What's In Blue

Posted Fri 17 Jan 2025
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The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question: Quarterly Open Debate

On Monday (20 January), the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Attaf will chair the meeting. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is the expected briefer.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas announced on 15 January is expected to be the key focus of Monday’s meeting. The ceasefire will commence on 19 January. If it holds, it will end the 15-month war in Gaza. During the first phase of the ceasefire, which is expected to last six weeks, Hamas will release 33 hostages (including women, children, sick and wounded, and people over the age of 50) in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian detainees. Israeli troops will withdraw from densely populated areas, and displaced Palestinians will be able to return to their communities. (Some 90 percent of the population of Gaza has been displaced during the war). In addition, humanitarian aid coming into Gaza is expected to be significantly increased, with 600 trucks, including 50 carrying fuel, entering each day. (According to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), the equivalent of 51 aid trucks, excluding fuel, entered Gaza each day from 1 to 5 January on average.)

Negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, which is expected to last six weeks, will commence during the first phase. Phase II envisions a permanent end to the hostilities, with Israeli troops withdrawing from the Gaza Strip and an exchange of all remaining hostages and prisoners. In the third and final phase of the agreement, also expected to last six weeks, the bodies of the deceased held by both parties will be returned, and the reconstruction of Gaza will begin.

At Monday’s open debate, Guterres and Council members are expected to welcome the ceasefire agreement and urge Israel and Hamas to commit to its full and timely implementation in good faith.

Guterres is likely to reiterate the key messages featured in his 15 January statement welcoming the agreement’s announcement. He said that the UN stands ready to support the implementation of the agreement and scale up the delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza. In this respect, he called on all parties to facilitate the rapid and safe delivery of humanitarian aid and underscored the importance of removing “the significant security and political obstacles to delivering aid across Gaza”.

Council members are similarly expected to stress the importance of the ceasefire rapidly leading to a surge in humanitarian aid. On 17 January, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Farhan Haq said that, in preparation for the ceasefire, the UN and its humanitarian partners are mobilising supplies and resources to scale up the delivery of aid across the Gaza Strip, including by increasing “the pipeline of goods into Gaza via all available crossings and prepare for distributions within Gaza”. He added that 80,000 tons of food assistance, sufficient to feed one million people for three months, is “on standby for entry to Gaza as soon as possible”.

As the expiration of the three-month period for the entry into force of two laws on UNRWA passed by the Israeli Knesset (parliament) in October 2024 is approaching, several members are likely to highlight UNRWA’s essential role in the humanitarian response in Gaza and to call for the Agency to be allowed to provide assistance to Palestinians. (Council members discussed the situation of UNRWA in closed consultations on 17 January and are expected to hold an open briefing on this issue on 28 January. For background, see our 16 January What’s in Blue story and the brief on the MEPQ in our November 2024 Monthly Forecast.)

Some members might also call for full accountability for all violations of international humanitarian and human rights law perpetrated during the war.

On Monday, Guterres and many Council members may note that the devastation wrought by the war underscores the need to reinvigorate a political process between Israelis and Palestinians leading to a two-state solution. Guterres may note, as he did in his 15 January statement, that while the agreement constitutes “a critical first step”, efforts should be made to advance broader objectives, such as “the preservation of the unity, contiguity, and integrity of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. Some Council members, such as Algeria and Pakistan, may call for ending the occupation and establishing an independent and sovereign Palestinian state. In his 15 January statement Guterres also noted that “Palestinian unity is essential for achieving lasting peace and stability”, and stressed that “unified Palestinian governance must remain a top priority”, a message that he is likely to reiterate on Monday.

Council members might also raise recent regional developments in the Middle East. Several members might welcome the 26 November 2024 cessation of hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon and call on the parties to faithfully implement its provisions, echoing the Council’s 16 January presidential statement (S/PRST/2025/1). Some members may also welcome the 9 January election of President of the Republic of Lebanon Joseph Aoun and the designation on 13 January of Nawaf Salam as prime minister. After the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, some members may call for an inclusive political transition process and express support for the principles outlined in resolution 2254 of 18 December 2015, which focused on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Some members might underscore the importance of the sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity of Syria for the stability of the broader region. Several members might express concern about the continuing hostilities in some parts of the country and call on relevant parties to maintain calm and agree to a nationwide ceasefire.

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