February 2013 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  The Republic of Korea (ROK) will preside over the Security Council in February. An open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict is planned with ROK Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan expected to preside. A briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations is also expected.  Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this status update of Security Council activity in January 2013. Read more

• Mali

  In February, the Council is expecting a report from the AU on the deployment and activities of the African led International Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA), in line with resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for February 2013 Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In February, the Council will likely renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) for a limited period of three months, as recommended by the Secretary-General in his latest report on developments in the country and on the activities of the office. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  The Council will likely renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, which expires on 17 February. (The Panel’s final report was circulated to the Committee on 24 January.) Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In February, the Council is scheduled to hold two meetings on Sudan/South Sudan relations in accordance with resolution 2046. The Council is also likely to discuss in consultations the most recent Secretary-General’s report on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), whose mandate expires on 31 May. At press time, it was unclear whether there would be an outcome. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In February, the Council expects a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous about possible modifications to the mandate of the UN Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to address the threat by the rebel group the March 23 Movement —a source of instability in the region and of massive displacement of civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Read more

• Burundi

  In February, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB). BNUB’s mandate expires on 15 February. Read more

• Somalia

  In February, the Council will consider the Secretary-General’s report on Somalia (due 31 January), which will provide options and recommendations for the future UN presence in the country. A briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman is expected. Read more

• Yemen

  In February, the Council expects a briefing on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on the situation in Yemen, as well as by the UK and Morocco on the Council’s 27 January visit to the country. The briefing is likely to be followed by consultations. Read more

• Kosovo

  Farid Zarif, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), is scheduled to brief the Council in February during a quarterly debate. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), the new chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, is scheduled to provide a 90-day report to Council members. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In February, the Council is scheduled to hold its biannual open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict. The Secretary-General is expected to brief along with Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos and High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay and ICRC Director for International Law and Cooperation Philip Spoerri. The meeting will be chaired by Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan of the Republic of Korea (ROK). Read more

• Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies and Pen Holders for 2013

  Every year, the Security Council revisits its allocation of chairmanships of its subsidiary bodies, a task entrusted to the elected Council members following deliberations between the P5 and separate consultations with the elected members. Decisions regarding the 2013 distribution were finalised during the last week of December 2012. Read more

• Security Council Statistics in 2012

  With 53 resolutions adopted in 2012, the year saw a sharp decline (-19.7 percent) in resolutions relative to 2011 (when 66 resolutions were adopted) and a decrease in total decisions (-6.8 percent) that was attenuated by the adoption of 29 presidential statements. Non-consensual resolutions were on the rise relative to 2011, as four resolutions (2058, 2063, 2068 and 2081) were adopted by a vote and two draft resolutions (S/2012/77 and S/2012/538, both on the situation in Syria) were jointly vetoed by China and Russia. Read more