September 2015 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 August 2015
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  • Overview

    Russia will hold the Council presidency in September. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in August 2015. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for September Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Process of Selecting a UN Secretary-General

    Before the end of 2016, the next UN Secretary-General has to be chosen. The Security Council had its first informal discussion on this issue on 22 July. Though no meetings are scheduled in September in the Council on the Secretary-General selection process, members will be participating in the final stages of negotiations on a draft resolution in the General Assembly on the revitalisation of its work, which includes significant paragraphs on the selection process. Read more

  • South Sudan

    Council members continue to follow events in South Sudan closely. While no Council meetings on South Sudan are currently scheduled in September, it is possible that this issue could be addressed during the month, given the anticipated need to adjust the mandate of UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) following the signature on 26 August by President Salva Kiir of the peace agreement proposed by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 November.   Read more

  • Liberia

    In September, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the latest report of the Secretary-General on UNMIL. Resolutions are anticipated regarding Liberia sanctions (the arms embargo and travel ban expire 9 September and the mandate of the Panel of Experts expires 9 October) and UNMIL (the mandate expires 30 September). Read more

  • Libya

    In September, the Council is due to renew the mandate of UNSMIL. Depending on developments in the political dialogue, Bernardino León, the Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, might brief on his efforts to bring on board the parties that have yet to initial the political agreement. Read more

  • Syria

    In September, Council members expect to receive their regular monthly briefings on the chemical weapons and humanitarian tracks in Syria. In addition, early in the month the Council is expected to exchange letters with the Secretary-General regarding the recommendations to establish a UN-OPCW Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) to determine responsibility for the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Iran

    In September, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), is due to provide his quarterly briefing to the Council on the Committee’s work. The 1737 Committee is also likely to meet earlier in the month ahead of this briefing. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In September, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan, during which it will consider the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Nicholas Haysom, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Afghanistan and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. No outcome is anticipated. UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2016.   Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    In September, Council members will hold consultations on the implementation of resolution 2046 on Sudan/South Sudan issues, as well as on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). Haile Menkerios, the Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, is expected to brief on developments, while Hervé Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, is likely to brief on UNISFA’s activities. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In September, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) will brief Council members in consultations on the report on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), due 11 September. No outcome is expected. Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    In September, the Council is expected to hold a ministerial-level open debate on the settlement of conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa and countering the terrorist threat in the region. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected to brief the Council and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is likely to preside. A presidential statement is expected as an outcome. Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    While no meetings are currently scheduled, according to the terms of resolution 2203, the Council may review in September the Guinea-Bissau sanctions regime and possibly adopt a resolution. The 2048 Guinea-Bissau sanctions regime is open-ended and the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) expires on 29 February 2016. Read more

  • Mali

    Even though no meetings are scheduled in September, Council members are expected to follow the situation in Mali closely in view of the ceasefire violations that took place in mid-August. Read more

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