October 2025 Monthly Forecast

• Overview 

  In October, Russia will hold the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

• In Hindsight: The Increasing Use of Article 51 of the UN Charter and the Security Council

  In recent years, the use of force in self-defence has become increasingly contentious. Article 51 of the UN Charter, which recognises member states’ right of self-defence against an armed attack, sits at the heart of these debates. This In Hindsight examines some of the differing positions of member states in relation to the scope of the right of self-defence, analyses relevant practice regarding the reporting requirement set out in Article 51 and the implications of that practice, and offers suggestions for improvements in this area. Read more

• Status Update since our September Forecast

  This is the Status Update since our September Forecast. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question 

  In October, the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). The expected briefer is Ramiz Alakbarov, Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident Coordinator at the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO).  Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In October, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security (WPS). UN Secretary-General António Guterres and one or more civil society representatives are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• Colombia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its quarterly meeting on Colombia. Miroslav Jenča—who was appointed Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia on 8 September and is expected to arrive in the country in mid-October—will provide his first briefing in this role. He will brief on recent developments in Colombia and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2025/595), which was circulated to Council members on 24 September and covers the period from 27 June. The Council is also expected to discuss the renewal of the verification mission’s mandate ahead of its 31 October expiry. Read more

• UN-AU Cooperation

  In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the African Union (AU). Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the AU and Head of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU) Parfait Onanga-Anyanga is the anticipated briefer. Onanga-Anyanga is expected to present the Secretary-General’s annual report on strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including the work of the UNOAU, during the meeting. Read more

• Somalia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting to discuss the situation in Somalia.  Special Representative for Somalia and Head of the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) James Swan is expected to brief. The African Union (AU) is expected to update the Council on the implementation of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) mandate in accordance with resolution 2767 of 27 December 2024. In addition, the Chair of the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Eloy Alfaro de Alba (Panama), is expected to brief on the work of the committee. In resolution 2753 of 30 October 2024, the Council expressed its intention to review the progress of UNTMIS’s transition by 31 October. Read more

• Yemen

  In October, Security Council members will hold their monthly closed consultations on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief on political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.  Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In October, Council members will hold the quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan. An official from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF and the most recent developments. UNDOF’s mandate, which is typically renewed every six months, expires on 31 December 2025. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, Security Council members will receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s annual report on the situation in Western Sahara. The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October. Read more

• Great Lakes Region (DRC)

  In October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide the biannual briefing to the Council on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region. Read more

• Libya

  In October, the Council will hold its 60-day briefing on the situation in Libya. Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Serwaa Tetteh will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer. Read more

• Kosovo

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its second briefing of the year on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the situation in Kosovo. Deputy Special Representative of UNMIK Milbert Dongjoon Shin is the anticipated briefer. Read more

• Syria

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly meeting on political and humanitarian developments in Syria. An official from the Office of the Special Envoy for Syria and a representative from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief. Read more

• The United Nations: Looking into the Future

  On 24 October, the day the UN Charter entered into force eighty years ago, the Security Council is expected to hold an open debate on “The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future”. Secretary General António Guterres is expected to brief via videoconference. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza is expected to brief. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In October, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The Council is also expected to vote at the end of the month on the reauthorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) prior to its 1 November expiration. Read more