Ukraine: Briefing
Tomorrow afternoon (28 August), the Security Council will hold a briefing on the situation in Ukraine. Slovenia and the US, the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine, requested the meeting to discuss the political and security situation in the country. A UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) official is expected to brief. Ukraine and other regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.
The war in Ukraine continues to have devastating consequences for civilians. A protection of civilians update report released on 9 August by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) recorded 35,160 civilian casualties, including 11,520 deaths, since the conflict began on 24 February 2022. The report highlights that in July alone, at least 219 civilians were killed and 1,018 injured in Ukraine, making it the deadliest month for civilians since October 2022. According to the report, the high casualty count in July is a continuation of a trend of increasing civilian casualties since March 2024.
Hostilities have escalated significantly in recent weeks. On 6 August, Ukrainian forces launched an unprecedented cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk region. By 20 August, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian forces had taken control of over 1,200 square kilometres of Russian territory and captured 93 population centres, including the town of Sudzha, a transshipment hub for Russian natural gas flowing through Ukraine to Europe. Moreover, Ukraine has destroyed key military infrastructure, including several bridges over the Seym River.
Ukrainian officials have characterised the operation as a strategic effort to create a buffer zone to protect its border regions from ongoing Russian attacks, particularly in the north-eastern Sumy region, and to pressure Moscow into entering “a fair negotiation process”. Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that the offensive was intended to improve Kyiv’s negotiations position in possible future peace talks and to disrupt the progress of Russian forces in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which remains the focal point of the most intense fighting. In recent days, Russian troops have made significant advances northwest of the Donetsk region, claiming to have captured the town of Niu-York. According to media reports, Russian forces also appear to be closing in on the strategic city of Pokrovsk, prompting local authorities to order civilians to evacuate.
According to several humanitarian impact flash updates recently published by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the number of residents fleeing frontline communities in the Donetsk region has risen significantly as the security situation continues to worsen. The updates emphasise that those who choose to stay behind are facing increasing humanitarian needs, while access to the most affected communities is shrinking due to the deteriorating security conditions.
The Kursk offensive has heightened concerns about the potential for further escalation. On 10 August, Belarus deployed additional troops to reinforce its border with Ukraine, citing Ukrainian drone incursions into its airspace during Ukraine’s operation in Kursk. In a 25 August statement, the Ukrainian foreign ministry urged Belarus to withdraw what it described as a “significant number of personnel…weapons, and military equipment”, including “mercenaries of the former Wagner [paramilitary company]” stationed along their shared border. It further cautioned Belarus against making “tragic mistakes” under pressure from Moscow.
With fighting occurring near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a statement on 9 August, urging all parties to exercise “maximum restraint” to prevent a nuclear accident that could have severe radiological consequences. On 17 August, Russia accused Ukraine of planning an attack on the KNPP, allegations that Kyiv has denied. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the KNPP today (27 August), where he aimed to “see first-hand the situation and discuss modalities for further activities as may be needed to evaluate the nuclear safety and security conditions” of the plant, according to a 26 August statement. In a press conference after the visit, Grossi reportedly said that “the danger or possibility of a nuclear accident has emerged near here” and warned that the plant was very fragile since it had no protective dome.
Meanwhile, the nuclear safety situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has also continued to deteriorate. According to the IAEA, on 17 August, a drone exploded just outside the plant’s protected area, near the essential cooling water sprinkler ponds and approximately 100 metres from the ZNPP’s only remaining power line. In a statement issued on the same day, Grossi said that he was “extremely concerned” about the situation at the ZNPP.
At tomorrow’s meeting, several Council members are expected to condemn Russia for its continued air assaults on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, which have caused extensive damage to energy facilities, disrupted electricity access for millions of Ukrainians, and compromised water supply in certain areas. Yesterday, Russia launched an air assault that Ukrainian officials said involved more than 100 missiles and 100 drones, describing it as the largest airborne attack against their country since the war began. OCHA reported that the wave of attacks on 26 August damaged key energy infrastructure and resulted in civilian casualties. UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Matthias Schmale condemned the assault, while calling for the protection of civilians and respect for international humanitarian law.
Tomorrow, several Council members are expected to call for restraint, particularly regarding military activities around the KNPP and the ZNPP. These members are likely to urge both sides to adhere to the seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security during armed conflict, as described by Grossi at a special meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Governors on 2 March 2022. They may also argue that the five concrete principles to prevent a nuclear accident in Ukraine, which Grossi outlined at a 30 May 2023 Security Council briefing, are equally applicable in Russia and must be respected by all parties involved.
Russia is likely to reiterate its stance that the provision of weapons to Ukraine is fuelling the escalation of hostilities. On 22 August, Ukraine’s air force reportedly said that it had used a US-made bomb to strike a Russian platoon command post in Kursk. Western governments have been cautious about openly permitting the use of their weapons against targets within Russia due to concerns about the risk of further escalation. However, in a 21 August post on X (formerly Twitter), EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell Fontelles expressed support for “lifting restrictions on the use of capabilities vs the Russian military involved in aggression against Ukraine”, arguing that this would “strengthen Ukrainian self-defense by ending Russia’s sanctuary for its attacks”, save lives, and help advance peace efforts. Borrell indicated that this issue would be discussed during meetings of EU foreign and defense ministers scheduled for 29 and 30 August in Brussels.
Russia has requested a Security Council briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item for 30 August to discuss “the risks of spiralling escalation resulting from the increasing weapons transfers by the Western countries to the Kyiv regime”.
Tomorrow, Russia might also condemn Ukrainian authorities for passing a bill on 20 August that prohibits religious organisations with ties to Moscow from operating on Ukrainian territory, paving the way for banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC). (For background, see our 16 November 2023 What’s in Blue story.)
