Vote to Renew the Sanctions Regime on Al-Shabaab*
Tomorrow morning (13 December), the Security Council is expected to hold a meeting under the agenda item “Peace and security in Africa” to vote on a draft resolution concerning the 2713 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime. The draft text, which was authored by the UK (the penholder on Somalia), renews the authorisation for maritime interdiction to enforce the embargo on illicit arms imports, the charcoal exports ban, and the improvised explosive device (IED) components ban until 28 February 2025. (Other measures of the regime—including general and targeted arms embargo measures, travel ban, and assets freeze—are open-ended.)
The short draft text in blue is a technical rollover that extends the measures contained in resolution 2713 of 1 December 2023, which renewed for one year the Al-Shabaab sanctions regime, including the authorisation for maritime interdiction, as well as the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee. (The term “technical rollover” is commonly used by diplomats to describe a concise resolution extending a peace operation’s mandate without altering its core mandate or tasks. It traditionally denotes an extension for a shorter period than is customary.) The draft resolution in blue also renews the mandate of the PoE until 31 March 2025 and expresses the Council’s intention to review the Panel’s mandate and take appropriate actions regarding its further extension by 28 February 2025.
Background
The PoE assisting the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee submitted its final report on 15 October. The report said that Al-Shabaab remains the most significant threat to the peace and security of Somalia and that its ability to carry out complex attacks against the Somali government, the African Union (AU) Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), and international forces remains undiminished. The report highlighted that the key sources of resupply for Al-Shabaab remain the group’s overrunning of Somali National Army and ATMIS bases and diversion of weapons from these bases, spillovers from regional conflicts, and illicit trafficking networks.
The report acknowledged a significant shift in the strength and disposition of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) faction in Somalia (ISIL-Somalia). It noted that ISIL-Somalia, led by a cadre of former Al-Shabaab militants based in the Bari region of Puntland, has recently seen an influx of foreign fighters, which has expanded and enhanced the group’s capabilities against Al-Shabaab. The report estimated that the group has likely doubled in size, partly due to the influx of foreign fighters, with current estimates placing the group’s size between 600 and 700 fighters. Additionally, the report highlighted the re-emergence of Somali piracy, with more than 25 attacks, including hijackings, reported on commercial vessels and dhows since 24 November 2023.
The final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee, dated 11 October, cited confidential sources suggesting that the Houthi rebel group in Yemen is exploring options to extend its area of operation and carry out attacks at sea from the Somali coast. According to the report, the Houthis are reportedly deepening their collaboration with Al-Shabaab to that end. The report indicated increased smuggling activities between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, mostly involving small arms and light weapons, which may point to either supply and illicit arms transfers between the groups, a shared supplier, or both.
On 15 October, the Secretary-General submitted a report pursuant to resolution 2713 providing an update on progress in achieving the indicators outlined in the ten benchmarks contained in his 15 September 2022 technical assessment report on Somalia’s weapons and ammunition capacity. The 15 October report indicated that progress had been incremental at the federal government level. It also noted that an urgent challenge is extending the weapons and ammunition management frameworks, processes, and structures to the federal member state level, considering the different needs, priorities, and perspectives of each state. The report added that countering the illicit flow of arms and ammunition into Somalia also remains a critical issue. Another challenge is to apply the weapons and ammunition management frameworks to the weapons held by clan militias, “community defence forces”, and civilians.
Negotiations on the Draft Resolution
The UK circulated an initial draft of the resolution to all Council members on 5 December. After receiving comments, the penholder shared a revised draft and placed it under silence procedure until Tuesday (10 December). Russia apparently broke silence, after which some members made comments. The penholder then placed another revised text under silence procedure until yesterday morning (11 December), which was extended at the request of Russia and the US until 1 pm yesterday. The draft text passed silence and was subsequently put in blue. Although a vote was initially planned for this morning (12 December), it was moved to tomorrow apparently because of a conflict in the schedule.
In suggesting a straightforward extension of the measures and the mandate of the PoE assisting the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, the UK apparently maintained that a short extension would allow the Council the necessary time to hold detailed and structured discussions on the issue. It seems that the penholder considered this approach appropriate given the pressure on the Council in light of ongoing negotiations on post-ATMIS security arrangements in Somalia and the need to delink both discussions. While Council members broadly agreed with the penholder’s approach regarding a short straightforward extension, some members suggested a few revisions to the text.
It appears that the initial draft circulated by the penholder sought to renew the sanctions regime until 31 January 2025 and the mandate of the PoE and its members until 28 February 2025. China and the US, however, suggested extending the regime and its PoE’s mandate for an additional month, effectively shifting the end dates of the measures and the PoE to February 2025 and March 2025, respectively. The US apparently argued that the additional time would enable the Council to engage in more thorough deliberations, while China stressed the importance of balancing the Council’s workload and preventing an excessive concentration of Council activities in January 2025. This proposal was incorporated in the draft resolution in blue.
The initial draft text also requested the Secretary-General to take the necessary administrative measures as expeditiously as possible to extend the current membership of the PoE until 28 February 2025. Russia, however, apparently expressed reservations about extending the term of the Panel’s current membership. It seems that Russia argued that there is nothing preventing the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee from reflecting on the Panel’s composition by mid-January, when the mandate of the PoE’s current membership is supposed to end pursuant to resolution 2713. Instead, Russia apparently suggested language requesting the Secretary-General to re-establish the PoE in consultation with the Committee, drawing, as appropriate, on the expertise of the members of the Panel. This proposal was apparently supported by China.
In the first revised draft, the penholder retained the extension of the term of the current members of the Panel but removed the language requesting the Secretary-General to take the necessary administrative measures to extend their membership until 28 February 2025. The penholder apparently alluded to administrative challenges in reappointing the PoE members for such a short period and the potential risk of having a mandate for the Panel without the necessary composition. Russia broke silence on this issue, however. The penholder subsequently removed the language extending the mandate of the members of the PoE in the second revised draft, which allowed it to pass the silence procedure.
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**Post-script: On 13 December, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2762 on the 2713 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime, renewing the authorisation for maritime interdiction to enforce the embargo on illicit arms imports, the charcoal exports ban, and the improvised explosive device (IED) components ban until 28 February 2025. The resolution also renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee until 31 March 2025 and expressed the Council’s intention to review the Panel’s mandate and take appropriate actions regarding its further extension by 28 February 2025.
