October 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2013
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Overview

    Azerbaijan will preside over the Security Council in October. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in September 2013. Read more

  • Notable Dates for October

    Notable Dates for October Read more

  • In Hindsight: Chapter VII

    Permanent members have worked overtime for nearly two weeks to codify into a Security Council decision the 14 September Russia-US agreement to secure and dismantle chemical weapons stockpiles in Syria. With the issue of whether the Council acts under Chapters VI or VII of the UN Charter, and whether it does so in a binding manner, at the core of these negotiations, it may be worthwhile to take a closer look at this matter. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In October, the Security Council will be briefed by Special Representative Martin Kobler and by the Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Mary Robinson, on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the Region (PSC Framework). Read more

  • Visiting Mission to Africa

    Council members are planning to visit Addis Ababa, Kigali, Goma, Kampala and Kinshasa in early October. A briefing on the mission is expected on 21 October with a written report to follow. Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    In October, the Council expects to hold two meetings, likely in consultations, on compliance by Sudan, South Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) with resolution 2046. The Council also expects to discuss in consultations the most recent report of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), whose mandate expires on 30 November.  At press time, no outcome was anticipated on these matters.  Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In October, the Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). At press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

  • Somalia

    In October, the Council will be briefed by Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson on three reports: from Somalia regarding developments since modification of the arms embargo in March; from the AU and the UN regarding a review of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and benchmarking for a potential UN peacekeeping operation; and from the Secretary-General regarding piracy. Council members will also hold consultations. An outcome is not expected as reauthorisation of anti-piracy measures, which expire on 21 November, will not be taken up until November. Read more

  • Mali

    In October, the Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Albert Gerard Koenders. The briefing will be followed by consultations. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    In October, the Council members expect a briefing in consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) by Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of MINURSO, and Christopher Ross, the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In October, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing in consultations from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 urged the disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

  • Israel/Palestine

    In October the Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East featuring a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman. Discussions will likely focus on the current direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians, though they may also cover other developments in the region. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In October, the Council is likely to extend the authorisation of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan ahead of its expiry on 13 October. Given that the Council discussed Afghanistan in a debate on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on 19 September, a wider discussion is not anticipated at this point. UNAMA’s mandate expires on 19 March 2013.   Read more

  • Haiti

    In October, the Council is scheduled to renew the mandate of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) before it expires on 15 October, most likely with a 15 per cent reduction in troop numbers. Read more

  • Cooperation with Regional and Subregional Organisations

    In October, the Council will hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations, focusing on strengthening the partnership with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). A high-level representative of Azerbaijan will preside over the meeting. The UN Secretary-General is expected to brief the Council, along with the Secretary-General of the OIC. A presidential statement is a likely outcome. Read more

  • Security Council Working Methods

    In October, the Council will hold its annual open debate on its working methods. The Chair of the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions, Ambassador Maria Cristina Perceval (Argentina) will brief. No outcome is anticipated. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    In October the Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security. The Secretary-General and the new head of UN Women, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, are expected to brief, possibly along with a civil society representative. The focus of the debate will be the intersections between the thematic agendas of the rule of law and women, peace and security. Read more

  • Annual Report of the Security Council

    In October the Council is expected to adopt its annual report to the General Assembly covering the period from 1 August 2012 through 31 July 2013. The US—which, as Council President in July is responsible for drafting the introduction of the report—is expected to address the Council. Read more

  • Security Council Elections 2013

    On 17 October, the General Assembly is scheduled to elect five non-permanent members of the Security Council for the two-year term beginning on 1 January 2014.  Read more

Download Complete Forecast: PDF