December 2017 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2017
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  • Overview

    Japan will have the presidency in December. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our November Forecast. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Peacebuilding Commission

    For much of its existence, the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC)—created as an advisory body to the Security Council, the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council—has been looked at cynically by some members of the Security Council as not providing much added value to the Council’s work. The UN general membership and staff in the UN Secretariat have also often viewed the PBC as something of a disappointment. Council members, particularly the P5, have questioned its ability to advise on conflict-affected situations and have found its meetings redundant, duplicating discussion and information provided by the Secretariat during Council sessions. The PBC’s supporters, in turn, have criticised the Council for not being receptive to working with the PBC, thus limiting its ability over the years to demonstrate its value. Tensions have existed since the PBC’s creation in 2005, which occurred as Security Council reform stalled, with the P5 seeing the PBC as a forum created by member states to discuss peace and security issues, encroaching on the prerogatives of the Security Council. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In December, the Council is expected to hold a ministerial-level meeting on the threat and challenges posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to international peace and security. It is also expected to hold a meeting on the human rights situation in the DPRK. At press time, a group of at least nine countries was planning to send a joint letter by 1 December requesting that such a meeting be held. As in previous years, China is expected to object to the meeting, thus prompting a procedural vote. At press time it was unclear whether there would be enough votes to proceed with the meeting. The item, “The situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” was placed on the Council agenda through a procedural vote on 22 December 2014 and discussed also in 2015 and 2016, each time following a procedural vote. (Council decisions of a procedural nature need nine affirmative votes for a decision to be adopted, and the veto does not apply.) Read more

  • Yemen

    In December, the Council expects to be briefed on Yemen by Special Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed on efforts towards a political process. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock is likely to brief on the humanitarian situation. Read more

  • International Criminal Tribunals

    In December, the Security Council expects to hold its semi-annual debate on the ad hoc international criminal tribunals. The presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals—established in 2010 to carry out the essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the ICTY after the completion of their respective mandates—are expected to brief and may meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to the debate. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In December, the Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the authorisation for the Regional Protection Force (RPF), before their 15 December expiration. The Council is also expected to receive a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UNMISS, together with his monthly assessment of the deployment and future requirements of the RPF and impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Read more

  • Syria

    In December, the Council expects to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on chemical weapons. Council members are expected to negotiate the renewal of the authorisation, most recently extended through resolution 2332, for cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access, which expires on 10 January 2018. Read more

  • Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council Subsidiary Bodies

    Every December, the chairs of the subsidiary bodies who will be leaving the Council at the end of the year provide a briefing on their experience. The Council will receive briefings from the five Permanent Representatives completing their countries’ two-year terms on the Council. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In December, Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko (Ukraine), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is expected to provide the semi-annual briefing on the court’s work on Darfur.  Read more

  • Myanmar

    The Council is expected to have a briefing and hold consultations on the situation in Rakhine. The presidential statement on the situation adopted on 6 November requested the Secretary-General to brief on developments 30 days after the adoption. Any further Council action will depend on its assessment of developments over the last month. Read more

  • UNOCA/LRA

    In December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), is expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Read more

  • Liberia

    In December, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from Farid Zarif, the Special Representative and head of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), Chair of the Liberia configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), is also expected to brief. Read more

  • Golan Heights (UNDOF)

    In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. A representative of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will brief Council members in consultations on the most recent UNDOF report. Read more

  • Small Arms

    In December, the Council will hold a briefing at the initiative of Japan to consider the Secretary-General’s biennial report on small arms, which is expected by mid-December. At press time, no outcome was planned.     Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    The Council is expected to adopt a resolution in December renewing the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED), the Secretariat body that assists the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). In addition, The Council may also adopt a resolution on the issue of foreign terrorist fighters returning home or travelling to other regions. Read more

  • Iran

    In December, the Secretary-General will report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. In addition, reports are expected from the Joint Commission, established by the parties to the JCPOA to oversee its implementation, and from the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy). The Council is scheduled to hear briefings by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, Cardi, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission.   Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In December, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan and will consider the latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The Special Representative and head of UNAMA, Tadamichi Yamamoto, is expected to brief.  Read more

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