Myanmar: Closed Consultations
This afternoon (30 January), Security Council members will convene for closed consultations on Myanmar. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar Julie Bishop and Head of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham are expected to brief. The UK, the penholder on the file, requested the meeting. Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun (Myanmar) and Ambassador James Kariuki (UK) are scheduled to hold a press encounter before the session.
Today’s meeting is being held shortly before the fourth anniversary of the military takeover of Myanmar’s government, which took place on 1 February 2021. Bishop is expected to take stock of developments since the coup and provide an update on the overall situation in the country. She is likely to reiterate several of the core points previously conveyed by Secretary-General António Guterres, including some of those made in his 6 June 2024 statement, which expressed deep concern about the increasing violence in the country and strongly condemned reported attacks by the Myanmar military on civilians. The statement also reiterated Guterres’ appeal for a unified approach and called on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, prioritise protection of civilians, and prevent further incitement of communal tension and violence.
Members are expected to be interested in the work undertaken by Bishop since she last briefed the Council in November 2024. During a 29 October 2024 briefing to the Third Committee of the General Assembly, Bishop told member states that she had met with the leader of Myanmar’s military, Min Aung Hlaing, in Naypyidaw and engaged with both civil society and opposition groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG), an alliance of politicians ousted during the February 2021 coup. She also said that she had met with representatives of China, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand and mentioned that she planned to travel to India and Bangladesh. Bishop recently attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where she met with Secretary-General of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Kao Kim Hourn and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
Council members are likely to be interested in hearing Bishop’s analysis of recent developments in the conflict between the Myanmar military and opposition groups. In mid-December 2024, the Arakan Army, an armed group based in Rakhine state, claimed to have seized control of the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar after capturing a military outpost in the western town of Maungdaw. The announcement came after the military suffered a series of setbacks in 2024, with some media outlets reporting that it may now control less than half of the territory in the country.
These setbacks appear to have prompted the military to pursue dialogue with some opposition groups. On 20 January, China announced that it had brokered a ceasefire between the military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The group had previously seized large tracts of territory in Shan state after forming the Three Brotherhood Alliance with the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and launching “Operation 1027” in late October 2023. The TNLA has also reportedly conveyed its willingness to engage in dialogue and expressed appreciation for the Chinese mediation efforts. Members might be interested in hearing more about these developments and their potential effects on the conflict, particularly given that “Operation 1027” is widely considered to have sparked military action by armed groups in other parts of the country and encouraged greater cooperation among them.
Members may also choose to discuss the elections that the military has foreshadowed holding in 2025. In a speech published in state media at the beginning of this year, Min Aung Hlaing highlighted the military’s planned elections and referred to the census held in October 2024 in preparation for the vote. The NUG has strongly criticised the proposed elections, describing them as unlawful and saying that they “will only lead to violence and threaten regional stability”. According to media reports, the NUG has also prepared a 12-point plan for opposing the vote.
Members are likely to welcome the appointment of Tan Sri Othman bin Hashim as Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair for Myanmar. Othman’s appointment was recently announced by Malaysia, which assumed ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship for 2025 on 1 January. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan has reportedly indicated that Othman will visit Myanmar “very soon”.
Members are also expected to discuss the efforts of ASEAN and its member states to resolve the conflict in Myanmar more broadly. In mid-December 2024, Thailand hosted two separate informal meetings on consecutive days to discuss the crisis; one for neighbouring countries and another for ASEAN foreign ministers. The first meeting was reportedly attended by representatives of Bangladesh, China, India, Laos, Thailand, and the Myanmar military, while the second was attended by all ASEAN members, albeit at different levels. According to media reports, the military’s top diplomat, Than Swe, participated in the first meeting and briefed attendees on its plans for the proposed elections. Following the second meeting, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa also told reporters that “if there is an election, ASEAN would want an inclusive process that included all stakeholders”.
On 19 January, ASEAN held a foreign ministers’ retreat in Langkawi, Malaysia. In a press statement issued in connection with the retreat, attendees expressed concern over the escalation of the conflict and the minimal progress made in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC). (Agreed during an April 2021 ASEAN leaders’ meeting, the 5PC called for the immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue, a special envoy of the ASEAN chair to facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, humanitarian assistance, and a visit to Myanmar by the ASEAN Special Envoy to meet with all parties concerned.) The press statement also reaffirmed that “the 5PC remains our main reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar” and “upheld” ASEAN’s previous decision to limit Myanmar’s participation at ASEAN summits and foreign ministers’ meetings to non-political representation. In remarks delivered on the sidelines of the retreat, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said that “we told [Myanmar] the election is not a priority. The priority now is to cease fire.”
At today’s meeting, Rajasingham is expected to update members on the humanitarian situation in the country. According to OCHA’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP), 19.9 million people—over a third of the population—are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in Myanmar. The HNRP also says that there are “widespread and systematic violations of human rights including lack of adherence and compliance to international humanitarian law”, as well as “widespread fighting impacting vast areas” and 3.5 million internally displaced people (IDPs). It further notes that Myanmar is one of the world’s most underfunded humanitarian crises, with only 34 percent of the funding required for the 2024 HNRP received by early December last year.
Several Council members are expected to focus on the escalating violence against civilians, including the ongoing use of airstrikes by the military. Some members might refer to a 2 December 2024 statement issued by a group of independent human rights experts that are part of the special procedures of the Human Rights Council (HRC), which noted that more than 6,000 civilians have been killed since the February 2021 coup and called for a “course correction” in the international response to the crisis. In discussing attacks on civilians, some members might choose to highlight the situation of the Rohingya and may express support for the high-level conference on the Rohingya and other minorities in Myanmar requested in a December 2024 General Assembly resolution.
Council members are also expected to use today’s meeting as an opportunity to discuss the draft resolution on Myanmar first circulated by the UK in late August 2024. Despite the continuing deterioration in the situation on the ground, Council members have not been able to agree on a product since adopting resolution 2669 in December 2022. Some members may highlight this fact and urge the Council to take a more active role on the file, including by holding meetings more regularly. Members could also choose to ask Bishop whether there is anything that could be included in the resolution that would assist with her work.
The meeting will give the Security Council’s five new elected members—Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia—a chance to state their positions on Myanmar for the first time since joining the Council. Members will also be assessing whether there has been a shift in the US position on the file since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.