Ukraine: Briefing under the “Threats to International Peace and Security” Agenda Item
This afternoon (20 December), the Security Council will convene for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item. Russia requested the meeting to discuss the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu is expected to brief.
Today’s briefing will be the twenty-first meeting requested by Russia on the issue of Western arms supplies to Ukraine since the start of the war on 24 February 2022. Russia has initiated these meetings to convey its view that the provision of weapons to Ukraine is contributing to the escalation of hostilities and undermining efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement to the conflict. Ukraine’s allies, on the other hand, have maintained that their provision of military assistance is intended to support Ukraine’s fundamental right to self-defence, in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
The security situation in Ukraine remains challenging as Russian forces continue to advance in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. In the past months, Russian troops have been making the swiftest gains that they have made in the eastern Donetsk region this year, as Ukrainian forces lose ground amid manpower shortages and energy challenges. The current thrust of Russia’s offensive is around the towns of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka and the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. On 16 December, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that Moscow aims to seize the entirety of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions by next year. Russia has had a partial hold on these regions since 2022.
Meanwhile, diplomatic engagements have intensified, with Ukrainian officials meeting representatives of the transition team of US President-elect Donald Trump in Washington on 3 December. This was followed by a trilateral meeting on 7 December in Paris involving French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Trump, during which Zelenskyy emphasised the need for a “just peace” with strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
Trump’s subsequent public statements have raised concerns due to their mixed and at times contradictory nature. On 8 December, he called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations. Trump also suggested a potential reduction in US aid to Ukraine, casting doubt on NATO’s future under his leadership. However, in an interview published on 12 December, Trump acknowledged that “the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon” Ukraine, indicating that he might use US military support as leverage to press Moscow to enter into negotiations. He also criticised the current administration of US President Joe Biden for allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory, while hinting at potential policy reversals. Trump’s appointed Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, is expected to undertake a fact-finding trip in early January and hold meetings in Kyiv and other European capitals. Kellogg is reportedly not scheduled to visit Moscow.
Meanwhile, the current US administration has accelerated military aid to Ukraine, aiming to bolster its defence before the incoming administration potentially revises US support. In December alone, three security assistance packages totalling $2.21 billion were announced on 2, 7, and 12 December. On 10 December, the US announced the disbursement of a $20 billion loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets, part of a $50 billion Group of Seven (G7) support package. Biden urged other G7 leaders to unlock the full value of immobilised Russian sovereign assets, proposing legal mechanisms to seize these funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction and defence. Moscow condemned the move, labelling it “common robbery”.
At a meeting of the European Council on 19 December, Zelenskyy acknowledged that, in January, Trump will intensify efforts to end the war. He stressed in this regard that Ukraine and its European partners need to decide whether Europe should support Trump with a strong, united voice and work closely with countries from the Global South that can influence Russia to respect the principle of territorial integrity. Zelenskyy also emphasised the need for Europe to “make a significant contribution to security guarantees”, adding that he supports France’s initiative for a military contingent in Ukraine as part of these guarantees.
Discussions on deploying a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine have intensified in recent weeks. Macron initially proposed the idea in February, suggesting European troops could train Ukrainian forces. The concept of a European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine to oversee a ceasefire agreement gained traction among European countries this month, amid diplomatic efforts to address Ukraine’s security concerns and the upcoming US presidential transition.
At today’s briefing, Nakamitsu may express concern over the continued and intensified attacks affecting civilians and civilian infrastructure. In this regard, she may call on all parties to uphold their obligations to protect civilians and ensure compliance with international humanitarian law. This includes avoiding the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, which have potentially devastating effects on civilians and civilian objects. Nakamitsu may also emphasise that any transfer of weapons and ammunition must comply with relevant Security Council resolutions.
Council members are expected to reaffirm their established positions on the war in Ukraine, with several emphasising their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Council members are also expected to lament the extensive human suffering and the global consequences of the conflict.
Council members are likely to reiterate their established positions on the issue of weapons supplies to Ukraine. Several members are expected to raise concerns about the alleged weapons supplies to Russia by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran, purportedly for use against Ukraine, in violation of Security Council resolutions. Additionally, several members are expected to express concern about the alleged involvement of troops from the DPRK in the war, highlighting the risks of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and the potentially destabilising effects on the Korean peninsula.
At an 18 December Council briefing under the agenda item “Non-proliferation/ DPRK”, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo said that while the UN is not in a position to verify claims regarding the involvement of DPRK troops in the war, these reports “are a cause for concern” that “adds fuel to the fire, further escalating and internationalizing this explosive conflict”. She reiterated her call on all relevant actors to “refrain from any steps that may lead to spillover and intensification of the war in Ukraine”. (For more information, see our 18 December What’s in Blue story.)
Several members are expected to call for intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a negotiated settlement to the war. Members may present diverging visions of an appropriate framework for achieving a peaceful solution, however. Several Council members are expected to emphasise that no decision about the future of Ukraine should be taken without Kyiv’s consent. (For more information on Council dynamics on this issue, see the brief on Ukraine in our February 2024 Monthly Forecast.)
Russia is likely to reiterate its stance that the provision of weapons to Ukraine is fuelling the escalation of hostilities. In this regard, Moscow is expected to reiterate its criticism of the Biden administration’s approval for Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory. It is also expected to accuse Kyiv of showing a lack of openness to negotiations and may reference the assassination of Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s radiological, chemical, and biological defence programme, who was killed in Moscow on 17 December by a bomb blast. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed responsibility, labelling Kirillov a war criminal. On 18 December, Kellogg criticised the assassination, signalling concerns over the implications of such actions on broader efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
Today’s briefing is the Council’s second meeting on Ukraine this week. On Monday (16 December), the Council held a briefing on humanitarian developments in the country, at the request of Ecuador and France. Briefing the Council, Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Lisa Doughten emphasised the urgent need for unwavering adherence to international humanitarian law, increased and accelerated funding to address a $1.1 billion shortfall in the humanitarian response, and an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine to alleviate civilian suffering.
