February 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 January 2016
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  • Overview

    Venezuela holds the presidency of the Council in February. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in January 2016. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for February Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Security Council in 2015: High Activity, Less Consensus

    Deteriorating crises and a more wide-ranging focus on countering terrorism resulted in the Council maintaining the high activity levels of 2014. Although there were no new issues that received the Council’s attention, situations already on the agenda, such as Burundi and Yemen, required greater attention. Terrorism was tackled from several angles, including the financing of terrorism and its impact on migration.  Read more

  • Yemen

    During February, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the 2140 Yemen sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel of Experts. Special Envoy Ismael Ould Cheikh Ahmed is also expected to brief. Current sanctions expire on 26 February, and the mandate of the Panel expires on 25 March. Read more

  • UNRCCA (Central Asia)

    In February, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Petko Draganov, is scheduled to brief Council members in consultations. It is possible that this will be followed by a press statement, as has been the practice in the past. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In early February, Ambassador Fodé Seck of Senegal, chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, will brief the Council on the Committee’s work in an open session, followed by consultations. The Council will consider adopting a resolution to renew the South Sudan sanctions regime and the mandate of the related Panel of Experts, both of which expire on 2 March. The Council is further expected to consider the latest Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), which expires on 31 July 2016. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In February, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, will provide the quarterly briefing to the Council on the Committee’s work. At press time, the format of the meeting (i.e. whether there will be a public briefing or just consultations) remained unclear. The Council is also expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts, which expires on 12 February. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In February, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), is due to brief Security Council members in consultations on the work of the Committee.  In addition, it is possible that the Council will adopt a resolution in response to the DPRK’s 6 January nuclear test.  Read more

  • Syria

    Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura is expected to brief in February pursuant to the request in resolution 2254 for an update on the UN-facilitated political process within 60 days. Read more

  • Iraq

    In February, Special Representative Ján Kubiš will brief on developments in Iraq and the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).  Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In February, Council members will receive their quarterly briefing on the implementation of resolution 2046 on Sudan/South Sudan issues. Haile Menkerios, the Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, is expected to brief via video teleconference on developments. No outcome is anticipated.  Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    In February, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), which expires on 28 February. Ahead of the renewal, Special Representative Miguel Trovoada is expected to brief on developments and the Secretary-General’s latest UNIOGBIS report. Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil), chair of the Guinea-Bissau country configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), will also brief. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In February, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Serbia is likely to participate at a high level, while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US.  Read more

  • Lead Roles within the Council in 2016: Penholders and Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies

    Every year, the Security Council revisits its allocation of chairmanships of its subsidiary bodies, a task entrusted to elected Council members. As this chart illustrates, there is scant correlation between the “penholders” for situation-specific agenda items and the chairs of the relevant subsidiary bodies. Read more

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