October 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2006
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  • Somalia

    The Council is likely to continue to discuss how best to support the ongoing talks between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). In that context, continuing discussions are likely on modifications to the arms embargo (including equipment for training Somali security forces and criteria for targeted sanctions). Read more

  • Peacebuilding Commission

    The Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) is expected to hold its first formal country-specific meetings on Sierra Leone and Burundi on 12 and 13 October, respectively. Reports from the Peacebuilding Support Office and from the Sierra Leonean and Burundian governments are expected. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in September 2006. Read more

  • Georgia

    The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), which expires on 15 October 2006. A vigorous discussion of recent developments, including the Georgian parliament's non-binding request for withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, is possible. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable dates for October 2006. Read more

  • Côte d’Ivoire

    In October, the Council will receive recommendations from the African Union on the future of the peace process in Côte d'Ivoire. The AU is expected to receive proposals from the Economic Community of West African States on 4 October and from the International Working Group, which is the body in charge of following the peace process. Read more

  • Aide Memoire

    Important matters pending for the Council are: In October 2004 the Council requested  a report on the practical steps the UN could take to strengthen its action in support of transitional justice and the rule of law in conflict and... Read more

  • Overview

    After an exceptionally busy summer and a September filled with the usual annual flurry of high level activities related to the opening debate of the General Assembly, October is likely to see Council members turning more sustained attention to several... Read more

  • Lebanon

    Lebanon is likely to take a considerable amount of the Council's time and attention in October. Members will be following developments related to the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and authorised a reinforcement of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. Read more

  • Uganda

    At the time of writing, Council action appears to be on hold until the results of the peace talks between the government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) are known. Some members are currently working on a follow-up to the Secretary-General's recommendations on the LRA, in particular the appointment of a special envoy. Read more

  • Security Council Diamond Sanctions and the Kimberly Process

    The Council's review in October of the Liberia diamond sanctions will highlight international efforts to prohibit the trade in conflict diamonds. The illicit trade in diamonds has fuelled a number of conflicts in West Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire and Angola. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    No formal Council action on Afghanistan is expected for October, but members will closely watch developments. Given the deterioration in the security situation, a presidential statement or statements to the press seem possible. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    The Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security on 27 October. The theme of this year's discussion is women's role in the consolidation of peace. A presidential statement addressing the challenges of implementing and monitoring resolution 1325 on women, peace and security is the expected outcome. Read more

  • Sudan

    The Council will continue to focus on the planned transition from the AU Mission in the Sudan (AMIS) in Darfur to the UN. The Council is also likely to be paying close attention to the beginning of the implementation of the UN package of assistance to AMIS, which resolution 1706 sets as the start of a phased transition. Members will also need to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS), which expires on 8 October. Read more

  • Central African Republic

    No formal Council action on the Central African Republic (CAR) in October is expected at press time. Given the potential for further regional instability, however, Council members may see a need for a statement. The Secretary-General's report is expected in October, but discussions may carry on into November depending on when it is issued. Read more

  • Security Council Elections

    On 16 October, the General Assembly will hold elections for five non-permanent seats on the Security Council. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October. Referred to in the Secretary-General's report of 19 April (S/2006/249), the recommendations of the Secretary-General's Personal Envoy to Western Sahara, Peter van Walsum, on a political solution are still on the table and may be reiterated in the upcoming report. However, given the other pressures on the Council's time at present, major new developments seem unlikely. Read more

  • Timor-Leste

    No formal action on Timor-Leste is expected for October at press time. But the Council will receive two reports: the report of the Special Commission of Inquiry on facts and circumstances leading to the recent crisis, due by 7 October; and the Secretary-General's report on arrangements between the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) and the international security forces, due 25 October (but it may be discussed only in November). Read more

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