December 2021 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2021
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  • Overview

    In December, Niger will hold the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Women, Peace and Security—Golden Threads and Persisting Challenges

    The women, peace and security (WPS) agenda was inaugurated in 2000 with the adoption of Security Council resolution 1325. Trepidation marked the agenda’s 20th anniversary last year, with difficult Council dynamics characterising engagement on this issue in 2019-2020. Against this backdrop, the “presidency trio” initiative on WPS led by Ireland, Kenya and Mexico during their consecutive presidencies (September, October and November) may be understood as an initial attempt to find a way forward for the agenda at the Council. Read more

  • Status Update since our November Forecast

    Bosnia and Herzegovina On 3 November, the Security Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and unanimously adopted resolution 2604, renewing the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) until 3 November 2022. The debate... Read more

  • COVID-19 Pandemic

    In December, Security Council members will hold consultations on the implementation of resolutions 2532 and 2565, which demanded, respectively, a cessation of hostilities in all situations on the Council’s agenda to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and a humanitarian pause to facilitate the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines in areas of armed conflict. Read more

  • Yemen

    In December, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen with UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of OCHA. Read more

  • Somalia

    In December, the Council is scheduled to vote on two resolutions on Somalia: one to reauthorise the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), the other to renew counter-piracy measures off the coast of Somalia. The AMISOM authorisation expires on 31 December and the counter-piracy measures on 4 December. The Council received the annual report on piracy and armed robbery at sea off the coast of Somalia on 4 November. Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    In December, the Council is scheduled to receive its annual briefing from the chairs of its counter-terrorism committees: Ambassador Trine Heimerback (Norway), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee; Ambassador Tarek Ladeb (Tunisia), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC); and Ambassador Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico), chair of the 1540 Committee. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In December, the Security Council will convene to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Bintou Keita, the Special Representative and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), is the anticipated briefer. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of MONUSCO, which expires on 20 December. Read more

  • Briefing by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees

    In December, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi will brief the Council. The briefing will focus on the situation of refugees in several country-specific situations on the Council’s agenda. No outcome is expected. Read more

  • Syria

    In December, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights) 

    In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Ahead of the mandate renewal, the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due on 1 December, and the most recent developments. Read more

  • Climate Change and Security

    In December, Niger is planning to convene an open debate on “Security in the context of climate change”. Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum is expected to chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres and Chairperson of the AU Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat are the anticipated briefers. Ambassador Mamman Nuhu, the Executive Director of the Lake Chad Basin Authority and Head of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), might brief as well. Read more

  • Sudan

    In December, the Security Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General's 90-day report on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), due by 3 December. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. The mandate of UNITAMS expires on 3 June 2022. Read more

  • International Criminal Tribunals

    In December, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures. The IRMCT’s president, Judge Carmel Agius, and its prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, are expected to brief during the debate and to meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to that. Read more

  • Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies: Briefings by the Outgoing Chairs

    As is customary in December, the outgoing chairs of subsidiary bodies are expected to provide a briefing on their experiences. Read more

  • Iran

    In December, the Council is due to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Council also expects reports from the Joint Commission and the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason (Ireland). The Joint Commission was established to oversee the implementation of the JCPOA and comprises the current parties to the agreement: China, France, Germany, the UK, Russia, and Iran. Byrne Nason, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission are expected to brief the Council. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In December, Special Representative and head of UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Nicolas Haysom is scheduled to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, which members expect to receive by 7 December. Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy (Viet Nam), chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to brief on the work of the Committee. Consultations will follow the briefing. Read more

  • UNOCA (Central Africa) 

    In December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), is expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA. Consultations are expected to follow. Read more

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