March 2006 Monthly Forecast

• Lebanon/Syria

  The first quarterly progress report of the UN International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) is due on 15 March, and firm Council action can be expected if it reveals clear non-cooperation by Syria. Read more

• Overview

  In March the Council is likely to have three open debates which will focus on: Haiti: this will begin the discussion about the future role for the UN in Haiti once the electoral process is completed. Small Arms: a thematic... Read more

• Georgia

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), which expires on 31 March. However, this may require adopting another technical rollover. Read more

• Sanctions Committees

  Over the last sixty years, the Council has utilised this power to establish a very wide range of subsidiary bodies, including: committees, working groups, commissions, missions and international tribunals. Read more

• Liberia

  The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), which expires on 31 March. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In March the Council will receive the quarterly report by the Secretary-General on the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS). Read more

• Iran

  The 6 March session of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the IAEA report on the implementation by Iran of its Non-Proliferation Treaty's Safeguards Agreement will be the trigger for the Council to take up the Iran issue. The Council's handling of this issue at the initial stages is likely to be incremental and not overly contentious. The initial question will be procedural-whether a new or an existing agenda item should be used. Read more

• Small Arms

  The Council will discuss the Secretary-General's report on small arms in an open debate and it is expected to adopt a resolution or a presidential statement addressing the problem. An Arria formula meeting is also planned. Read more

• Iraq

  In March the quarterly report of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) is due. Also the US is expected to report to the Council on the activities of the multinational force. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  A few important matters that are awaiting action include: The report by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Juan Méndez, on his visit to Côte d’Ivoire was “shared” with the Council, but has not yet been made public. At... Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In early March the Council will review the situation in Côte d'Ivoire in light of a briefing from the Secretariat. The future of an infantry company from the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) to Côte d'Ivoire, deployed in February, will also arise and these discussions may lead to a review of the tasks and the troop level of the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) later in the month. A new resolution is possible. Read more

• Sudan

  The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). But the major focus of attention will be the transition from the AU operation in Darfur (AMIS) to a new UN operation. If the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) ministerial meeting on 3 March endorses the transition, this will open the way for the Council to work on the details of the mandate for the UN operation in March. Read more

• Burundi

  The Council will discuss the Secretary-General's drawdown plan for the UN Operation in Burundi (ONUB) and possible adjustments to its mandate. The plan will be presented in a report from the Secretary-General due by 15 March. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) by mid-March. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether a technical rollover will be needed, or whether there will be radical changes to UNMEE's size and mandate. Much now depends on the outcome of the US diplomatic initiative. Read more

• Afghanistan

  The Council is expected to review and extend the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) after it receives the recommendations of the Secretary-General in his March regular report. The report of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has yet to be presented to the Council. Read more

• Haiti

  The Council is expected to hold an open debate in March on the situation in Haiti and the future role for the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). A presidential statement welcoming the results of the second round of parliamentary elections, to be held on 19 March, is also likely. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for March 2006. Read more