Counter-Terrorism: Briefing on the Secretary-General’s Strategic-Level Report on ISIL/Da’esh
On Monday morning (10 February), the Security Council will convene for a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 20th biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh). Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman are expected to brief.
Voronkov and Gherman are likely to report that the threat posed by ISIL remains undiminished. The Secretary-General’s report (S/2025/72), which was circulated to Council members on 31 January, notes that ISIL continues to demonstrate resilience and adapt its modus operandi despite the steady progress made by member states in targeting its leadership and financial operations. The report also says that the group’s propaganda output “remained extensive” and indicates that it still has access to “significant cash reserves”, estimated at approximately $10 million in Iraq and Syria alone.
Council members are expected to focus on the situation in Syria and the possibility that ISIL will seek to expand its operations following the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The Secretary-General’s report refers to the risk of ISIL exploiting the volatile situation in the country to strengthen its position, noting that there are particular concerns that stockpiles of advanced weapons, including unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), could be seized by terrorists. In discussing this issue, some members might refer to the US airstrikes targeting ISIL operatives that were conducted in central Syria on 8 December 2024.
The report also describes the Syrian Badia region as “a centre for [ISIL] external operational planning” and a “critical region” for the group’s activities. It calls for integrating comprehensive counter-terrorism approaches that promote and protect international law, respect for human rights, and the rule of law into the political transition in Syria, and further says that incorporating access to justice, truth and reparation, and support to victims into the transition will help to overcome the long-term impact of terrorism. Some members might convey similar messages during Monday’s meeting.
Given recent media reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump has expressed an interest in withdrawing US troops from Syria, members could be particularly interested in the statement delivered by the US. These reports come several months after Iraq and the US announced that the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIL will conclude its mission in Iraq by the end of September and transition to bilateral security partnerships with Iraqi security forces.
The situation of individuals with alleged links or family ties to ISIL held in detention in northeastern Syria is expected to be raised on Monday. According to the Secretary-General’s report, an estimated 42,500 people are currently detained in the Hawl and Rawj camps, where living conditions remain dire and detainees continue to face insecurity and violence, including gender-based violence and sexual exploitation. Media outlets have recently reported that the camps may also be affected by the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid.
The Secretary-General’s report notes that places of detention in Syria have become “less well secured” since the fall of the Assad government and refers to the difficulties facing humanitarian workers, including access constraints and threats to their safety. It also reiterates the Secretary-General’s call for member states to repatriate their nationals in these facilities in line with their obligations under international law. Some members may echo this call and highlight the importance of effective repatriation, prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration programmes in their statements.
Developments in other regions are also likely to be discussed. According to the Secretary-General’s report, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K)—ISIL’s Afghan affiliate—poses the predominant terrorist threat, both within Afghanistan and beyond its borders. The report says that ISIL-K supporters have plotted attacks in Europe, including in France, where authorities arrested an 18-year-old who planned to carry out an attack on French soil in July 2024. It also highlights the 11 December 2024 ISIL-K suicide bombing that killed Taliban Minister of Refugees and Repatriation Khalil Ahmed Haqqani, noting that it may have been an attempt to undermine the Taliban’s claims regarding its ability to maintain security in Afghanistan.
In discussing the extraterritorial threat posed by ISIL, members might refer to the 1 January terrorist attack in New Orleans, which was carried out by an individual claiming to have been inspired by the group.
Members are expected to address ISIL’s activities in Africa in their statements. The Secretary-General’s report expresses concern regarding the sustained terrorist threat on the continent, where ISIL and its affiliates have continued to focus on expanding territorial control and raising funds. The situation is particularly serious in the Sahel. The report describes the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which is suspected of carrying out a recent attack that killed 20 Nigerian soldiers, as “one of the most operationally active [ISIL] affiliates”. It also refers to the growing frequency of attacks perpetrated by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS), as well as the steady expansion of areas under its control. The report further highlights the reemergence of Lakurawa in northwestern Nigeria and says that member states suspect the group is affiliated with ISGS. Regarding Somalia, which joined the Council earlier this year, the report says that ISIL’s operational capabilities in the country have evolved significantly and indicates that approximately half of the members of its Somali affiliate are foreign terrorist fighters.
Some members may refer to ISIL’s recent leadership losses. The Secretary-General’s report notes that approximately half of the group’s senior leadership in Iraq, including its “so-called deputy governor”, were killed in recent counter-terrorism operations conducted by the Iraqi government. Additionally, several media outlets have reported that a senior leader of ISIL’s Somali affiliate was recently captured by security forces in Puntland state. The reports came shortly after the US carried out a series of airstrikes targeting ISIL operatives in Somalia on 1 February.
Council members are also likely to discuss the prevention of terrorism. The Secretary-General’s report observes that the “sustained high level of the threat posed by [ISIL]” in the face of significant counter-terrorism efforts provides “a constant reminder of the limits of security-centred approaches”. It further says that such measures must be accompanied by comprehensive approaches and encourages member states to develop prevention strategies grounded in sustainable development, the rule of law, and human rights. Several Council members may make similar points in their statements, including by emphasising the importance of whole-of-society approaches to counter-terrorism that respect human rights, align with international law, and address the root causes of violence and terrorism. Some members may also note that the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL/Da’esh and Al-Qaida sanctions regime is an important tool for preventing terrorism and encourage member states to play a more active role in its implementation.
Council members could also choose to focus on the use of new and emerging technologies by ISIL and its affiliates. The Secretary-General’s report indicates that member states have continued to note the widespread accessibility of advanced technology, such as 3D printing and artificial intelligence (AI), and further says that AI could be used by terrorist groups to recruit and radicalise young people. Some Council members might express concern regarding these findings during Monday’s meeting.
The Secretary-General’s report also notes that the mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ ISIL (UNITAD) ended in September 2024. UNITAD produced 19 case assessments and analytical reports regarding potential crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide committed by ISIL, and also contributed to the collection and archival of extensive evidence for use in future criminal proceedings. Some members may commend UNITAD’s work on Monday.
