Briefing on Risk of Famine in Northern Gaza
Tomorrow afternoon (12 November), the Security Council will hold a briefing under the “Protection of civilians in armed conflict” agenda item to discuss the risk of famine in northern Gaza. Guyana and Switzerland, the Council’s co-focal points on conflict and hunger, joined by Algeria and Slovenia, requested the meeting after the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC) issued an alert on 8 November saying that there is “a strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas within the northern Gaza Strip”. The UK’s Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Africa, Lord Collins of Highbury, will chair the meeting. The expected briefers are Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Kehris, and a representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Since 5 October, Israel has been carrying out a military offensive in the north of the Gaza Strip, progressively putting under siege the Jabalia refugee camp and nearby areas, where Israel says that Hamas has attempted to rebuild its capabilities. Senior UN officials and humanitarian organisations have repeatedly warned about the devastating impact of Israel’s offensive on the Palestinian population. In a 25 October statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that, in the north of Gaza, the Israeli military is “subjecting an entire population to bombing, siege and risk of starvation”. On 26 October, Mysua said that “[w]hat Israeli forces are doing in besieged North Gaza cannot be allowed to continue”, adding that hospitals have been hit, health workers have been detained, and first responders have been “prevented from saving people from under the rubble”.
At tomorrow’s meeting, Council members will be interested in an update from Msuya and the FAO representative regarding food insecurity in the Gaza Strip and, specifically, the risk of famine in the north. A 17 October IPC special snapshot classified the whole territory of the Gaza Strip as being in Phase 4 (Emergency) on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) scale in the period between September and October, with nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) and approximately 1.84 million people experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above. The snapshot noted that the whole Gaza Strip faces a risk of famine in the period between November and April 2025 “under a worst-case scenario that has a reasonable chance of occurring”.
The 8 November FRC alert said that the worst-case scenario described in the 17 October snapshot “is now playing out in areas of the northern Gaza Strip”, with the alert being issued in order to “draw immediate attention” to the need for urgent action. The alert stressed that while the situation necessitates a new IPC analysis, it could “be assumed that starvation, malnutrition, and excess mortality due to malnutrition and disease, are rapidly increasing in these areas”, adding that “[f]amine thresholds may have already been crossed or else will be in the near future”.
At a press briefing today (11 November), Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric said that, according to information provided by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), access to the North Gaza governorate remains extremely limited. He said that as the siege in northern Gaza continues, OCHA “urgently calls on Israel to open up the area to humanitarian operations at the scale needed”. Msuya may reiterate this call tomorrow. She might also refer to OCHA’s 11 November humanitarian access snapshot which reports that in October, humanitarian organisations submitted 50 requests to the Israeli authorities to access the North Gaza governorate, 33 of which were “rejected outright”, eight were initially accepted but then faced impediments, and nine were facilitated. The snapshot also stated that, between 6 and 31 October, no humanitarian movements were facilitated by the Israeli authorities to Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya, the main towns in northern Gaza.
Tomorrow, the briefers are likely to call for immediate action by the Security Council to prevent famine in Gaza. The briefers and several Council members may reiterate the FRC alert’s recommendations, which call on all parties who are taking part in the conflict, or have influence on its conduct, to immediately allow the unimpeded entry into Gaza of essential humanitarian supplies and their distribution to all populations in need. Among other things, the recommendations also call for an end to the siege in the northern areas of the Gaza Strip, the cessation of attacks on healthcare facilities and other essential civilian infrastructure, and for permitting the shipment of supplies for winterisation of available accommodation.
Brands Kehris might echo Türk’s 25 October statement, in which he warned that Israel’s “policies and practices in northern Gaza risk emptying the area of all Palestinians” and “could amount to atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity”. She may recall states’ obligations to act to prevent atrocity crimes, while emphasising that access to food is a human right and that the use of starvation of the civilian population as a method of warfare is prohibited under international humanitarian law (IHL).
Brands Kehris might refer to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) 8 November update report on the human rights situation in Gaza, which covers the period from 1 November 2023 to 30 April. Among other findings, it notes that, during the reporting period, “Palestinians in Gaza trying to access food and medical aid were killed by IDF [Israel Defense Forces] fire” and that “Israel appeared to fail to take sufficient steps to avert famine and end starvation”. The report adds that “[s]tatements made by Israeli officials raised concerns that starvation was deliberately inflicted by Israel to punish the civilian population, and to effect the return of hostages”. It also cites accounts from hostages that were held captive in Gaza by Palestinian armed groups, describing “extremely harsh conditions of captivity, including a lack of food, water and poor sanitary conditions”.
Tomorrow, Council members are expected to reiterate their longstanding calls for an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages, as well as their condemnations of the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks. Prospects for a ceasefire appear limited, however, with Qatar, one of the mediators of the indirect talks between Israel and Hamas alongside Egypt and the US, announcing on 9 November that it would suspend its mediation efforts until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness” to end the war.
Council members are expected to demand that safe and unhindered humanitarian access at scale is rapidly guaranteed throughout the Gaza Strip. Several Council members may urge the conflict parties to respect their obligations under IHL—including the principles of humanity, distinction, and proportionality—and may reference resolution 2417 of 24 May 2018, which recalled the prohibition against the use of starvation as a method of warfare. Some members may directly accuse Israel of contravening the prohibition, as Algeria did at a 27 February Council meeting focused on food security risks in Gaza. Some may reference the provisional measures ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the context of South Africa’s proceedings against Israel concerning possible violations in the Gaza Strip of obligations under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, especially as they relate to the unhindered facilitation of humanitarian assistance.
Tomorrow, some members may also reference the two laws recently passed by the Israeli Knesset (parliament) on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which, if implemented, are expected to impair severely UNRWA’s capacity to function in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. These members may stress UNRWA’s essential role in providing assistance to Palestinians and call on Israel not to implement these laws. (For background, see the brief on “The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in our November 2024 Monthly Forecast.)
On 13 October, the US sent a letter to Israeli officials listing measures to improve the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, including enabling a minimum of 350 trucks per day to enter Gaza. The letter said that “Israel must, starting now and within 30 days” act on these measures, adding that failure to demonstrate “a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for US policy under NSM-20 and relevant US law”, a reference to US policy and legislation regulating the provision of military assistance. On 10 November, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that “this week” the US will make its “judgements about what kind of progress” Israel has made in implementing the measures set out in the letter. Tomorrow will mark the last day of the 30-day period.
At the time of writing, Council members were negotiating a draft resolution on the war in Gaza. This initiative is led by the Council’s ten elected members (E10).
