October 2020 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2020
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  • Overview

    Russia holds the presidency in October. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly—Can It Be Improved? 

    The Security Council’s annual report to the General Assembly has been one of the most belaboured aspects of the Council’s working methods. Numerous initiatives undertaken by member states since 1993 have aimed at making the report more useful to its principal addressee, the General Assembly, and to the general public. The most recent of these initiatives culminated in the adoption on 27 December 2019 of a note by the president of the Security Council, tightening the report’s preparation timeline with the aim of presenting it to the General Assembly before the beginning of summer, starting with the report for 2020.  Read more

  • Status Update since our September Forecast 

    Status Update since our September Forecast Read more

  • Libya

    In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking, which is set to expire on 3 October. The authorisation given by resolution 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be in violation of the arms embargo) expires on 5 June 2021, measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May 2021. The mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) expires on 15 September 2021. Read more

  • Comprehensive Review of the Situation in the Gulf Region

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a debate focusing on a comprehensive review of the situation in the Persian Gulf region under the agenda item “maintenance of international peace and security”. This is a signature event of the Russian presidency, building on a concept for the region that Russia proposed in 2019.  Read more

  • Colombia

    In October, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments in Colombia and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the mission, published on 25 September. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) by the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due out in October, and on the most recent developments. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the meeting is likely to be held as a videoconference (VTC). UNDOF’s mandate expires on 31 December. Read more

  • Haiti

    In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) which expires on 16 October. Prior to the adoption, the Council expects to meet to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of BINUH, Helen La Lime. Read more

  • Syria

    In October, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). At the same meeting, the Chair of the 1533 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Abdou Abarry (Niger), will deliver his annual briefing to the Council. Also, Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia is expected to provide his bi-annual briefing to the Council in October on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSC Framework) for the DRC and the region and other recent developments in the region. Read more

  • Mali

    In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on Mali, followed by consultations, with the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Mahamat Saleh Annadif. The mandate of MINUSMA ends on 30 June 2021. The Mali sanctions measures—a travel ban and an assets freeze—expire on 31 August 2021, and the mandate of the Mali Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts expires on 30 September 2021. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) which expires on 31 October. Prior to that, it expects to receive a briefing on MINURSO, as mandated in resolution 2494. Colin Stewart, the Special Representative for Western Sahara and head of MINURSO, is likely to brief. Western Sahara briefings have usually been held in consultations Read more

  • Yemen

    In October, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In October, the Council will discuss the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which is due by 9 October.  Read more

  • Kosovo

    In October, the Council is expected to hold its second regular briefing this year on the situation in Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), as requested in resolution 2519. Read more

  • The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question  

    In October, the Security Council will hold the quarterly debate on “The Situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is expected to brief.  Read more

  • Somalia

    In October, the Chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Philippe Kridelka (Belgium), will deliver his 120-day briefing to the Council, most likely in an open videoconference (VTC). Elements of the sanctions regime will expire on 15 November, including the partial lifting of some sanctions, and the mandate of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts expires on 15 December. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In October, the Council is expected to receive the semi-annual briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559, due on 21 October. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Under‑Secretary‑General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief the Council. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security. The Secretary-General’s annual report will be released ahead of the meeting. Russia, as president of the Council in October, is expected to circulate a concept note ahead of the debate. The debate may also be held at a high level. Secretary-General António Guterres, Executive Director of UN Women Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, a female peacekeeper, and a civil society representative may brief. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place late in the month, the meeting is likely to be held as an open videoconference (VTC). A resolution is a possible outcome. Read more

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