October 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2007
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  • Security Council Elections 2007

    On 16 October 2007 the General Assembly will hold elections for five non-permanent seats on the Security Council. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    The mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is due to expire on 31 October. The Secretary-General is expected to recommend renewal for a further six months, and the Council is likely to agree. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in September 2007. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    The Secretary-General's Special Representative, Tom Koenigs, is expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General's semi-annual report on Afghanistan published on 21 September. Read more

  • Aide Memoire

    Important matters awaiting attention include: The 2005 World Summit requested the Security Council to consider reforms relating to the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed. The UNAMI report on human rights in Iraq, usually produced every two to three... Read more

  • Kosovo

    The Secretary-General's Special Representative, Joachim Rucker, is expected to present the Secretary-General's latest report on the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) in informal consultations. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    This are notable dates for October 2007. Read more

  • Sudan: North-South

    The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS), which expires on 31 October. It is unclear whether members will want to use this opportunity to convey key messages regarding challenges surrounding the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Read more

  • Upcoming Issues in Sanctions and Counter-Terrorism Committees

    Upcoming Issues in Sanctions and Counter-Terrorism Committees Read more

  • Somalia

    In October, consultations are likely and expected to review the forthcoming Secretary-General's report, which is anticipated to cover: status of the political process; steps for an increased UN role in that regard, including the recent appointment of the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, with reinforced status; the humanitarian and security situation; recommendations on UN support for AMISOM; and an update on contingency planning for a UN mission in Somalia. Read more

  • Sudan/Darfur

    Council members are expected to pay close attention to progress with deploying the UN-AU Mission in the Sudan (UNAMID) and the peace process. Read more

  • Iraq (UNMOVIC)

    A report by the Secretary-General on the archives and other property of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) is due by 29 September. Following the apparent false alarm on potentially hazardous UNMOVIC chemical material within UN premises in August, the Council is expected to give serious attention to the report in early October. Action by way of a letter to the Secretary-General seems likely. Read more

  • Côte d’Ivoire

    By 15 October, the Council is expected to review the mandate of the UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) and the French Licorne forces, as well as UNOCI troop levels. A report by the Secretary-General on progress towards implementing the Ouagadougou agreement is expected to be submitted ahead of the Council's deliberations. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    The Chairman of the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea, Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, will brief the Council in October. Resolution 1718, which established the Committee in October 2006 following North Korea's nuclear test, requires a report every ninety days. Read more

  • Overview

    In October Ghana will have the presidency of the Council. It seems that Ghana will highlight the issue of Women, Peace and Security as a thematic issue during its presidency. The month will begin with an Arria style meeting focused on this... Read more

  • Haiti

    The Council will discuss a draft resolution presented by the Group of Friends of Haiti (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Peru and the US). It is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), which is due to expire on 15 October. Read more

  • Nepal

    The Council is expected to discuss the Secretary-General's latest report on Nepal and to receive a briefing by Ian Martin, the Secretary-General's Special Representative in Nepal. Discussions are expected to focus on the latest political developments, the security situation and preparations for constituent assembly elections scheduled for 22 November. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    On 23 October the Council will hold a debate on women, peace and security. A report from the Secretary-General assessing progress and presenting a new framework for inter-agency activities for the period covering 2008-2010 is expected, as well as a "concept paper" from Ghana as president of the Council. The debate seems likely to concentrate on the way forward for implementing resolution 1325 on women, peace and security, with particular focus on accountability for implementation. A presidential statement is likely. Read more

  • Iran

    At press time, the issue of Iran's nuclear programme and its non-compliance with international obligations under resolutions 1696, 1737 and 1747 to suspend uranium enrichment was being discussed among the EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US). It seems unlikely that there will be sufficient agreement for a draft resolution intensifying sanctions against Iran to be introduced in October. Read more

  • Georgia

    The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), which expires on 15 October. Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    The Council is expected to receive the Secretary-General's quarterly report on the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) and a possible briefing by the Secretary-General's Representative in Guinea-Bissau, Shola Omoregie. Read more

  • Ethiopia/Eritrea

    The Council is expected to receive the Secretary-General's report on the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), and may subsequently issue either a presidential or press statement. UNMEE's mandate expires on 31 January 2008. Read more

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