What's In Blue

Ukraine: Briefing

Tomorrow afternoon (20 June), the Security Council will hold an open briefing on Ukraine. The meeting was requested by Ukraine in a 17 June letter following large-scale Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine on that day. Council members Denmark, France, Greece, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, and the UK supported the meeting request. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and Director of the Operations and Advocacy Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Edem Wosornu are the anticipated briefers. Ukraine and several regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

In its letter, Ukraine claims that Russia has escalated its drone and missile attacks on civilian targets, noting that it launched more than 440 drones and 30 missiles during the 17 June aerial assault on Kyiv, which reportedly destroyed residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian authorities estimate that at least 28 people were killed and over 140 injured in the attack. The letter argues that these actions represent a grave violation of international humanitarian law (IHL) and calls for a strong response from the international community.

According to the Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), the 17 June Russian assault struck more than 30 sites across seven districts in Kyiv, in what HRMMU Head Danielle Bell described as “the deadliest attack” on the capital in almost a year. The attack comes amid a surge in nightly long-range attacks by Russian forces across Ukraine in recent weeks. The HRMMU reported that this was the fourth instance in June alone where over 400 munitions were launched in a single night. Bell emphasised that the 17 June attack “exemplifies the grave threat posed by the tactic of deploying missiles and large numbers of drones simultaneously into populated areas”.

The recent surge in aerial assaults has coincided with a renewed Russian offensive along several areas of the roughly 1,000-kilometre front line. Russian troops have reportedly advanced through multiple villages in the northern Sumy region of Ukraine. Meanwhile, intensified military activity in eastern and southern Ukraine has raised concerns about a potential new front emerging in the central Dnipropetrovsk region.

On the diplomatic front, Russia and Ukraine have carried out a series of prisoners of war (POWs) exchanges and repatriations of soldiers’ remains under an agreement reached during two rounds of talks held in Istanbul, Türkiye, on 16 May and 2 June. While no date has been set for the next round of negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated during a 14 June call with US President Donald Trump that Russia is prepared to resume talks after 22 June, once the ongoing exchanges of POWs and fallen soldiers are concluded.

At tomorrow’s meeting, the briefers are expected to provide an update on the political and humanitarian situations in Ukraine, with a focus on the impact of recent hostilities on civilians. Jenča is likely to reference the latest report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict in Ukraine by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), published on 12 June, which documented at least 183 civilian deaths in May—making it the second deadliest month of the year after April. Overall, civilian casualties in the first five months of 2025 were nearly 50 percent higher compared to the same period last year. He is also likely to condemn the recent waves of missile and drone attacks, underscoring the grave risks posed by the use of explosive weapons in populated areas and calling for strict adherence to IHL.

Wosornu is likely to detail the humanitarian response to the recent surge in hostilities, while drawing attention to the ongoing challenges created by funding shortages. She may emphasise that the intensified fighting, particularly in the Sumy region, is likely to further exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in the country, possibly triggering new waves of internal displacement.

Tomorrow, Council members are expected to express concern about the ongoing hostilities and emphasise the urgent need for a comprehensive ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. They are also likely to welcome the recent exchanges of POWs and the repatriation of soldiers’ bodies as encouraging steps towards de-escalation and meaningful confidence-building measures.

Differing views are expected to emerge, however, over what constitutes the greatest obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Several Council members are likely to argue that Russia is not genuinely committed to peace, condemning the recent attack on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine. They may stress that such attacks erode trust, undermine the prospects for a ceasefire, and reflect a lack of good faith in the negotiation process. These members are expected to highlight that more than 100 days have passed since Ukraine agreed to an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which Russia has yet to accept. They may reiterate the need to increase pressure on Russia, including through the imposition of additional sanctions and reinforced measures to prevent their circumvention.

At a 29 May Council briefing on Ukraine, the US said that additional sanctions on Russia were still on the table should it make the “wrong decision to continue this catastrophic war”. Since then, however, the White House has reportedly pushed the US Senate to weaken a bipartisan sanctions bill aimed at imposing tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas. Divisions between the US and Ukraine’s Western allies have persisted, most recently illustrated by the Group of Seven (G7) failing to issue a joint statement on Ukraine, reportedly due to US opposition. In addition, a proposal by some G7 members to reduce the price cap on Russian oil was reportedly opposed by Washington. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the rise in global oil prices following the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran could benefit Russia and enhance its military capacity in the ongoing war.

Tomorrow, several Council members may condemn recent reports that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) intends to deploy “a division of builders”, “two military brigades” of 5,000 soldiers, and 1,000 demining personnel to Russia’s Kursk region. These members are likely to condemn the involvement of DPRK forces in the conflict, arguing that it signals a dangerous internationalisation of the conflict and constitutes a violation of multiple Security Council resolutions concerning the DPRK.

Russia, for its part, may reiterate its position that a ceasefire cannot be achieved without imposing limits on further arms transfers to Ukraine. It is expected to argue that ongoing military support from Kyiv’s European allies is obstructing progress towards a peaceful resolution. Russia is also expected to reject allegations that its forces are targeting civilian infrastructure, instead accusing Ukraine of such actions and criticising certain Council members of double standards. On 7 June, Russia circulated a draft resolution condemning attacks that occurred on 31 May, as well as 1 and 5 June in Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh regions, respectively, characterising them as acts of international terrorism that threaten international peace and security.

During a 17 June press stakeout, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vassily Nebenzia accused some Council members of politicising the issue and of unjustly linking the attacks to “the broader context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict”. It appears that, during the negotiations on the draft text, some members underscored the importance of Council unity on counterterrorism matters and questioned the appropriateness of the draft resolution, noting that such issues are typically addressed through a press statement. Nebenzia later stated that, “in search for consensus”, Russia proposed a press statement as an alternative, but said that this effort was also blocked by certain delegations, stating that such a selective approach undermines both Council cooperation on counterterrorism and the universality of its relevant framework.

Russia also circulated a draft presidential statement noting that, during the 2 May talks in Istanbul, Ukraine handed over to Russia a list containing the names of 339 Ukrainian children allegedly transferred to Russia. The proposed draft text welcomed Russia’s readiness to examine the list and take necessary measures to restore family links and urged Ukraine to cooperate with Russia on the matter. It appears that Council members proposed several amendments to the text and were eventually unable to reach consensus.

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