January 2021 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Tunisia has the presidency in January. Read more

• In Hindsight: Looking Back to Look Ahead

  Every January, five new members take their seats for a two-year term on the Security Council. In 2021, India, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico and Norway are the incoming five (I-5) replacing departing members Belgium, Dominican Republic, Germany, Indonesia and South Africa. While we don’t have a crystal ball, the events of 2020 may provide an indication of what these members can expect in 2021. Read more

• Status Update since our December Forecast 

  Ukraine   On 2 December, Russia organised an Arria-formula meeting on implementation of the 2015 Minsk Package of Measures, an agreement on the settlement of conflict in Ukraine. According to the concept note circulated ahead of the meeting, the aim was... Read more

• Mali

  In January, the Council is expected to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the Secretary-General’s bi-annual letter on the security situation, MINUSMA’s performance, and transition planning. The report and the letter are due in late December 2020. The mandate of MINUSMA expires on 30 June 2021. Read more

• Colombia

  In January, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments in Colombia and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission. Read more

• Syria

  In January, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and on the use of chemical weapons in Syria.   Read more

• Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Challenges of Maintaining Peace and Security in Fragile Contexts

  As president of the Security Council in January, Tunisia is organising an open debate on the challenges of maintaining international peace and security in fragile contexts. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In January, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief the Council to present the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on West Africa and the Sahel. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  As president of the Security Council in January 2021, Tunisia is organising a debate on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts, focusing on international cooperation in combating terrorism. The debate is intended to commemorate 20 years since the adoption of resolution 1373 in 2001, that among other things, placed barriers on the movement, organisation and fund-raising activities of terrorist groups and their supporters and established the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Yemen

  In January, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement. In addition, the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts is expected to submit its final report to the committee. Read more

• Cyprus

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 January expiry. Special Representative and head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is likely to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and recent developments in a closed videoconference. A representative from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs may also brief.  Read more

• Cooperation between the UN and the League of Arab States

  In January, the Security Council will hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) as an initiative of Tunisia, which serves as president of the Council for the month. Secretary-General António Guterres and LAS Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit may brief.  Read more

• COVID-19

  In January, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the implementation of resolution 2532, which demanded a cessation of hostilities in all situations on the Council’s agenda to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question 

  The Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in January. A high-level UN official will brief.   Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In January, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the Security Council in closed consultations on UNRCCA’s activities. Read more

• Libya

  In January, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Support Mission for Libya (UNSMIL). A high-level Secretariat official is likely to brief, as is the incoming chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. The Council may adopt a resolution supporting the compliance of all national and international stakeholders with the 23 October 2020 ceasefire agreement between the parties to the Libyan conflict. Read more