Ukraine: Briefing under the “Threats to International Peace and Security” Agenda Item
On Monday morning (17 February), the Security Council will convene for an open briefing on Ukraine under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item. Russia requested the meeting to mark the tenth anniversary of the Security Council’s adoption of resolution 2202 of 17 February 2015, which endorsed the “Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, also known as the Minsk II agreement, signed on 12 February 2015. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and English musician and Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters are the anticipated briefers. Ukraine is expected to participate under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
Background
The Minsk agreements—Minsk I (signed on 5 September 2014) and Minsk II—outlined steps for ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine through a political settlement. The conflict, which erupted shortly after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, involved fighting between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists in the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
The Minsk II agreement—signed by Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and former separatist leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitski—was endorsed by the Security Council in resolution 2202. It stipulated a ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the withdrawal of military equipment by both sides. The agreement included a commitment by Kyiv to organise local elections and grant special status to the separatist-held areas in eastern Ukraine. It also called for the withdrawal of “all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries” from Ukraine and the reinstatement of Ukraine’s full control over its border.
Although the ceasefire led to a general reduction in violence, the agreement failed to achieve tangible progress. Up until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, fighting had claimed the lives of more than 14,000 people, including approximately 3,000 civilians, and injured more than 7,000 civilians, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). Between 2016 and 2021, the total number of conflict-related civilian deaths stood at 355.
Russia and Ukraine held divergent interpretations of the Minsk II agreement, particularly regarding the sequencing of steps for its implementation. Moscow insisted that Kyiv must first implement the political commitments and enact constitutional amendments recognising the special status of Donetsk and Luhansk, while Kyiv maintained that security measures took precedence, and that a ceasefire had to be established with Ukraine regaining control of its territory.
Moscow’s decision to recognise the independence of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on 21 February 2022 was seen by many countries as a violation of Russia’s commitments under the Minsk II agreement. At a 21 February 2022 Council briefing on Ukraine, for example, the US argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin had effectively “torn the Minsk agreements to shreds”. In contrast, Russia has claimed that the Minsk II agreement was a ploy by Ukraine and its allies to buy time to rearm Ukraine for an eventual confrontation with Russia. It has blamed Western countries for encouraging Kyiv to flout the Minsk agreements, justifying its invasion as a reaction to Ukraine’s failure to engage in dialogue with the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.
Monday’s Meeting
Since 2019, Russia has organised a Security Council meeting annually on the occasion of the anniversary of the Minsk II agreement. This year’s meeting will take place amid a flurry of diplomatic developments concerning Ukraine.
On 12 February, US President Donald Trump had a phone call with Putin, during which they agreed to start negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Following this conversation, Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to inform him of the planned negotiations. In response, several European countries issued a joint statement emphasising that both Ukraine and Europe must be included in any peace talks, while the Nordic-Baltic countries released a separate statement expressing the same position. On 13 February, Trump sought to clarify his remarks, stating that Ukraine, along with “other people involved”, would be part of the negotiations.
At Monday’s briefing, Jenča is expected to reaffirm the UN’s support for diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace in accordance with the UN Charter, international law, and General Assembly resolutions. In this regard, he may emphasise that addressing the root causes of the conflict, ensuring the full and equal participation of civil society, and upholding the principles of inclusive peacebuilding remain essential. In light of recent discussions about potential negotiations, he may echo the position expressed by UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq on Wednesday (12 February), welcoming any efforts to resolve the war that involve both Russia and Ukraine as direct participants.
Waters is likely to reiterate his call for an immediate ceasefire, emphasising the need for diplomacy over continued militarisation. He may reflect on past diplomatic efforts, including the Minsk Agreements, as missed opportunities for peace and urge all parties to engage in direct negotiations. Waters previously briefed the Council on 8 February 2023, at Russia’s invitation. At that meeting, some members questioned Waters’ qualifications as an expert briefer on European security issues.
At Monday’s meeting, Council members are expected to present sharply diverging views on the ineffective implementation of the Minsk II agreement and the role this has played in fuelling large-scale conflict in Ukraine. Some members are likely to criticise the meeting itself as part of a broader disinformation campaign by Russia aimed at rewriting history, reiterating their condemnation of Russia’s 2022 invasion as a blatant violation of international law and the UN Charter. These members may contend that Russia’s unilateral recognition of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in February 2022 rendered the Minsk Agreements void, ultimately paving the way for its full-scale invasion three days later. Russia, for its part, is expected to push back against this narrative, likely arguing that Ukraine failed to implement the Minsk Agreements by refusing to engage directly with representatives from the Donbas and that Western countries ignored Kyiv’s alleged sabotage of the accords.
Some members may seek to draw lessons from the Minsk Agreements, calling for their core provisions—such as an immediate ceasefire—to be revisited as part of a renewed diplomatic process. They may urge all parties to engage in good faith and emphasise the importance of dialogue under Chapter VI of the UN Charter. Others are likely to highlight the ongoing humanitarian crisis, condemning recent attacks on civilian infrastructure, including today’s (14 February) reported drone strike on the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, which damaged a protective shield designed to prevent further radiation leaks. While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that radiation levels remain stable, the attack may be cited as an example of the growing risks posed by continued hostilities.
On the subject of peace talks, some Council members may emphasise that there should be no negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine’s full participation. These members may also argue that any peace agreement must include robust security guarantees to prevent future aggression and ensure a just and lasting settlement, a position emphasised by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the 12 February meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Hegseth asserted that any future settlement “must not be Minsk 3.0”, while stating that NATO membership for Ukraine is not a realistic outcome of negotiations. He also suggested that Ukraine should consider territorial concessions, describing a return to pre-2014 borders as “unrealistic”. He proposed a security arrangement involving European and non-European troops under a non-NATO mission, with strict international oversight but no US troop deployment. The following day, Hegseth moderated his stance, stating that “everything is on the table”.
Looking ahead, the Security Council is expected to convene a briefing on 24 February to mark the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to request the resumption of the 11th Emergency Special Session (ESS) of the General Assembly on 24 February, during which member states will vote on a draft resolution on advancing a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace for Ukraine.
