July 2016 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Japan holds the presidency of the Council for July. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in June 2016. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for July Read more

• Security Council Working Methods

  On 19 July, as one of the highlights of its presidency of the Council and to mark the tenth anniversary of the culmination of its first working methods initiative, Japan is organising an open debate on working methods. Read more

• Secretary-General Appointment

  The Council will hold its first straw poll on 21 July to gauge the viability of candidates who have been nominated for the position of the next UN Secretary-General. Depending on the results of that initial straw poll, there may be a second one held before the end of the month. Several informal meetings with candidates are also expected. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In July, Special Representative Parfait Onanga-Anyanga will brief on the strategic review of the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Read more

• Somalia

  In July, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution reauthorising the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The Council also expects to receive a briefing by the Chair of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Rafael Darío Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela). Read more

• Lebanon

  In July, Special Coordinator for Lebanon Sigrid Kaag and a representative of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Read more

• DRC

  In July, the Security Council will be briefed by Maman Sambo Sidikou, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). Read more

• UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel

  In July, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief on the semi-annual UNOWAS report. This is the first briefing on UNOWAS since the Council decided to merge the Office of the Special Envoy for the Sahel (OSES) into the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA). Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In July, the Council will hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East with a focus on the situation in Israel/Palestine and the absence of a path toward a political solution. An outcome is unlikely. Read more

• South Sudan

  In July, the Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on South Sudan. It is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) prior to the 31 July expiration. Read more

• Syria

  In July, Council members will receive their regular monthly briefings on the humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks regarding Syria. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura is also scheduled to brief on the intra-Syrian political process, which has been suspended since late April.  Read more

• Iraq

  In July, Special Representative Ján Kubiš will brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). UNAMI’s mandate, which expires on 31 July, is likely to be renewed for a year. Read more

• Iran

  In July, the Secretary-General is due to submit a report to the Security Council on the implementation of resolution 2231 adopted on 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman is expected to brief on the report. A briefing by the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), is also due.  Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months, ahead of its expiry on 31 July. Elizabeth Spehar, the new Special Representative and head of the mission, will brief the Council on the latest UNFICYP report, which is due in early July. Special Adviser Espen Barth Eide is expected to brief on the progress in the negotiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In July, the Council expects a briefing on the situation in Western Sahara and the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), as requested by resolution 2285. The resolution renewed MINURSO’s mandate and emphasised the urgent need for the mission to return to full functionality following Morocco’s expulsion of 84 civilian staff members in March due to a dispute with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, following Ban’s use of the term “occupation” to describe Morocco’s relationship to Western Sahara.  Read more

• Peacebuilding

  In July, Japan, as Council president, is organising a ministerial-level open debate, presided over by Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, on peacebuilding in Africa with a focus on institution-building. Read more