What's In Blue

Posted Sun 20 Oct 2024
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Ukraine: Briefing

Tomorrow afternoon (21 October), the Security Council will convene for a briefing on Ukraine. The meeting was requested by Slovenia and the US—the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča is the anticipated briefer. Ukraine and several countries from the region are expected to participate under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

At tomorrow’s briefing, Jenča is expected to provide an overview of the security and humanitarian situation in Ukraine. He is likely to highlight the increase in civilian casualties reported since July. According to a report on the protection of civilians in armed conflict in Ukraine, released by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on 11 October, there were 208 civilians killed and 1,220 injured in Ukraine in September, making it the month with the highest number of civilian casualties this year. The report further highlights that nine children were killed and 76 injured last month, and that 46 percent of those killed were over the age of 60.

Jenča may also underscore the challenges civilians are likely to encounter during winter. In an 18 October interview, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine Matthias Schmale emphasised that one of the UN’s top priorities is to keep people warm through the winter, noting that 60 percent of Ukraine’s energy production capacity has been partially or completely destroyed.

Additionally, Jenča may discuss the hazards of mining in Ukraine. A 15 October report by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), titled “Enhancing Mine Action Finance in Ukraine”, states that the conflict has generated the largest volume of new contamination since the emergence of the mine action sector in the late 1980s, with an estimated 25 percent of the country now contaminated by mines.

Tomorrow, several Council members are expected to condemn Russia’s continued assaults on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, with some highlighting the recent strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has reported that Russian attacks have caused damage to over 300 port infrastructure facilities and 23 civilian vessels since the start of the war on 24 February 2022. On 16 October, Sybiha announced that Ukraine had formally submitted an appeal to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), requesting the deployment of an international monitoring mission to Ukraine.

These Council members may also express concerns regarding the alleged transfer of weapons and related materials to Russia from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Iran, and China. During the Council’s 24 September briefing on Ukraine, the US accused China of supplying Russia with “machine tools, microelectronics, and other items” allegedly used to support Russia’s military efforts. On 17 October, the US imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies for “directly developing and producing complete weapons systems in partnership with Russian firms”. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning dismissed the accusations, emphasising that China “strictly controls the export of dual-use items including drones and opposes the use of civilian drones for military purposes”.

In an 18 October press release, the National Intelligence Service of the Republic of Korea (ROK) accused the DPRK of sending approximately 1,500 soldiers to Russia for training, with the intent of deploying them to the frontlines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian intelligence suggests the number of DPRK troops preparing to join Russian forces is significantly higher, estimating it to be around 10,000.

Several Council members have criticised Russia for its 28 March veto on a draft resolution (S/2024/255) aimed at extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. (All other members—except China, which abstained—voted in favour of the text.) In this regard, some of these members may welcome the recent establishment of the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), a mechanism composed of several countries—including Council members France, Japan, the ROK, the UK, and the US—tasked with monitoring and reporting violations and evasions of the sanction measures on the DPRK outlined in relevant Security Council resolutions.

Additionally, some members may welcome the latest prisoner exchange between Russian and Ukraine, facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on 18 October. According to Ukrainian authorities, this marked the 58th such exchange since the war began, bringing the total number of prisoners of war (POWs) exchanged to 3,767. A 1 October OHCHR report, titled “Treatment of prisoners of war and update on the human rights situation in Ukraine”, which covers developments from 1 June to 31 August, notes that Ukrainian POWs have been subjected to “widespread and systematic” torture and ill-treatment by Russian authorities. It also found that Russian POWs were subjected to torture or ill-treatment by Ukrainian forces, particularly during the initial stages of their captivity. In this regard, some Council members may urge all parties to ensure the humane treatment of POWs in full compliance with international law.

Council members are also expected to reaffirm their established positions regarding the appropriate framework for achieving peace in Ukraine. Zelenskyy has presented a “victory plan”, which he has described as a bridge to the holding of a second peace summit on Ukraine. The plan comprises five points—as well as three “secret annexes”—including Ukraine’s admission into NATO and authorisation to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike military targets within Russian territory.  These are steps that Kyiv’s allies have been reluctant to support. Additionally, Ukraine has announced its intention to prepare a “joint peace framework” that will incorporate the “constructive positions of the Global South”.

On 27 September, Brazil and China convened a high-level meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly aimed at supporting the efforts of Global South countries in promoting a ceasefire and achieving lasting peace. Following the meeting, thirteen member states, including Council members Algeria and China, signed a joint communiqué expressing their concern over the ongoing conflict and the serious risk of escalation. The communiqué underscored the importance of upholding the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, particularly the respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity. The signatories also announced the formation of the “Group of Friends of Peace” in order to “maintain regular contacts to support global efforts in favor of lasting peace”.

Russia has dismissed Ukraine’s “victory plan”, characterising it as “a set of incoherent slogans”. During an 18 October meeting with media agencies ahead of the BRICS summit, set to take place in Kazan from 22 to 24 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced support for the peace initiatives put forward by Brazil and China. He described these proposals as “balanced and sensible”, suggesting they “could serve as a solid foundation for further attempts to seek peace”. Putin also noted that Moscow is carefully monitoring the activities of the “Group of Friends of Peace”.

Additional meetings on Ukraine are scheduled later this month. Russia is planning to organise an Arria-formula meeting on 25 October, which will focus on alleged crimes by Ukrainian forces against civilians in Russian regions, particularly the Kursk region. Russia has also requested a briefing for 31 October on the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine and its impact on the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

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