February 2026 Monthly Forecast

• Overview   

  In February, the UK will hold the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Muted Response to the Venezuela Crisis

  On 3 January, the US conducted a military operation in Venezuela that removed President Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife, Cilia Flores, from the country. These actions are widely regarded by analysts as a violation of international law, including the UN... Read more

• Status Update since our January Forecast 

  This is the Status Update since our January Forecast. Read more

• Sudan

  In February, the Security Council is expected to receive the regular 120-day briefing on the situation in Sudan. The UK, which holds the Council's rotating presidency for the month of February, intends to elevate the briefing to ministerial level. The Council was also scheduled to be briefed this month on the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee. At the time of writing, however, the Committee’s Chair had not yet been appointed, as Council members continued negotiations over the allocation of subsidiary bodies for the year. In this context, the UK proposed that the 1591 Committee meet its reporting requirements through a written statement. Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In February, the Security Council will receive its annual briefing from the heads of police components of UN peace operations. The anticipated briefers are Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; UN Police Adviser Faisal Shahkar; Police Commissioner of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) Mamouna Ouedraogo; and Police Commissioner of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Meinolf Schlotmann. Read more

• South Sudan

  In February, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in South Sudan. Council members are expected to receive the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan and developments in the country by 2 February. The mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) expires on 30 April 2026. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In February, the Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution extending the mandate of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee. The Monitoring Team’s mandate expires on 17 February. Read more

• Yemen

  In February, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief on political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.  Read more

• Syria

  In February, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly meeting on political and humanitarian developments in Syria. Deputy Special Envoy for Syria Claudio Cordone, a representative from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and a civil society representative are expected to brief. Read more

• Libya

  In February, the Security Council will hold its 60-day briefing on the situation in Libya. Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Serwaa Tetteh will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.  Read more

• Central African Republic

  In February, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA, Valentine Rugwabiza, is expected to brief. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, Council members are scheduled to discuss the 90-day report on the work of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee in closed consultations. Ordinarily, the Chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee briefs Council members on the report. At the time of writing, the Chair had not been appointed as Council members continue to negotiate this year’s allocation of subsidiary bodies. If the Chair is not appointed by the time the meeting is scheduled to take place, the UK, the president of the Council during February, is likely to brief members on the report in its capacity as president. Greece served as Chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee last year after the appointments were finalised in May 2025. Read more