March 2013 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  The Russian Federation will preside over the Security Council in March.  Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in February 2013. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for March 2013 Read more

• Afghanistan

  The Council is scheduled to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which expires on 23 March. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Ján Kubiš, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA are expected to brief during the quarterly debate on the situation in Afghanistan. Read more

• Iran

  The chair of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee is due to present the quarterly briefing on the work of the Committee to the Council. This will be the first briefing by Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia) since he assumed the chairmanship of the Committee on 1 January.  Read more

• Iraq

  Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Iraq and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), will brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNAMI. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Lebanon

  The Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Derek Plumbly, is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the most recent report of the Secretary-General on resolution 1701 (which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006), due by the end of February. Though no outcome is expected, a press statement following the meeting is possible. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  Council members will receive a briefing in consultations from Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF). This will be the first report on UNDOF under a more frequent reporting cycle following the adoption of resolution 2084 on 19 December 2012. No outcome is likely. Read more

• Yemen

  The Council expects a briefing in consultations on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on the situation in Yemen. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Somalia

  The Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and endorsing one of the Secretary-General’s options for the reconfiguration of the UN presence. AMISOM’s current Council authorisation ends on 7 March, while its AU mandate expires on 14 July.   Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  The Council is scheduled to hold two meetings, likely in consultations, to discuss relations between Sudan and South Sudan, in accordance with resolution 2046. At press time, the Council had been negotiating a draft presidential statement since mid-February. (It seems that the statement is in large part meant to express concern about the lack of implementation of the 27 September 2012 agreements on security, oil wealth-sharing, nationalities and other issues and underscores the importance of compliance with resolution 2046.) However, it was unclear if and when Council members would be able to achieve consensus on the draft statement.  Read more

• South Sudan

  The Council expects to hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the situation in South Sudan and the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). No outcome is expected at press time. The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 July 2013.  Read more

• Libya

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Tarek Mitri, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNSMIL, is expected to present the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNSMIL and brief the Council on the latest developments on the ground. Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan is also likely to address the Council. Read more

• Mali

  The Council is expected to be briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary-General of Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, and will discuss the upcoming report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  The Council will be briefed in consultations on the quarterly report on efforts to restore constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau following the 12 April 2012 coup, possibly by Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Liberia

  The Council expects a briefing by Karin Landgren, Special Representative of the Secretary-General to Liberia and head of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), on the situation in Liberia, followed by consultations. In line with Council practice, Staffan Tillander (Sweden), Chair of the Liberia configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), may also brief the Council following the recent PBC mission visit to the country. Read more

• Sierra Leone

  The Council expects a briefing in March by Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General in Sierra Leone and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL). A likely outcome is the adoption of a resolution renewing UNIPSIL’s mandate which expires on 31 March. Read more

• Haiti

  The Council will consider the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). The report is expected to include a plan for the consolidation of MINUSTAH based on a set of stabilisation benchmarks. A debate with a briefing by Nigel Fisher (Canada), acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of mission, is expected. At press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

• Cyprus

  In March, Council members may be briefed in consultations by Alexander Downer, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Cyprus, on the prospects for progress in negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities. The mandate of the UN Force in Cyprus expires on 31 July. Read more