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October 2006
Central African Republic
Monthly Forecast
No formal Council action on the Central African Republic (CAR) in October is expected at press time. Given the potential for further regional instability, however, Council members may see a need for a statement. The Secretary-General's report is expected in October, but discussions may carry on into November depending on when it is issued. Read more
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October 2006
Overview
Monthly Forecast
After an exceptionally busy summer and a September filled with the usual annual flurry of high level activities related to the opening debate of the General Assembly, October is likely to see Council members turning more sustained attention to several... Read more
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27 September 2006
Update Report No. 4: Myanmar
Update Report
On Friday 29 September the Council will be briefed on Myanmar by Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari. Even though the Council has received briefings on Myanmar last year and earlier this year, this will be the first briefing with the situation in Myanmar being officially on the Council agenda. The Council took a rare procedural vote to add this item. Read more
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21 September 2006
S/2006/759
UN Documents
This was the twenty-second report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Organization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Read more
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13 September 2006
Update Report No. 2: Children and Armed Conflict
Update Report
The Council will consider this month the recommendations of its Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict regarding children affected by armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is expected to refer specific cases to the Sanctions Committee on the DRC for consideration of targeted sanctions. Read more
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8 September 2006
S/2006/724
UN Documents
This was the letter from the chair of the Working Group transmitting its recommendations on the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Read more
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8 September 2006
Special Research Report No. 5: Twenty Days in August: The Security Council Sets Massive New Challenges for UN Peacekeeping
Research Report
In only twenty days, from 11 to 31 August 2006, the Security Council adopted three resolutions which seem likely to increase UN peacekeeping levels around the world by approximately 50 percent and perhaps increase the overall cost of peacekeeping from the expected 2006-07 level of US$4.7 billion to possibly US$8 billion per year. This new Council activity represents the fourth major surge in UN peacekeeping since the end of the Cold War, each bringing new complex challenges. The first was in the early 1990s, followed by a period of retrenchment until the second surge in 1999-2000 with the establishment of UNMEE (Ethiopia/Eritrea) and MONUC (Democratic Republic of Congo) and the two transitional administrations, UNMIK (Kosovo) and UNTAET (Timor-Leste). The third was in 2003-04 when five new large multidimensional operations commenced: UNMIL (Liberia), ONUB (Burundi), UNOCI (Côte d'Ivoire), MINUSTAH (Haiti) and UNMIS (southern Sudan). Read more
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September 2006
Review of Security Council Mandates
Monthly Forecast
In the July 2006 Forecast we outlined the criteria established by the Security Council's Ad Hoc Committee in its review of Security Council mandates. At the end of June, consensus had been reached to recommend that the Secretary-General phase out the vacant position of Special Envoy for Ethiopia and Eritrea. Read more
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September 2006
Somalia
Monthly Forecast
The Council may moderate the tilt which it made in early August in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the absence of an established peace process involving consent from all parties, it seems unlikely at this stage that the Council will support the proposed African Union/Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission. Read more
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September 2006
Notable Dates
Monthly Forecast
Notable dates for September 2006. Read more
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14 August 2006
Special Research Report No. 4: Security Council Elections 2006
Research Report
In mid October the General Assembly will hold elections for five seats on the Security Council. The 2006 election has an unusual level of interest because of high profile contested campaigns within two regional groups. In the Asian Group, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Nepal are vying for one seat. In the Group of Latin American and Caribbean States, Guatemala and Venezuela are in a very hot contest, also for one seat. The elections in the African Group and the Western European and Others Group are uncontested. As a result, South Africa, Belgium and Italy are assured of election. However, because these are elections to a "Principal Organ" of the United Nations, formal balloting is still required. (General Assembly Decision 34/401, paragraph 16, which allowed the Assembly to dispense with elections where there was a "clean slate" from a regional group only applies to subsidiary organs and therefore does not apply.) Read more
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8 August 2006
Update Report No. 1: Peace Consolidation in West Africa
Update Report
The Council is expected to adopt a presidential statement on peace consolidation in West Africa, following the open debate scheduled for 9 August. Read more
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August 2006
Status Update
Monthly Forecast
Status Update of Security Council Activity in July 2006. Read more
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August 2006
Somalia
Monthly Forecast
No Council decisions on Somalia are scheduled this month. However, given the very unstable situation on the ground, Somalia is likely to feature in some way on the Council programme of work. Read more
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August 2006
Côte d’Ivoire
Monthly Forecast
The Council will keep under review prospects for holding the elections as scheduled on 31 October but final conclusions will probably not be drawn until September. Formal action in the form of further targeted sanctions is likely if the obstruction of the voter-identification process by supporters of President Laurent Gbagbo continues. Read more
