Ukraine: High-level Briefing
Tomorrow afternoon (18 November), the Security Council will convene for a high-level briefing on Ukraine. The meeting, which is a signature event of the UK’s November Council presidency, will mark 1,000 days since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Lammy will chair the meeting, at which Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief. Several ministers, including Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha, are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
DiCarlo is expected to highlight the ongoing devastation caused by the war in Ukraine. As at 15 November, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) had documented 39,081 civilian casualties since February 2022, including at least 12,162 deaths, while noting that true figures are likely to be higher as some reports are still pending confirmation. OHCHR has confirmed that over 2,400 children have been killed or injured in the war. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine continues to worsen, exacerbated by a recent surge in hostilities that has sharply increased needs near the front line, according to a 30 October Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) humanitarian situation report. Approximately 14.6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, while almost ten million people have been forcibly displaced by the war. That figure includes 3.7 million internally displaced people and over six million refugees who have fled Ukraine to neighbouring countries.
DiCarlo is likely to reiterate the UN’s call for a renewed commitment by the parties to the UN Charter as the foundation for lasting peace and security. She may warn that, with winter approaching and recent attacks having damaged or destroyed around 65 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the need for assistance is growing as disruptions to electricity, heating, and water supplies worsen. In this regard, DiCarlo may stress the urgency of continued international aid to support humanitarian efforts.
Tomorrow’s briefing will be the Council’s first meeting on Ukraine since the US presidential election earlier this month, which saw the re-election of former President Donald Trump. President-elect Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”, although he has not provided specific details on how to achieve that goal. While Trump has criticised the scale of US military support to Ukraine, he has also suggested using such aid as leverage in peace talks. At an event in Florida on 14 November, Trump said that his administration will focus on the Russia-Ukraine war, emphasising the need for the war to stop. According to media reports, Trump is expected to appoint a peace envoy on Ukraine in the near future.
Russian officials have expressed optimism that Trump’s re-election could provide an opportunity to reset US-Russia relations. During a 7 November meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank and discussion forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness for peace talks with Ukraine, but emphasised that negotiations must be based on “current realities” on the ground. Putin also affirmed Moscow’s willingness to explore the possibility of improving relations with the US.
The prospect of the US reducing or ceasing military support to Ukraine has raised concerns in many European capitals. The US remains the largest military donor to Ukraine, having committed approximately $57 billion in military assistance since February 2022. On 15 November, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin held their first direct phone call since December 2022. Following the call, Berlin issued a statement noting that Scholz stressed “Germany’s unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression for as long as necessary”. In contrast, the Kremlin’s statement noted that “[a]ny possible agreements must address [Russia’s] security concerns, rest on the new territorial realities, and, most importantly, eliminate the original causes of the conflict”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Scholz’s call with Putin risked opening a “Pandora’s box”, potentially encouraging other leaders to engage with Russia, thereby weakening its isolation. He criticised such contacts, arguing that they diminished Moscow’s isolation without offering any concessions in return. In a 16 November interview, Zelenskyy said that he expects the war to “end sooner” because of the “change in the policy of the US”. He stressed that Ukraine’s priority is to “defend a strong position” in preparation for any future negotiations.
Tomorrow, Council members are expected to reaffirm their established positions on the war in Ukraine, with several emphasising their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On 16 November, the Group of Seven (G7)—which includes Council members France, Japan, the UK, and the US—issued a statement pledging unwavering support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”. The statement also underscored the G7’s commitment to “imposing severe costs on Russia through sanctions, export controls and other effective measures”.
Council members are also expected to reflect on the 1,000 days of war in Ukraine, lamenting the extensive human suffering and the global consequences of the conflict. Some members may criticise the Security Council’s response, arguing that the Council has primarily served as a forum for clashing narratives rather than effective action. Since the start of the war, the Council has held 100 formal meetings on Ukraine, 98 percent of which have been open briefings. Some members may call for a more effective use of the Council’s tools to address the crisis more meaningfully.
Several members may express concern over the recent escalation in hostilities. According to media reports, Russia has intensified its long-range drone attacks on Ukrainian cities by approximately 44 percent in the week following Trump’s election victory. Today (17 November), Russia launched 120 missiles and 90 drones, striking energy infrastructure and residential areas across Ukraine in one of the most extensive attacks of the war. The attack killed at least seven people and caused severe damage to the power system, according to Ukrainian officials.
Today, US President Joe Biden’s administration reportedly lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike targets inside Russia. Moscow has previously warned that this authorisation could escalate the conflict further. As the potential for peace talks grows, there is also concern about increasing hostilities as both sides attempt to strengthen their positions ahead of negotiations. In this context, some members may call for restraint and emphasise the need for de-escalation. Additionally, several members are expected to express concern about the alleged involvement of troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in the war, highlighting the risks of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and the potentially destabilising effects on the Korean peninsula.
At tomorrow’s meeting, several members are expected to be forward-looking, emphasising the need for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Some may advocate for greater efforts towards a negotiated settlement, but differing views are expected regarding the appropriate framework for achieving peace in Ukraine. Some members may call for a renewed focus on diplomacy, referencing the 16 June Bürgenstock Communiqué and other communiqués stemming from thematic conferences on Zelenskyy’s ten-point peace plan. Others may underscore the importance of considering all peace initiatives, with China likely highlighting its six-point proposal developed with Brazil. It may also mention the “Group of Friends of Peace”, established at the initiative of Brazil and China in late September to bring together Global South countries to promote peace.
