February 2019 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Equatorial Guinea will have the presidency in February. Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council in 2018

  The fractured state of Council relations, particularly among the permanent members, was reflected in the difficulty of obtaining consensus on Council resolutions. This is not entirely new: the number of vetoed and non-consensus resolutions has been rising for eight years. In 2018, three resolutions were vetoed, while four tabled drafts failed due to insufficient votes. A lower number of resolutions was adopted—54, against 61 in 2017—of which nine had fewer than 15 votes in favour. Read more

• Status Update since our January Forecast

  Status update since our January Forecast Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In February, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), which expires on 28 February. Prior to this, the Council will undertake a visiting mission to Guinea-Bissau, followed by a briefing on the mission. (For more information, see our brief on the Security Council’s visiting mission.) Read more

• Yemen

  In February, the Council is likely to be briefed on the implementation of resolutions 2451 and 2452 by Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. It is also expected to renew the Yemen sanctions regime which expires on 28 February 2019. The mandate of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) expires on 16 June. Read more

• Impact of Mercenary Groups on Regional Peace and Stability

  In early February, there will be a high-level debate on “Mercenary activities as a source of insecurity and destabilization in Africa”. It is anticipated that the Central African sub-region will be a focus of the discussion. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea is expected to preside. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the AU Commission, are expected to brief. No formal outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Maritime Crime

  On 5 February, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on transnational organised crime at sea. Equatorial Guinea’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Simeón Oyono Esono Angue, is expected to chair. The Executive Secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Commission, Florentina Adenike Ukonga, and the Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Yury Fedotov, are expected to brief. No outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Syria

  In February, the Council will receive the monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation, the political process and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In February, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee by 12 February, in advance of its expiration on 12 March, as set out in resolution 2400. The Council will also be briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), as requested in resolution 2429. Read more

• Kosovo

  In February, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the situation in Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. According to established practice, Serbia is likely to participate at a high level while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In February, Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (OCT), and Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), are expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh), followed by consultations. Read more

• Iraq

  In February, the Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, is scheduled to brief the Council for the first time since officially assuming her position on 17 December 2018. She will be briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI, the most recent developments in the situation, and the latest Secretary-General’s report on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2019. Read more

• Council Visiting Mission

  During February, Security Council members are expected to undertake a visiting mission to Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau. Côte d’Ivoire and Equatorial Guinea are co-leading the mission. Read more

• Burundi

  In February, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Michel Kafando, is scheduled to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi in accordance with resolution 2303 of 29 July 2016, which requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on Burundi every three months. Ambassador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, may also brief; at press time, however, it was unclear if the meeting would take place. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In February, Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, the Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), will brief the Council on the MINUSCA report, due on 15 February. The chair of the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee Ambassador Léon Houadja Kacou Adom (Côte d’Ivoire) will also brief.   Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany) is due to provide his first briefing in this capacity. Ahead of the briefing, the committee is likely to discuss the final report of its Panel of Experts, although the report is not expected to be formally presented to the Council until March. Read more

• Open Debate on Silencing the Guns in Africa

  In February, under the agenda item “Cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organizations”, the Security Council will hold an open debate on the AU initiative on Silencing the Guns in Africa. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea is expected to chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres and Chairperson of the AU Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat are expected to brief. Equatorial Guinea intends to present a draft resolution endorsing the AU initiative, to be adopted during the debate. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In February, the Council will continue to follow the situation in the DRC. While no meeting was scheduled at press time, the Council may request to be briefed on the political situation and implementation of election benchmarks by the Special Representative and head of MONUSCO, Leila Zerrougui. Read more

• Myanmar

  Expected Council Action The Council anticipates a possible briefing in February on the situation in Myanmar from Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener, who visited the country at the end of January. There may also be interest in hearing from UNICEF... Read more

• Lead Roles within the Council in 2019: Penholders and Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies

  The tables in this Forecast have been updated to reflect the Security Council penholders and chairs of subsidiary bodies as of January 2019. They do not include all agenda items of which the Council is currently seized but do include items with regular outcomes or where a subsidiary body has been established. For the full list of the agenda items, please refer to the latest summary statement by the Secretary-General of matters of which the Security Council is seized and the stage reached in their consideration (S/2019/10). The list of chairs of subsidiary bodies is contained in a 2 January note by the Council president (S/2019/2). Read more