February 2006 Monthly Forecast

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for February 2006. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  The Council will take an increasingly active interest in the AU/UN discussions on a future role for the UN in Darfur following the decision of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) on 12 January to approve in principle a transition from the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to the UN, "within the framework of the partnership between the AU and the UN". The final decision will be taken later in March; and the confirmation by the Secretary-General after his lunch meeting with the Council on the same day that the Secretariat will be preparing contingency plans. Read more

• Kosovo

  The Security Council will review the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the standards-implementation process and the ongoing decreases in the size of the mission. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Søren Jessen-Petersen, is likely to be present to brief the Council on the latest report from the Secretary-General. Read more

• Afghanistan

  The Council is expected to endorse the Afghanistan Compact, a five-year framework for reconstruction to be adopted in early February in London at an international conference co-chaired by the UK, the UN and the Afghan government. Read more

• Lebanon/Syria

  Ongoing pressure in the Council on Syria to comply with resolutions 1559, 1636 and 1644 can be expected. However, with the adoption of the presidential statement (S/PRST/2006/03) on 23 January relating to resolution 1559, and with no formal deadlines on the Lebanon/Syria issue during February, Council action is expected to be informal and supplemented by media statements by the President. Read more

• Iraq

  The Council is likely to welcome the formation of a new government in Iraq resulting from the December 2005 elections, or at least welcome the results of the elections if it takes longer for the government to be formed. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The 30-day hold on Council action to facilitate a US diplomatic initiative on the Ethiopia-Eritrea crisis ends on 9 February. At the time of writing, it seems possible that some additional time will be necessary. Read more

• Haiti

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), which expires on 15 February. After a very bad month for both MINUSTAH and Haiti in January the Council will also be looking to bolster the electoral process, reinvigorate MINUSTAH and encourage a reduction in violence. Read more

• Iran

  The Security Council will take up the issue of Iran's nuclear programme after a referral from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is likely to be adopted by the IAEA Board of Governors at a special meeting on 2 and 3 February in Vienna. Read more

• Overview

  The Council is facing a very heavy work programme for February, despite it being a relatively light month in terms of scheduled items. The only major scheduled item is the renewal of the mandate for the United Nations Mission in... Read more

• Somalia

  In February, the Council will receive the regular report of the Secretary-General on Somalia. The Sanctions Committee will receive the midterm briefing of the Monitoring Group. Read more