July 2007 Monthly Forecast

• Iran

  It now seems unlikely that recent diplomatic initiatives aimed at resuming negotiations between Iran and the EU3+3 (France, Germany, UK + China, Russia and US) on Iran's nuclear programme will produce early results. A new resolution expanding sanctions against Iran is therefore likely to be adopted in July. Read more

• Overview

  China will have the presidency of the Council in July. A very heavy programme of work is anticipated. No thematic debates are currently envisaged, especially in light of fact that two important thematic debates were held in June. It may... Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  There is strong momentum in the Council to now move quickly on a resolution to endorse the hybrid operation. Members seem likely to see an authorising resolution as an important first step in moving through the practical difficulties which undoubtedly lie ahead. Read more

• Iraq

  In November 2003 the Iraq "oil-for-food" programme was terminated. Since then, the Council has been overseeing completion of the programme's remaining activities. Read more

• Georgia

  In July the Council is expected to receive the Secretary-General's quarterly report on the situation in Abkhazia and a briefing by the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Georgia, Jean Arnault. Discussions are expected to be limited. Some members may raise the report of the Joint Fact-Finding Group (JFFG) which investigated the firing in the Kodori Valley on 11 March. Read more

• Chad/CAR

  The improvements in the overall atmosphere in the region, as a result of the progress between Sudan and the UN as well as the AU over Darfur may encourage the Council to revisit the issue of international deployments in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR). Read more

• North Korea

  Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, the Chair of the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (the DPRK, or North Korea), will brief the Council in July. Resolution 1718, which in October established the Sanctions Committee, requires a report every 90 days. Read more

• Western Sahara

  Western Sahara appears to have entered a new phase. Direct talks between Morocco and the Polisario have resumed in June, following Council resolution 1754. They mark an historic opportunity, and the Council is likely to encourage these negotiations to produce positive results. Finding the right mix of support and pressure for the parties to engage will be an ongoing challenge. Read more

• Somalia

  It seems unlikely in July that the Council will seriously consider a future UN peacekeeping role in Somalia. The security situation continues to be very dangerous and progress with political reconciliation is hesitant. It is unclear whether members will want to explore other options for UN involvement in Somalia, particularly in the political reconciliation process. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in June 2007. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The Council is expected to limit its focus to the renewal of mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), which expires on 31 July. Some members may raise the possible implications of the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) deadline in November for demarcation of the border. Read more

• Nepal

  The Council is scheduled to discuss the Secretary-General's latest report on Nepal, and be briefed by Ian Martin, the Secretary-General's Special Representative in Nepal. The report is expected to focus on preparations for the constituent assembly elections planned for November and provide an update on the recent work of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN). Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  The Council in July is expected to focus its attention on the issue of sanctions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The report by the Group of Experts is due on 10 July and the discussions on the renewal of the sanctions regime and the Group's mandate by 31 July. The Council will also have the report of its mid-June mission to Kinshasa. Read more

• Kosovo

  For most of June, action on Kosovo took place outside the Council at the G8 Summit and in bilateral and group discussions. A new draft resolution was circulated towards the end of the month, and consultations among Council members were taking place at ambassadorial level. Read more

• Lebanon

  Lebanon seems likely to produce even greater challenges in July amid conflict between the Lebanese army and Palestinian militants, reports of widespread rearming of Lebanese militias and increasing security challenges to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The Council seems ready to maintain momentum on resolution 1701. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending before the Council include: The  2005 World Summit requested the Security Council to consider reforms relating to the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed. The issue of small arms raised by Argentina in March 2006 is still awaiting... Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for July 2007. Read more