January 2024 Monthly Forecast

• Overview 

  In January 2024, France will hold the presidency of the Security Council.      Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council in 2023

  The Security Council has been severely tested by a multilateral environment in turmoil. In 2023, it faced the continuing effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the precipitous escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and pushback against UN peacekeeping in Africa as well as UN sanctions. The shifting global balance of power, the contrasting narratives about global priorities that emerged after the invasion of Ukraine, and the allegations of Western double standards over Israel’s actions in Gaza, have severely strained relations and deepened the atmosphere of distrust. The Council continued to come under public attack for its inability to address violations of the UN Charter. Read more

• Status Update since our December Forecast  

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  In January 2024, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. It appears that France, January’s Council President, intends to convene the open debate at ministerial level. Secretary-General António Guterres is the anticipated briefer. Council members may convene additional meetings during the month depending on developments. Read more

• Ukraine

  In January 2024, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In January 2024, the Security Council will hold its biannual briefing on West Africa and the Sahel. The Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Leonardo Santos Simão, is expected to brief. Read more

• Colombia

  In January 2024, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, which was circulated to Council members on 26 December 2023 and covers the period from 27 September to 26 December 2023. A civil society representative may also brief. Read more

• Yemen

  In January 2024, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen in closed consultations. UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg; the head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary; and a representative of OCHA are expected to brief. Read more

• Cyprus

  In January 2024, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart is expected to brief. The Council is expected to renew UNFICYP’s mandate ahead of its 31 January 2024 expiry. Read more

• Haiti

  In January 2024, the Council will hold its 90-day briefing on the situation in Haiti. Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH.  Read more

• Syria

  In January 2024, the Security Council is expected to hold a meeting on the political process and the humanitarian situation in Syria.   Read more

• Sudan

  In January 2024, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of ICC Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan on the ICC’s Darfur-related activities.  Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In January, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Kaha Imnadze, is expected to brief Security Council members on UNRCCA’s work in closed consultations. Read more