July 2018 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Sweden will have the presidency in July. Read more

• Status Update since our June Forecast

  Status Update since our June Forecast. Read more

• In Hindsight: Competing Texts on Israel/Palestine

  In recent months, the usual divisions in the Security Council on Israel/Palestine have been exacerbated, largely resulting from different interpretations of the violence that has occurred along the Gaza fence, where Palestinians began protesting against Israel on 30 March. Regarding these events, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov has said in his recent briefings to the Council that Israel must exercise restraint and use lethal force only as a last resort “under imminent threat of death or serious injury”, while Hamas must refrain from committing acts of violence and creating provocations (S/PV.8265 and S/PV.8256). Read more

• Myanmar

  In July, Council members expect to hold consultations on Myanmar. Possible briefers include the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, who was in Myanmar from 12 to 21 June, and High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. Read more

• Climate and Security

  In July, the Council will hold a debate on climate-related security risks. Expected briefers include a senior Secretariat official, a representative of a member state facing climate-related security challenges, and a civil society representative. Read more

• Syria

  In July, the Council expects to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on the use of chemical weapons. Read more

• South Sudan

  In July, the Council expects to adopt a resolution renewing the South Sudan sanctions regime, which expires on 15 July. The Council is also set to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assiting the South Sudan Sanctions Committee by no later than 15 July, to avoid its expiration on 14 August, as set out in resolution 2418. Prior to this, the Council will hold consultations on South Sudan sanctions. Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  In July, the Council will hold a high-level open debate on children and armed conflict with the theme, “Protecting Children Today Prevents Conflict Tomorrow”. Sweden, the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, has chosen to focus on how protecting children affected by armed conflict can contribute to conflict prevention and sustaining peace. The meeting will be chaired by Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba will present the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict circulated on 27 June. Other speakers include the executive director of UNICEF, Henrietta Fore, and Yenny Londoño, a civil society representative from Colombia. A resolution is expected to be adopted during the debate. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security: Sahel and Lake Chad Basin

  In July, the Council will hold a briefing on the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin focused on women, peace and security. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed and AU Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security Bineta Diop are expected to brief following a joint mission that they are undertaking to the region earlier in the month. A civil society representative is also expected to brief. Read more

• Libya

  In July, the Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), followed by consultations. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the sanctions committee expires on 15 November. Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 July expiry. Special Representative and head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and recent developments. Read more

• UN-AU Cooperation on Peace and Security

  In July, the Security Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s annual report on ways to strengthen the partnership between the UN and AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including on the work of the UN Office to the AU. Following this, Council members will hold their 12th annual consultative meeting with the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC). Members of both bodies will hold informal consultations ahead of this meeting. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In July, Mohammed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief the Council on recent developments and the semi-annual UNOWAS report. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In July, the Council will hold its quarterly open debate under the agenda item “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, which will focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Read more

• Somalia

  In July, the Council is expected to renew its authorisation of AMISOM, which expires on 31 July. Somalia, and most particularly funding for AMISOM, may also be raised during the briefing on the Secretary-General’s annual report on ways to strengthen the partnership between the UN and AU on issues of peace and security in Africa (as it was last year), and possibly will be discussed during the annual joint meeting of Council members with the AU Peace and Security Council, also planned for July. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In July, Special Representative Leila Zerrougui will brief the Council on the latest report on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Secretary-General may brief the Council after his planned July visit to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); a civil society representative may brief as well. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is expected to attend the consultations that follow. Read more

• Colombia

  In July, the Council will receive a briefing from Special Representative Jean Arnault on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. Read more

• Lebanon (1701)

  In July, Acting UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Pernille Dahler Kardel and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix will brief Council members in consultations on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Read more