Bosnia and Herzegovina: Closed Consultations
This afternoon (6 March), Security Council members will hold closed consultations on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Russia requested the meeting in light of the BiH state court’s sentencing of Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik. On 26 February, the court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and ordered him to step down from his role as RS’ president following indictments for defying the decisions taken by High Representative for BiH Christian Schmidt. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief.
Background
The 1995 General Framework Agreement for Peace, also known as the Dayton Agreement, created two entities within BiH: the predominantly Bosniak and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the predominantly Serb Republika Srpska. The two entities are linked by a rotating tripartite inter-ethnic presidency and a two-chamber legislative branch with equal representation by the three major ethnic groups (Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs). Both entities also have their own executive and legislative branches.
The Dayton Agreement also established the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and the NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR) to oversee implementation of the agreement’s civilian and military aspects, respectively. In 1996, IFOR was replaced by the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR), which in turn was replaced in 2004 by the EU-led Multidimensional Stabilisation Force (EUFOR).
In December 1995, the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) was established to garner international support for the Dayton Agreement. In 1997, the PIC agreed to grant significant legislative powers to the High Representative—known as the “Bonn Powers”—including the ability to make binding decisions and unseat elected officials who are found to be in violation of legal commitments made under the Dayton Agreement or the terms of its implementation.
On 27 May 2021, the PIC issued a statement designating Schmidt as the High Representative for BiH. Russia, then a member of the PIC Steering Board, objected to the appointment, arguing that the decision was reached without the support of all PIC members and that Bosnian Serb representatives had not been adequately consulted. Furthermore, Russia argued that the appointment lacked the endorsement of the Security Council. In line with this argument, RS does not recognise Schmidt’s authority and has taken a series of steps challenging the authority of the OHR. However, the US and European members of the Council have traditionally maintained that the PIC’s authority to appoint High Representatives does not necessitate Security Council approval.
In response to legislation adopted by the National Assembly of the RS (RSNA) which sought to undermine the OHR’s decisions, on 1 July 2023 Schmidt amended BiH’s criminal code, enabling criminal prosecution of authorities or officials who fail to “apply, implement, enforce or otherwise comply with a decision of the High Representative”. In August 2023, the state prosecutor’s office of BiH filed charges against Dodik after he enacted two laws that Schmidt had previously annulled. The first law prevented enforcement of state-level constitutional court rulings in the entity, and another amended legislation on publishing official acts in the RS’ official gazette. Schmidt considered these laws to be an affront to BiH’s constitution and the terms of the Dayton Agreement. Dodik has long advocated for the secession of RS from BiH, and these laws aimed to expand RS’ autonomy from BiH’s central institutions.
On 26 February, the state court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and banned him from holding office as RS’ president for six years for defying the decisions of the High Representative. The decision is a first-instance verdict, meaning that both sides can appeal and that a second-instance verdict is expected to be delivered by the end of this year. In response to the sentencing, Dodik vowed to ignore the verdict, and the RSNA banned BiH’s state-level court and prosecutor’s office, as well as the State Investigation and Protection Agency and State Intelligence Agency from having jurisdiction in RS.
On 26 February, the RSNA also adopted a statement claiming that the state court decision was “rendered on the basis of a decision imposed by a foreign national, contrary to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and as such, constitutes a breach of the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
The Security Council traditionally holds two regular debates on BiH per year. The latest meeting on the situation in BIH outside this mandate cycle was requested by Russia in April 2024. In requesting that meeting, Russia cited concerns about the effect on the political situation of efforts by some member states to push for the adoption of a General Assembly resolution titled “International Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica”. (For more information, see our 29 April 2024 What’s In Blue story.)
Today’s Meeting
In requesting today’s meeting, Russia apparently said that the court’s decision has drastically worsened the internal situation in BiH, increased tensions, and is posing a serious threat to the Dayton Agreement. In a 27 February statement, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Dodik’s sentencing is politically motivated, expressed support for RS authorities, and stated that Russia is using all political means to prevent the situation from “developing into a negative track”. Hungary and Serbia have also voiced support for Dodik. Today’s meeting will also be the first opportunity for the Council’s new elected members (Denmark, Greece, Panama, Pakistan, and Somalia) to discuss the situation in BiH.
The role of the OHR remains a key divisive issue for the Council. China and Russia have both criticised Schmidt’s authority as High Representative and have in the past attempted to shutter the OHR through a Security Council resolution. (For more information, see our 21 July 2021 What’s in Blue story.) At the Council’s last regular meeting on BiH, held on 1 November 2024, China expressed concerns about controversies over the appointment of the High Representative and argued that Schmidt “has frequently used the Bonn powers to amend the laws of Bosnia and Herzegovina, giving rise to tensions and divisions within the country”. Russia has expressed similar concerns over Schmidt’s actions and has repeatedly challenged his legitimacy and mandate. During the same Council meeting, Russia called for the OHR’s closure, accusing it of interfering in BiH’s internal affairs and damaging the country’s post-conflict settlement process. China and Russia are expected to voice similar messages at today’s meeting, while underlining that BiH affairs are to be strictly decided and addressed by its own people.
On the other hand, several other Council members may underline their full support for the High Representative and his legitimacy and express concerns regarding RS legislation, which undermines the OHR and poses constitutional challenges for the country.
Several Council members may voice concerns about the RS’ and Dodik’s secessionist rhetoric that could obstruct national unity, BiH’s constitutional integrity, and hinder the fulfilment of the Dayton Agreement. In a 27 February statement, US Department of State Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that the US firmly opposes any actions by local BiH leaders that would undermine BiH’s security and stability. The US embassy in Sarajevo has also condemned the RSNA’s “unconstitutional and anti-Dayton legislation”.
In line with this, Council members are likely to call for de-escalation and for relevant actors to avoid inflammatory rhetoric and divisive actions at today’s meeting. The European members may also stress that BiH should instead focus its efforts on reforms which align with its European Union accession aspirations.
Council members are also expected to highlight their support for BiH’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, call for the fulfilment of the Dayton Agreement, and encourage constructive progress towards a peaceful, inclusive, and multi-ethnic society in BiH.
