November 2007 Monthly Forecast

• Somalia

  The Council is expected to consider in informal consultations the Secretary-General's report on Somalia, which now seems likely to be available by the end of October. Despite the worsening situation in Somalia, it seems unlikely that any new concrete proposals on political reconciliation, sanctions or support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will emerge. AMISOM's Council authorisation expires on 20 February. Read more

• Overview

  In November Indonesia will have the presidency of the Council. It seems that the Council may have four major open debates in November: in early November an open thematic debate on Cooperation between the Council and Regional Organisations appears possible;... Read more

• Lebanon

  The Council is expected to hold at least two sets of informal consultations on Lebanon in November. One, early in the month, will address the report on resolution 1559, and another later in the month will cover issues arising under resolution 1701, such as disarmament and arms smuggling, and the Sheb'a Farms. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  The Council is expected to reauthorise the EU Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR) before the end of its mandate on 21 November. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  Council members will receive the Secretary-General's report on the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It is due by 15 November and expected to contain possible benchmarks for a drawdown of MONUC. There is a possibility of discussions in informal consultations perhaps leading to a statement on the deteriorating situation in the eastern part of the country. Read more

• Prevention of Armed Conflict

  The Council is expected to consider a report from the Secretary-General on options for further implementation of resolution 1625. Adopted at a heads of state level summit in 2005, this resolution addressed the Security Council's role in the prevention of armed conflict, particularly in Africa. Read more

• Iraq (MNF Renewal)

  The mandate of the Multinational Force (MNF) in Iraq expires on 31 December. However, the Council is likely to bring forward the renewal of the MNF mandate and act on this in November. At the time of writing it is unclear when the Iraqi government request for the renewal of the MNF mandate will be received. Read more

• Iran

  The Council is unlikely to take up the issue of Iran's nuclear programme in November. Discussions among the EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US) are likely to continue following the completion of the report from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on progress for implementation of the work plan agreed between Iran and the IAEA to resolve outstanding issues to be submitted to the IAEA board of directors on 22 November. Read more

• Myanmar

  The Secretary-General's Special Adviser on Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari is expected to brief the Council again in November after his visit to Myanmar (which at press time was expected in early November). Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for November 2007. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  Council members are expected to closely monitor Khartoum's level of cooperation over the deployment of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), and the challenges facing the Sirte peace talks, in particular the lack of rebel attendance. (At press time, the talks were due to start on 27 October.) Read more

• Sierra Leone

  A long overdue report from the Secretary-General on the UN Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL), including proposals for defining UNIOSIL's future role, could lead experts to begin work on a draft resolution. The UNIOSIL mandate expires on 31 December. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General's report on the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) in early November. The impending deadline set by the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) for demarcating the borders between the two countries is also likely to come up in informal consultations. A presidential or a press statement is possible. UNMEE's mandate expires on 31 January 2008. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism: Briefings to the Council

  Twice a year the chairs of the Security Council's three counter-terrorism committees brief the Council. The next briefing is due in November when the chairs of the Counter-Terrorism Committee, the Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism Committee and the Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Committee will address the Council. Read more

• Timor-Leste

  In late November, Council members are expected to undertake a field mission to Timor-Leste. It seems that after the period of violence and instability in 2006-07, the formation of the new Timorese government has encouraged the Council to accept the importance of displaying, on the ground, evidence of an enduring commitment to Timor-Leste. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters awaiting attention include: The 2005 World Summit requested the Security Council to consider reforms relating to the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed. Since a briefing in March, the Council has not addressed the issue of ... Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in October 2007. Read more