Ukraine: High-level Briefing
Tomorrow afternoon (24 September), the Security Council will hold a high-level briefing on the situation in Ukraine. France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the UK, and the US requested the meeting. Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob is expected to chair the meeting, at which Secretary-General António Guterres will brief. Ukraine, represented by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is expected to participate under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
More than two and a half years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ongoing hostilities continue to inflict devastating consequences on civilians. As at 6 September, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) had documented over 36,000 civilian casualties, including at least 11,743 deaths, while noting that the true figures are likely to be considerably higher.
A 19 September HRMMU report notes that, between 22 March and 31 August, Russia launched nine waves of coordinated attacks on Ukraine’s electric power system, severely damaging power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities. The report highlights how the attacks have negatively affected civilians, including by leading to further displacement and disrupting essential services such as electricity, water, heating, sanitation, public health, and education. While previous attacks in 2022 and 2023 focused mainly on transmission facilities, the 2024 strikes have increasingly targeted power generation, with worsening effects expected in the winter. The report concludes that these widespread and systematic attacks likely violate key principles of international humanitarian law.
Against this backdrop of intensified hostilities, the prospects for a peaceful resolution appear bleak as both sides continue to rely on military means to shape the war’s outcome. Ukraine remains determined to reclaim all territory lost to Russia since 2014, including Crimea, while Moscow insists that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the four regions that Russia currently partially occupies: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Despite these entrenched positions, international calls for enhanced diplomatic efforts towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict have increased, including from members of the Security Council. Current efforts are focused on two separate initiatives: one stemming from the “Summit on Peace in Ukraine”, hosted by Switzerland on 15 and 16 June, and another following the six-point proposal put forward by Brazil and China on 23 May, which outlines “common understandings on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis”. (For background, see our 18 June What’s in Blue story.)
The “Summit on Peace in Ukraine” concluded with the adoption of a joint communiqué, which affirmed that the UN Charter, including the principles of respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states, should serve as a basis for achieving a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in Ukraine. In contrast, the six-point proposal issued by Brazil and China does not reference the UN Charter or these principles. Instead, it focuses on key measures for de-escalation, such as refraining from expanding the battlefield, avoiding escalation of hostilities, and preventing provocations by any party. Despite these differences, both initiatives share common ground, such as supporting the exchange of prisoners of war and opposing the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict. As at 10 September, the communiqué had been endorsed by 88 member states, including ten Security Council members (Ecuador, France, Guyana, Japan, Malta, the ROK, Slovenia, Switzerland, the UK, and the US). According to China, as at 11 June, 52 countries and international organisations had either confirmed their endorsement or were actively considering endorsing the “common understandings” (that is, the six-point proposal).
Building on the momentum of the “Summit on Peace in Ukraine”, three thematic conferences have been held: on energy security (22 August), on food security (4 September), and on “restoring justice” (19 September).
It appears that Brazil and China are planning to convene a ministerial-level meeting at the UN on 27 September to discuss the elements of their six-point proposal and issues of concern to members of the Global South related to the war in Ukraine. It seems that this meeting will involve members of the Global South deemed to have played constructive roles in facilitating dialogue or advocating for a political solution to the conflict. The initiative is apparently not intended to compete with other proposals but rather to offer principles and elements that could be integrated into any future negotiation process.
Ukraine and several of its allies have been critical of the six-point proposal. In a 11 September interview, Zelenskyy dismissed the initiative as “destructive”, expressing frustration that Kyiv had not been involved in the process. At a 13 September Council briefing on Ukraine, the US similarly criticised the proposal, arguing that it undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and sets a dangerous precedent by rewarding violations of the UN Charter. The US also called on China to uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, accused it of providing material and political support for Russia, and urged Beijing to stop such support. Meanwhile, at the Eastern Economic Forum, held in Vladivostok in early September, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to Brazil, China, and India as trusted partners capable of acting as intermediaries in potential negotiations with Ukraine. Notably, Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 September.
The following day, on 26 September, Zelenskyy is set to present his “Plan for Victory” to US President Joe Biden, and possibly to the US presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, later in the week. While the plan’s details have not yet been made public, Zelenskyy has described the plan as a set of swift, concrete actions for Kyiv’s strategic partners to implement between now and the end of December. He has also hinted that the plan would involve strikes deep inside Russian territory using Western weapons, an approach not authorised to date by the UK and the US. Zelenskyy further characterised the plan as a “bridge” to a second peace summit, which Kyiv intends to host later this year. Although Ukraine plans to extend an invitation to Russia, Moscow has already said that it will not participate in any follow-up to the “Summit on Peace in Ukraine”.
At tomorrow’s meeting, Guterres is expected to underscore the ongoing devastation caused by the war in Ukraine and to reiterate his call for renewed commitment to the UN Charter as the only path to lasting peace and security in the country. In a 19 September interview, Guterres expressed pessimism about the possibility of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the near future, noting that both sides have shown little interest in mediation efforts by the UN. He emphasised that while the UN’s good offices remain available, any negotiation must align with the principles of the UN Charter, particularly regarding international law and the territorial integrity of nations. Guterres stressed that the UN cannot compromise on these values to facilitate negotiations, as they are fundamental to the organisation’s role.
Council members are expected to reaffirm their established positions on the war in Ukraine, highlighting divisions over the appropriate framework for achieving peace. Several members are likely to advocate for greater efforts towards a negotiated settlement between the parties. Some might highlight the joint communiqué, while others may welcome all initiatives, including the Brazilian-Chinese proposal. Russia, for its part, is expected to reiterate the conditions for peace outlined by Putin during his speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry on 14 June. These include Kyiv’s abandonment of plans to join NATO and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four regions that Russia currently partially occupies. Only after these conditions are met would Russia consider agreeing to a ceasefire and engaging in negotiations with Ukraine, according to Putin.
