Ukraine: Briefing on Humanitarian Developments
Tomorrow morning (26 March), the Security Council will convene for an open briefing on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine. France and Panama—supported by Denmark, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK—requested the meeting on 21 March, citing two letters from Ukraine, dated 13 March (S/2025/159) and 21 March (S/2025/178), which detail continued strikes and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure and energy facilities across the country. Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya is the anticipated briefer. Ukraine and several regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
Tomorrow’s meeting comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity related to the war in Ukraine, including US efforts to secure a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire. According to media reports, the administration of US President Donald Trump is aiming to secure a full ceasefire by 20 April. On 11 March, Ukraine signalled its readiness to accept a 30-day halt to hostilities as proposed by the US. Subsequently, Washington announced plans to lift restrictions on military assistance and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. On 13 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed conditional support for the proposed truce, describing the idea as “correct” but insisting on guarantees that Ukraine would not rearm or mobilise during the ceasefire and that Western military aid would be paused. On 18 March, following a telephone conversation with Trump, Putin agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire that would stop strikes on energy infrastructure, conditioned on Ukraine committing to do the same. Since then, strikes targeting Ukrainian cities have continued, including a 20 March large-scale drone attack on the southern port city of Odesa.
On 23 March, the US began bilateral technical-level talks with delegations from Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which ended today (25 March). At the conclusion of the talks, the White House announced in parallel statements that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. The agreement provides for the safe passage of vessels, prohibits the use of force, and bars the use of commercial shipping for military purposes in the Black Sea. Under the agreement, the US pledged to support efforts to restore Russia’s access to global markets for agricultural and fertiliser exports. Washington further committed to advancing the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. The two sides have also agreed to begin work on implementing a proposal by Trump to ban strikes on energy infrastructure.
The agreements mark the most significant step yet towards a broader ceasefire. Previous attempts to establish a formal moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure—including planned talks in Qatar in August 2024—reportedly collapsed after Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region that same month. Elements of the new agreements also echo provisions set out in the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), brokered by the UN and Türkiye and signed by the parties in July 2022, along with the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Russia and the UN on facilitating Russian food and fertiliser exports. In July 2023, Russia announced that it would not renew the BSGI, allowing it to lapse the following day, citing the failure to implement what it termed the MoU’s five systemic objectives. Following the BSGI’s expiry, Russia declared that all vessels navigating the Black Sea would be treated as potential carriers of military cargo. Despite this warning, commercial navigation in the region largely continued in the following months. (For background and more information, see our 28 July 2022 and 16 July 2023 What’s in Blue stories.)
Following the US announcement earlier today, the Kremlin issued a statement outlining conditions for implementing the agreement. It indicated that the deal would take effect only once a series of sanctions-related restrictions are lifted. These include removing limitations on Russia’s state agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, and other financial institutions involved in the food and fertiliser trade. The steps would entail reconnecting these institutions to the SWIFT payment system. Among other things, the statement also called for lifting restrictions on trade finance transactions, companies producing and exporting food and fertilisers, and insurance services for such shipments.
The Kremlin’s statement further noted that Moscow and Washington had agreed to coordinate the implementation of a 30-day mutual moratorium on strikes targeting energy infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine, effective 18 March, with the possibility of extension or withdrawal in the event of non-compliance. In a separate statement issued today, the Kremlin detailed the categories of infrastructure covered under the arrangement. These include oil refineries; oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities; electricity generation and transmission infrastructure such as power plants, substations, transformers, and distribution facilities; as well as nuclear power plants and hydroelectric dams.
In response to the Kremlin’s statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concern over what he described as Moscow’s early attempts to distort the terms of the agreement. He confirmed that Ukraine is ready to implement the ceasefire in the energy sector immediately but criticised the Kremlin for tying the maritime ceasefire to the lifting of sanctions. Zelenskyy reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to full transparency and the swift implementation of the agreements, warning that any Russian violations would be met with a firm response. He argued that non-compliance by Moscow should trigger additional international sanctions and greater pressure.
Meanwhile, European countries have been coordinating their response in the event of a comprehensive ceasefire. On 16 March, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened a virtual meeting with leaders from 20 countries, calling for concrete security commitments to Ukraine and emphasising the need for credible enforcement mechanisms. On 20 March, senior military officials met in the UK to discuss the possible establishment of a “coalition of the willing” to provide such security arrangements should a ceasefire take hold. Although Russia has rejected the deployment of foreign troops—particularly from NATO countries—on Ukrainian territory, French President Emmanuel Macron has maintained that such deployments would not require Russian consent and reaffirmed that Ukraine must not be pressured into territorial concessions without strong security guarantees.
At tomorrow’s briefing, Msuya is expected to provide an overview of the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, likely drawing attention to the recent rise in civilian casualties. According to a report released by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on 11 March, 123 civilians were killed and 567 injured in February, marking a 35 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. The majority of casualties (77 percent) occurred near the front line, primarily in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. According to OHCHR, while casualty numbers have fluctuated, they remain consistently higher than in 2024.
Msuya may also reference a 21 March OHCHR report titled “The impact of the armed conflict and occupation on children’s rights in Ukraine”, which documents widespread violations of children’s rights following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Among other issues, the report notes that Ukraine has one of the highest prevalence of explosive remnants of war and landmines globally, which could continue to affect children into the future. It also says that children in the four regions annexed by Russia in 2024 (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia) have been particularly affected by violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including summary executions, arbitrary detention, conflict-related sexual violence, torture, and ill-treatment.
Msuya might also refer to the findings presented by the Commission of Inquiry (COI) on Ukraine to the Human Rights Council (HRC) on 19 March. COI Chair Erik Møse reported that one of the commission’s key recent conclusions is that Russian authorities committed enforced disappearances of Ukrainian civilians. Based on collected evidence, the Commission found that these enforced disappearances were carried out as part of a coordinated state policy, possibly constituting crimes against humanity.
Tomorrow, most Council members are expected to underscore the devastating and long-term impact of the war on civilians, highlighting its negative consequences on food security, the environment, and nuclear safety. They are likely to welcome the mutual moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, although some may criticise Russia for continuing aerial attacks despite the initial agreement in principle reached on 18 March. The maritime ceasefire agreement is also expected to be broadly welcomed as a positive step towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict. In this context, Council members are likely to call on the parties to seize the current momentum and engage in good-faith negotiations towards a comprehensive ceasefire. Some members, including the Council’s European members, may stress that broader ceasefire talks should not proceed without Ukraine’s full involvement. These members are expected to reaffirm their support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and argue that any peace agreement must include robust security guarantees to prevent future aggression against Ukraine and ensure a just, comprehensive, and durable settlement consistent with the principles of the UN Charter. Russia is likely to reiterate its view that Ukraine’s European allies are hindering progress on achieving a peaceful settlement to the conflict by providing military support to Kyiv.
