November 2020 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has the presidency of the Security Council in November. Read more

• In Hindsight: Formulating the Motion to be Put to a Procedural Vote 

  Security Council procedural votes—which require nine votes in favour to be adopted and cannot be vetoed by a permanent member—remain rare, with a recent high of four such votes in 2018. From 1946 through 1989, there were 153 procedural votes, and since 1990 there have been only 28. Since the end of the Cold War, most procedural decisions—adopting the agenda for a particular meeting; adding a new item to the “seizure list”, as the list of all formal agenda items is known; or inviting an individual to participate in a Council meeting—have been arrived at by consensus during consultations.   Read more

• Status Update since our October Forecast 

  Status Update since our October Forecast Read more

• Lebanon (1701)

  In November, the Council expects to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, due on 11 November. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel. Briefings are expected from the Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Ján Kubiš, and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Read more

• Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

  In November, the Council will hold a high-level open debate on “contemporary drivers of conflict and insecurity”, under the Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace agenda. The Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Ralph Gonsalves, will chair the meeting, which will be held by videoconference. The expected briefers are Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed; Chief Executive Officer of the New Partnership for Africa's Development Ibrahim Mayaki; Vice-Chancellor of the University of the West Indies Sir Hilary Beckles; and possibly the President of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), Ambassador Munir Akram (Pakistan).  Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In November, the Council will hold its annual briefing with the heads of UN police components in UN peace operations. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is expected to brief. The briefing will be held via videoconference (VTC). The heads of police components of three UN peacekeeping operations and one special political mission will also brief: Pascal Champion, the police commissioner of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA); Unaisi Lutu Vuniwaqa, the police commissioner of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS); Issoufou Yacouba, the police commissioner of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA); and Serge Therriault, the police commissioner of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). Champion is expected to brief on increasing UN police performance and accountability while Vuniwaqa is likely to brief on the contribution of UN police to the protection of civilians. Yacouba is likely to address the issue of advancing political solutions through UN policing, and Therriault to discuss capacity-building and development efforts, focusing on the Haitian National Police.  Read more

• Central African Republic

  In November, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which expires on 15 November. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In November, the Security Council is expected to hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and to renew the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA). High Representative Valentin Inzko is expected to brief on the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Read more

• Syria

  In November, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and on the use of chemical weapons in Syria.   Read more

• Libya

  In November, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Acting Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission for Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Williams, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Günter Sautter, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany. Additionally, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. The Council may also adopt a resolution supporting compliance of all national and international stakeholders with the 23 October ceasefire agreement between the Libyan conflict parties. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the meetings are likely to be held as videoconferences.   Measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May 2021. The authorisation given through resolution 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be in violation of the arms embargo) expires on 5 June 2021. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September 2021. The authorisation given through resolution 2491 (to inspect vessels suspected of being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking) expires on 3 October 2021. Read more

• Yemen

  In November, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. Read more

• International Court of Justice

  In November, the Security Council and the General Assembly will elect five judges to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to commence their term on 6 February 2021. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In November, the Council expects to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Council is also expected to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border.  Read more

• Somalia

  In November, the Security Council is likely to renew certain elements of the Somalia sanctions regime that will expire on 15 November. Additionally, the Council is expected to hold a meeting on the implementation of the mandates of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) with briefings likely from the heads of the two missions, James Swan and Francisco Madeira, respectively. The Council is also due to receive a report from the Secretary-General on the situation regarding piracy and armed robbery at sea. Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  In November, the Council is expected to hold its biannual briefing, followed by consultations, on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S), which Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (G5 Sahel) established in 2017 to combat terrorist and criminal groups in the region. Read more

• Iraq

  In November, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports, on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in November.  The fifth report of the Special Adviser and head of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) is also due in November. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the meetings are likely to be held as videoconferences.    UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2021 and the mandate of UNITAD expires on 18 September 2021.  Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In November, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members on the 90-day report about the committee’s work. Because of the temporary measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the briefing is expected to be held as a closed videoconference (VTC). Read more