What's In Blue

Posted Sat 11 Jan 2025
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Lebanon: Closed Consultations

On Monday morning (13 January), Security Council members are expected to hold closed consultations on Lebanon. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix are the anticipated briefers.

France, the penholder on Lebanon, requested the meeting for Council members to receive an update on the implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Lebanon ahead of the expiry of the 60-day deadline outlined in the agreement for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to withdraw south of the Blue Line and, in parallel, for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to deploy to positions south of the Litani river. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. While not representing an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states.)

Brokered by the US and France, the cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Lebanon entered into effect on 27 November 2024 following over 13 months of hostilities involving primarily Israel and Hezbollah. (For background, see our 3 December 2024 What’s in Blue story, the brief on Lebanon in our November 2024 Monthly Forecast, and the brief on “The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in our January 2025 Monthly Forecast.) The announcement of the cessation of hostilities—which was circulated by France and the US in a 29 November 2024 letter to the Security Council (S/2024/870)—frames the agreement as a set of “understandings” that reflect “steps to which Israel and Lebanon are committed” in order to fully implement resolution 1701. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah based on a series of principles, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river in Lebanon of “an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons” other than those of the government of Lebanon and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), as well as “no foreign forces” in Lebanon without its government’s consent.

The cessation of hostilities announcement says that, upon the entry into effect of the cessation of hostilities, the Lebanese government will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, while Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets in the territory of Lebanon. It also notes that the LAF will begin carrying out several tasks, including dismantling unauthorised infrastructure and confiscating unauthorised arms and related materiel. According to the agreement, the phased withdrawal of the IDF south of the Blue Line and the parallel deployment of the LAF south of the Litani river “should not exceed 60 days” (that is, by 4 am local time 26 January).

On Monday, Council members are likely to welcome the cessation of hostilities agreement and call for its full implementation. Lacroix and several members are expected to note that, since the cessation of hostilities, the overall level of violence between Israel and Hezbollah has decreased. At the same time, participants are also likely to emphasise that challenges remain.

According to a 4 January Associated Press article, Hezbollah has “for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel”. The article says that Israel has “stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon”, while also launching “regular airstrikes” on what it says are Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley. Israel has also accused Hezbollah of “attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed”. In a 26 December 2024 statement, UNIFIL expressed “concern at continuing destruction by the IDF in residential areas, agricultural land, and road networks in south Lebanon”.

Israel and Lebanon have also accused each other of being slow to withdraw from and deploy to southern Lebanon. According to media reports, the US is apparently seeking an extension of the 60-day deadline stipulated in the agreement for the respective withdrawal and deployment.

In its 26 December 2024 statement, UNIFIL urged Israel and Lebanon to utilise the mechanism outlined in the cessation of hostilities agreement to address any outstanding issues, a message that Lacroix might reiterate at Monday’s meeting. This refers to a reformulated version of the tripartite mechanism established following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, which consisted of representatives of UNIFIL, the IDF, and the LAF, and was chaired by the UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander. Under the terms of the cessation of hostilities, the revised mechanism also includes France and the US—which chairs the mechanism—and is hosted by UNIFIL. The revised mechanism is tasked with monitoring, verifying, and assisting in “ensuring enforcement” of the commitments outlined in the cessation of hostilities. On Monday, some Council members are likely to be interested in receiving an update from Lacroix regarding the work of the revised mechanism thus far, as well as UNIFIL’s role in this context.

UNIFIL’s statement further says that the mission is working closely with the LAF “as they accelerate recruitment efforts and redeploy troops to the south” and that it stands ready to support Israel and Lebanon to meet their obligations, including regarding the absence of any armed personnel, assets or weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL south of the Litani river, as well as respect for the Blue Line. On Monday, Council members may seek more details from Lacroix on how UNIFIL is working with the parties towards these objectives and whether the mission has sufficient capacity to support the parties’ implementation of these tasks, such as resources to assist the LAF in clearing unexploded ordnance and mines. Members are also likely to emphasise the importance of ensuring the safety and security of UNIFIL peacekeepers and of removing any impediment to their freedom of movement in their area of operations.

Hennis-Plasschaert is likely to provide an update on the political and humanitarian situations in Lebanon. She is likely to welcome the 9 January election of former LAF Commander Joseph Aoun as President of the Republic of Lebanon. In a statement issued on the same day, Hennis-Plasschaert said, among other things, that the election offers “an opportunity to pave the way for progress towards consolidating the cessation of hostilities and preserving the country’s security and stability”. Aoun’s election ended a vacuum of over two years, during which opposing politico-sectarian blocs in Lebanon were unable to agree on a candidate.

On Monday, Hennis-Plasschaert and Council members may call for the appointment by Aoun of a prime minister and the formation of a government as soon as possible. (Lebanon’s government has been in caretaker status since the 15 May 2022 legislative elections.) Several members may reiterate the messages contained in the press elements issued by Council members on 9 January following a meeting on Lebanon under “any other business”. The press elements welcomed Aoun’s election; reaffirmed support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence of Lebanon; and called for the full implementation of resolution 1701 and previous relevant resolutions on the situation in Lebanon.

At the time of writing, Council members were negotiating a draft presidential statement circulated by France on 9 January. It seems that the draft statement welcomes Aoun’s election and stresses the importance of the formation of a government. It also apparently welcomes the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon and calls for its full implementation.

This follows an attempt by France in December 2024 to garner consensus on a draft presidential statement that similarly welcomed the cessation of hostilities, but also recalled Israel’s and Lebanon’s commitments under the cessation of hostilities agreement, expressed deep concern over violations of the agreement, and called for all violations to stop. After a period of negotiations, the US apparently requested on 27 December 2024 an extended pause in the negotiations, citing concerns that the draft presidential statement could risk complicating de-escalation and compliance with the agreement on the ground. It seems that this concern was not shared by other Council members, which had apparently supported the adoption of the draft presidential statement.

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