August 2020 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Indonesia has the presidency of the Security Council in August. Read more

• In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing

  During the second week of July, the Security Council struggled to re-authorise the Syria cross-border humanitarian aid delivery mechanism, which was set to expire at midnight on Friday, 10 July. Only after four draft resolutions failed to be adopted did the Council finally reach agreement. The process that eventually led to the adoption of resolution 2533 was acrimonious and not only resulted in the Council’s re-authorising just a single border crossing—thus reducing the UN’s capacity to deliver humanitarian assistance to Syria’s north-west—but also laid bare the Council’s deep divisions over Syria. Russia and China vetoed two resolutions in the course of the week, and two Russian-sponsored texts failed to reach enough votes to pass. The challenge of the week’s negotiations and multiple failed votes was exacerbated by the way the Council has had to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a written voting procedure and lack of in-person meetings.  Read more

• Status Update since our July Forecast 

  Status Update since our July Forecast Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In August, the Security Council is expected to hold two meetings on counter-terrorism issues. Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), and Assistant Secretary-General Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), are expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s 11th strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). Then, during a high-level open debate, Voronkov and the Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Under-Secretary-General Ghada Waly, are expected to brief the Council on a joint report by the UNOCT and UNODC on the linkages between terrorism and organised crime. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the meetings are likely to be held as open videoconferences. Read more

• Iraq

  In August, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports, on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in August. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the briefing and the subsequent consultations are likely to be held as open and closed videoconferences, respectively.    The mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) expires on 21 September, and UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2021. Read more

• Syria

  Expected Council Action In August, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Key Recent Developments On 30 June, the EU organised a donor meeting—the... Read more

• Guinea-Bissau 

  In August, the Council will hold a briefing followed by consultations on the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS). Special Representative and head of UNIOGBIS Rosine Sori-Coulibaly is expected to brief. A representative from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) may also brief.  Read more

• Lebanon

  In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) before its 31 August expiry. Prior to this, Council members will convene for a closed videoconference (VTC) meeting to hear a briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, issued on 14 July. The expected briefers are Ján Kubiš, Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Read more

• Pandemics and Peacebuilding

  In August, the Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate on “Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: challenges caused by pandemics”. Possible briefers are Secretary-General António Guterres, former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, representing The Elders, the NGO of public figures founded by Nelson Mandela, and Sarah Cliffe, Director of New York University's Center on International Cooperation. Read more

• Yemen

  In August, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing, via videoconference (VTC), with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, a representative from OCHA, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA, renewed on 14 July, expires on 15 July 2021. The 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee is expected to consider the mid-term update of its Panel of Experts in August. The mandate of the Panel of Experts expires on 28 March 2021. Read more

• Somalia

  In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which expires on 31 August. Earlier in the month, the Council is due to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of UNSOM James Swan and hold consultations on Somalia. The authorisation for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 28 February 2021. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members on the 90-day report of the committee’s work. Because of the temporary measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the briefing is expected to be held as a closed videoconference (VTC).   Read more

• Mali

  In August, the Council is due to renew the Mali sanctions regime, which expires on 31 August, as well as the mandate of the Panel of Experts, which expires on 30 September. Ahead of the sanctions renewal, the Council is expected to receive the Mali Panel of Experts’ final report. The mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June 2021. Read more