Ukraine: Briefing
This afternoon (16 January), the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine. Slovenia and the US—the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine—requested the meeting to receive a general update on developments. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer. Ukraine and several regional countries are expected to participate under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
Today’s briefing is likely to be the last Security Council meeting on Ukraine before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on 20 January. Diplomatic efforts surrounding the war in Ukraine have intensified following Trump’s election, whose approach has been both a source of cautious optimism and concern among Ukraine and its Western allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed hope that Trump’s “unpredictability” could help end the war, contingent on robust security guarantees and further integration with NATO and the European Union (EU). Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, although his incoming special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, recently acknowledged the complexity of the conflict, setting a goal of resolving it within 100 days.
Trump’s public statements have raised concerns due to their mixed and at times contradictory nature. On 8 December 2024, he called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump also suggested a potential reduction in US aid to Ukraine, casting doubts on NATO’s future under his leadership. However, in an interview published on 12 December 2024, Trump acknowledged that “the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon” Ukraine, indicating that he might use US military support as leverage to press Moscow to enter into negotiations. He also criticised the current administration of US President Joe Biden for allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory, while hinting at potential policy reversals. Meanwhile, the EU has signalled its readiness to assume a leading role in supporting Ukraine should US assistance falter.
On 7 January, Trump expressed understanding for Russia’s stance that Ukraine should not join NATO. Two days later, on 9 January, he announced plans to arrange a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin—an initiative welcomed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who praised Trump for identifying NATO expansion as a root cause of the conflict. Both Serbia and Switzerland have separately offered to host this prospective meeting.
On 6 January, French President Emmanuel Macron urged Ukraine to hold a “realistic discussion on the territorial questions” and called on the US to pressure Russia into negotiations. Russia has made significant battlefield advances in recent months—gaining over 4,000 square kilometres last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based non-profit public policy research organisation—and some analysts argue that Putin has an incentive to delay agreement on a negotiated settlement as Russia tries to obtain additional territory.
At today’s briefing, DiCarlo is likely to highlight the devastation caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine. As at 9 January, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) had documented 40,838 civilian casualties since February 2022, including at least 12,456 deaths, while noting that true figures are likely to be higher as some reports are still pending confirmation. OHCHR has confirmed that over 2,500 children have been killed or injured in the war. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine continues to worsen, exacerbated by a surge in hostilities that has sharply increased needs near the front lines, according to a 30 December 2024 Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) humanitarian situation report. Approximately 40,000 people were displaced from front line areas in October and November 2024.
Russia has continued to launch air assaults on military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, causing extensive damage to energy facilities, disrupting electricity access for millions of Ukrainians, and compromising water supply in certain areas. On 8 January, a Russian attack involving aerial glide bombs on the city of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine killed at least 13 civilians and wounded approximately 110 others. The attack caused the highest number of civilian casualties in a single incident in almost two years, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU).
At an 8 January briefing on Ukraine to the Human Rights Council (HRC), Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif said that “relentless attacks with aerial glide bombs, long-range missiles, and drones contributed to the killing of some 574 civilians–an increase of 30 percent over the previous year”. She noted that Russian authorities also reported civilian casualties in Kursk and other Russian regions resulting from attacks by the Ukrainian military. Al-Nashif expressed concern about the potential increased use of anti-personnel landmines as well as by the impacts on civilians of the increased use of drones and the use of new weapons. She noted in this regard that Russia launched around 2,000 long-range drones in November 2024 alone and increased the use of aerial bombs with glide modifications that allow them to travel much farther, in densely populated areas, including in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.
At today’s meeting, Council members are expected to reaffirm their established positions on the war in Ukraine. Several members are likely to underscore their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders, while others are expected to emphasise the need for intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a negotiated settlement to the war. (For more information, see the brief on Ukraine in our December 2024 Monthly Forecast.)
Today’s meeting will also provide an opportunity for the Council’s five new elected members—Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia—to highlight their main areas of concern regarding the war in Ukraine.
Several members are expected to voice alarm about alleged weapons supplies to Russia by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran for use against Ukraine, as well as the reported involvement of DPRK troops in the war. Some may note that Putin is expected to host Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow tomorrow (17 January) to sign a strategic partnership agreement.
Russia is expected to reaffirm its position on the conflict. In a 30 December 2024 interview, Lavrov stated that Moscow had not received any formal indications from Washington about a potential settlement in Ukraine. He also voiced dissatisfaction with proposals from members of Trump’s team to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and deploy British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. Lavrov emphasised Russia’s preference for “reliable and legally binding agreements” that would address the root causes of the conflict and “seal a mechanism precluding the possibility of their violation”.
Russia plans to organise an Arria-formula meeting later this month, focusing on alleged atrocities by Ukrainian forces in the town of Selydove, which is located in the Donetsk region of Ukraine and was captured by Russian troops in October 2024. On 13 January, the UK, together with several other co-sponsors, convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “Violations of international humanitarian law against Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilian detainees”. (For more information, see our 12 January What’s in Blue story.)