested by Estonia in a 20 September letter to the Council (S/2025/594), which said that three Russian fighter jets had violated Estonia’s airspace on 19 September. The Council’s five European members (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK)—all of which are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—supported the request. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča is expected to brief. Estonia, Ukraine, and possibly other regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while the European Union (EU) is expected to take part under rule 39.
It appears that Estonia is organising a joint stakeout with other like-minded UN member states prior to the briefing to explain its rationale for requesting the meeting. This group is also expected to call on Russia to cease its provocative actions and adhere to its obligations under the UN Charter.
On 19 September, Estonia reported that three MIG-31 Russian fighter jets entered and stayed in its airspace above the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes. According to Estonia, the Russian pilots acknowledged but disregarded communication from two Italian pilots in F-35 fighter jets, which had taken off from NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission in Ämari Air Base in Estonia, before ultimately being escorted into international skies by the F-35 pilots. Russia has denied the violation of Estonia’s airspace, claiming that its jets were flying over international waters en route from an air base in northwest Russia to Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave situated on the Baltic Sea between NATO countries Lithuania and Poland.
Estonia invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which initiates consultations among members. The article permits NATO member countries to bring any matter of concern, especially in relation to their security, to the attention of the North Atlantic Council for discussion. This can potentially lead to some form of joint decision or action by NATO, although it does not mandate any response. Article 4 has only been invoked eight other times since NATO’s creation, including after the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace earlier this month.
In its 20 September letter to the Council, Estonia said that Russia had violated its airspace four times this year, but that the incursion on 19 September marked “a dangerous escalation”, with the fighters entering 10 km into Estonian airspace and coming within minutes of Tallinn, the country’s capital. Estonia maintained that the incursion into its airspace was “part of a broader pattern of testing Europe’s and NATO’s resolve”, and “another dangerous act to further escalate regional and global tensions as Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine”. In this regard, the letter noted that this was not an isolated incident, referring to the incursion of 19 Russian drones into Poland’s airspace on 9-10 September and the flight of a Russian attack drone over Romanian territory for nearly an hour on 13 September. (Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO members Croatia, Estonia, Poland, and Romania, as well as non-allied country Moldova, have reported numerous airspace violations by Russia.)
Tomorrow will mark the second time in less than two weeks that the Council is meeting to discuss accusations that Russia violated the territorial integrity of a NATO member state. On 10 September, following the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, Poland alerted the Security Council to the incident, requesting that the Council hold a meeting to discuss the matter (S/2025/572). While noting that the drones were shot down pre-emptively, Poland said that they “could have posed a threat” and that the incident “was not accidental”. While no casualties were reported from the incident, it was unusual in its scale and represented the first time that NATO is known to have fired shots since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. (For more information, see our 12 September What’s in Blue story.)
The Security Council meeting to discuss the incursion into Polish airspace was convened on 12 September. Like tomorrow’s meeting, the request for that session was supported by the Council’s European members. In addition, Poland convened a joint stakeout prior to the meeting calling on Russia to end its war in Ukraine and to end its provocations against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbours, as Estonia is expected to do tomorrow. Poland was joined by 47 other UN member states and EU in the stakeout.[1]
Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed during the ensuing meeting. She said that the incursion over Poland had “endangered recent diplomatic efforts to bring an end this unprovoked and brutal war” in Ukraine and reiterated the UN’s call for a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire to the conflict.
During the meeting, the Council’s NATO countries condemned the incursion of drones into Polish airspace, with many of them criticising Russia for violating international law, expressing concern about the risk of escalation, and underscoring that the incident undermined diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The US, the one non-European Council member in the alliance, stated: “we will defend every inch of NATO territory”. Russia, for its part, rejected the accusations against it as “baseless”, accusing Poland of blaming Russia without evidence and “engaging in megaphone diplomacy at multilateral platforms”.
At tomorrow’s meeting, Council members are likely to make similar points to those conveyed during the 12 September meeting. NATO countries are expected to maintain their condemnatory tone towards Russia and underscore that violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Alliance members represents reckless and dangerous behaviour. Some may emphasise that recent Russian incursions into Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace demonstrate a pattern of intentional, rather than accidental, violations of the sovereignty of NATO countries. They may also strongly criticise Russia for escalating its attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine in recent weeks and for failing to engage in good faith diplomacy to end the war there. Russia, in contrast, is likely to deny the accusations that its fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, while accusing Estonia and other NATO countries of escalating tensions based on false pretexts. Others may call for calm and restraint between the parties, as China did during the 12 September meeting.
Tomorrow’s meeting takes place against the backdrop of intensified Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine and efforts by NATO to bolster its air and land defences following the drone incursion over Poland. On 12 September, the Alliance announced that it would initiate an operation named “Eastern Sentry” to strengthen its military posture on its eastern flank. France, Denmark, Germany, and the UK have pledged military assets to this operation to enhance NATO’s aerial and land-based deterrence on the Alliance’s borders with Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.
Several Council members are concerned that the recent aerial incursions by Russia represent a spillover effect of the war in Ukraine that risks destabilising regional security. These members may express their concerns when the Council meets to discuss Ukraine on 24 September in a high-level briefing, which is being held to coincide with the opening session of this year’s UN General Assembly.
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[1] Member states joining the stakeout included: Albania, Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, The Republic of Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, the US and the UK.