What's In Blue

Posted Wed 29 Jan 2025
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Syria: Closed Consultations

Tomorrow morning (30 January), Security Council members will convene for closed consultations on Syria. Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen is expected to brief via videoconference (VTC) from Damascus. Algeria, January’s Council president, called for the meeting in its national capacity to receive an update about developments in the country.

Tomorrow’s session will be the second time this month that Security Council members meet to discuss the situation in Syria, after having held their regular meeting on political and humanitarian developments on 8 January. The Council has met regularly to discuss the rapidly evolving situation in the country since the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024 following an offensive launched by rebel forces, involving Security Council-listed terrorist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). (For background and more information, see the brief on Syria in our January 2025 Monthly Forecast and 7 January What’s in Blue story.)

Pedersen may note that, on 29 January, military commanders of several armed groups that participated in the offensive that ousted Assad held a conference, where they declared Ahmed al-Sharaa, HTS’ leader, as transitional president. The conference also reportedly decided to suspend the Syrian constitution and authorised Sharaa to form a temporary legislative council for the transitional phase. It was also reportedly announced that Syria’s military and security agencies will be dissolved and replaced by new security institutions and army and that all armed factions in Syria are to be dissolved and absorbed into the new national army; however, specific details remain unclear.

Pedersen is expected to elaborate on his recent engagement with stakeholders in the country. On 20 January, the Special Envoy arrived in Syria for his second visit since Assad’s ouster. He met with a wide range of Syrian stakeholders, including Sharaa and caretaker foreign minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani as well as civil society representatives. In a 22 January press conference in Damascus, Pedersen highlighted that there is strong international consensus in support of a successful and inclusive political transition in Syria. At the same time, he outlined several challenges and issues that need to be addressed, including the unification of various armed groups into a single national army, the ongoing insecurity in the northeast, the need to protect all Syrians, the political transition, the need for transitional justice, the issue of sanctions, economic recovery and reconstruction, and the Israeli presence in Syria. The Special Envoy also welcomed assurances and commitments from the Syrian caretaker authorities regarding the protection of civilians and positive messaging regarding an inclusive political transition.

At tomorrow’s meeting, Pedersen and several Council members are likely to reiterate support for the principles outlined in resolution 2254 of 18 December 2015, which focused on a political solution to the Syria crisis. They may stress the need for a Syrian-led, Syrian-owned inclusive political transition that could result in establishing a non-sectarian and representative governance structure, while safeguarding Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. Members are likely to underline the importance of the UN’s facilitation role in the transitional process and may also be interested in the Special Envoy’s views on how the UN is being received by the caretaker authorities. Additionally, some members may seek further details about the caretaker authorities’ plans for the national dialogue conference, announced in late December 2024, which aims to unite Syria’s diverse political and sectarian groups to discuss the political transition. A timeline for the organisation of the national dialogue has not yet been specified by the caretaker authorities.

Pedersen and some members may voice alarm about the continuing hostilities in the northeast, stress the need to address tensions between the various military factions, and call on relevant parties to maintain calm and agree to a nationwide ceasefire. They are also likely to underline the imperative to protect civilians, including religious and ethnic minorities, and highlight the need to ensure accountability for past crimes and atrocities. Several members might also emphasise the need to ensure that women and minorities enjoy equal, meaningful participation in the new Syria. Some members might raise concern about reports of arrests, detentions, and incidents of extrajudicial and revenge killings in some parts of the country, particularly targeting the Alawite community and supporters of the former Assad government. In this regard, they may call on the Syrian caretaker authorities to maintain law and order in areas under their control and prevent occurrences of reprisal attacks.

There have been reports of clashes in eastern Aleppo governorate, near the Tishrin Dam in the city of Manbij, as well as in the northern Al-Hasakeh governorate, between the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of armed groups allegedly backed by Türkiye. The fighting has also reportedly included airstrikes and drone strikes by the Turkish military on SDF locations.

Negotiations are reportedly underway to determine the future of Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Media reports suggest that the SDF proposed maintaining its autonomy as a military bloc within the Syrian army, which the caretaker authorities rejected. Sharaa has reportedly recently said that the SDF is the only armed group that has not yet surrendered its weapons to the caretaker authorities. Further reports indicate that the caretaker authorities have also deployed forces to the northeast, raising concerns of a potential military confrontationTomorrow, Pedersen is likely to warn about the dangers of a full-scale military confrontation in northeast Syria, while highlighting the key role of the US and Türkiye in supporting negotiations between the caretaker authorities and the SDF. Council members may echo these concerns, while some may also mention the need to prevent the resurgence of extremist or terrorist groups, including the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh).

Some members might also express concerns about Israeli actions on Syrian territory. Following Assad’s ouster, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes across Syria, targeting military equipment and positions. It also launched a ground incursion, extending its control further into the Golan and Syrian territory. Since HTS rose to power, it has indicated that it does not seek confrontation with Israel. However, Sharaa has reportedly stressed that Israel’s actions on Syrian territory are unacceptable, adding that “we will apply pressure” if the situation continues. Pedersen and several members are likely to stress that Israeli actions are in violation of international law and undermine Syria’s territorial integrity. Some members—including Algeria, Pakistan, and Russia—may strongly call for the immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Syrian territory.

The issue of sanctions may also be discussed. During a 22 January meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Shaibani emphasised that the lifting of economic sanctions is “key” for stability in Syria and confirmed that the caretaker authorities are working towards opening the country’s economy to foreign investment. Pedersen has often stressed the need to lift sanctions to advance efforts towards rebuilding Syria. On 27 January,  European Union (EU) foreign affairs ministers endorsed a roadmap to ease some of the bloc’s sanctions on Syria, while keeping others—such as those on weapons—in place. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said that the EU remains open to further easing sanctions, contingent upon the authorities taking meaningful steps in the “right direction”. The first sanctions to be lifted reportedly concern the energy, banking, and transport sectors, which are considered essential for Syria’s reconstruction and stability. On 6 January, the administration of former US President Joe Biden issued a six-month sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria. It remains to be seen how the new Trump administration will address this issue.

Council members may also highlight the significant humanitarian needs in Syria and call on the international community to scale up assistance towards improving aid distribution. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has raised concerns about insecurity stemming from the attacks in Syria’s northeast, economic challenges across the country due to suspended bank services and high fuel costs, as well as challenges due to large numbers of Syrian returnees who often lack access to adequate shelter.

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