October 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 October 2026
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are the anticipated briefers. 

Key Recent Developments

In September, Yemen experienced a significant increase in hostilities, unravelling a UN-mediated truce agreed in 2022 between the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group—which controls most of northwestern Yemen—and the Saudi-led “Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen” (the Coalition). Tensions came to a head in July when Houthi grievances with Saudi Arabia resurfaced over a years-long air and sea blockade imposed by the Coalition on Houthi territory, leading to reciprocal strikes and clashes between the Houthis on the one side and the Coalition and the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government of Yemen on the other. Subsequently, the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and struck commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a maritime corridor connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. (Since November 2024, the Houthis have used a similar strategy to target Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in support of Palestinians in Gaza.)

On 8 September, the Houthis launched a series of missile and drone attacks targeting several locations in southern Saudi Arabia, reportedly injuring 73 people, and causing damage to energy facilities. The Houthis framed the attack as a retaliation to what they said was a Saudi strike on a prison in the Yemeni governorate of Al-Jawf that killed seven people, including one child.

On 10 September, the Houthis seized control of the port city of Mokha from forces aligned with Yemen’s government. The next day the group captured Perim Island in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and gained control over Yemen’s west coast, bordering the Red Sea. According to media reports, advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were present during the fighting and provided direct support during the rapid offensive.

Subsequent attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia have included ballistic missile and drone strikes on military bases, energy infrastructure, and on Riyadh, causing a fire at King Khalid International Airport. On 16 September, Saudi Arabia said that its forces intercepted a Houthi-launched drone heading towards the holy city of Mecca. The Houthis rejected claims that the group would target the city or any other holy sites, and have reportedly accused the Saudis of conducting dozens of airstrikes across Yemen—including on Al-Jawf, Marib, Saada, and Taiz governorates—some of which they said killed civilians, including women and children.

Yemen’s government forces have reportedly concentrated efforts on preventing the Houthis from expanding further east into the Kahboub mountains and surrounding highlands, from where the group could gain a defensive foothold over recently seized territory and increase pressure on government-controlled areas in Lahij and Taiz governorates. On 21 and 22 September, Yemeni armed forces reportedly said that they had retaken strategic positions in the highlands and in Taiz governorate from the Houthis. Fighting has continued to intensify around Taiz city—Yemen’s third most populous city— which sits between Houthi-controlled areas in the north and government-controlled areas in the south.

In a 24 September statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk expressed alarm at the civilian toll of the expanding conflict in Yemen, reporting that at least 125 civilians have been killed and wounded and 125,000 people displaced since early August. He urged all parties to protect civilians and facilitate humanitarian access and reiterated calls for the immediate release of 73 UN staff members who remain arbitrarily detained by the Houthis. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), around 3,000 people have crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait to seek refuge in Djibouti, straining capacity in the country’s already burdened refugee camps. UN aid agencies have also warned that the renewed fighting is deepening Yemen’s hunger crisis, with mobile health clinics reporting severe malnutrition among hundreds of displaced children.

The Council has held two emergency meetings to discuss the escalating developments. In response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Council held a meeting—requested by Bahrain and the UK (the penholder on Yemen)—on 10 September, during which Grundberg briefed. (For more information, see our 10 September What’s in Blue story.) On 15 September, the Council convened again—following a request from Bahrain, Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK—to discuss the Houthis’ expanded control over Yemen’s west coast. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Europe, the Americas, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed the Council.

On 18 September, Council members issued a press statement (SC/16458) condemning continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including on civilian and energy infrastructure, on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, and the “ongoing Houthi military escalation in Yemen”. They demanded an end to the escalations, expressed concern over civilian casualties and displacement, and reaffirmed support for Yemen’s government and a UN-led political process. This was the second press statement on Yemen that Council members issued in as many months, following one on 7 August (SC/16429) which had expressed members’ concerns at heightened tensions in Yemen and called on the Houthis to de-escalate and pursue dialogue.

The most recent monthly Secretary-General’s report, dated 10 September, on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea confirmed that from 9 August to 9 September the Houthis attacked three commercial vessels, killing four seafarers in the 11 August attack on the Tanzania-flagged Tihamah cargo ship. This report was submitted in line with a Council-mandated reporting requirement, initially requested by resolution 2722 of 10 January 2024. 

On 31 August, the Council’s 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee held a meeting to receive briefings from the Panel of Experts (PoE) supporting the committee on the two PoE reports requested by resolution 2801 of 14 November 2025 and to discuss their findings. Since the Council has yet to agree on the allocation of subsidiary body chairs this year, the meeting was chaired by Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, the Permanent Representative of Denmark to the UN, in her capacity as president of the Security Council for the month of August. One report concerns the flow of dual-use components and precursor chemicals to Yemen and the other concerns improving information sharing and flag state capacity to prevent vessels suspected of violating the sanctions regime from entering Yemen. The PoE seems to have reported to the Council that Houthi capabilities have increased in recent months, as more arms are being produced within Yemen, and as their supply chains have become more sophisticated, while stressing that the arms embargo has become insufficient to stop the flow of sanctioned materiel.

Women, Peace and Security

On 13 August, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Tawakkol Karman delivered remarks on the situation in Yemen at the Security Council press stakeout. Speaking ahead of Karman’s intervention, Ambassador Sandra Jensen Landi, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Denmark to the UN, explained that Denmark had planned to have Karman brief the Council as a civil society representative at the 13 August meeting on Yemen. She added, however, that due to “strong opposition”, Karman did not get to brief the Council. It seems that opposition from several Council members was communicated informally to Denmark ahead of the meeting.

In her remarks, Karman called on the Security Council to urge all parties to the conflict towards an immediate de-escalation and to end all attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. She urged the Council to support an inclusive, Yemeni-led political process that restores Yemen’s sovereignty and independent national decision-making, adding that such a process should rebuild state institutions; unify military and security institutions under state authority; disarm armed groups; and ensure justice, accountability, and redress for victims. Among other measures, Karman urged the Council to continue to demand the immediate and unconditional release of all arbitrarily detained or abducted persons, and to consider establishing a special international judicial mechanism for Yemen to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity. She stressed that “peace in Yemen cannot be sustainable without women” and called for women’s participation in peace negotiations, state building, and decision-making processes, with at least 30 percent representation. Karman urged the Council to enforce its sanctions regime on Yemen and hold accountable those responsible for human rights violations and for undermining peace, as well as the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of Yemen. 

Key Issues and Options

An urgent issue for the Council is how to address the full resumption of hostilities in Yemen, which indicate that the 2022 UN-mediated truce has collapsed. The Houthis’ rapid military offensive and increased strategic leverage over the Bab al-Mandab Strait represents a fundamental shift in the conflict’s trajectory and poses severe risks to regional stability, the Yemeni civilian population, and international maritime security. Council members could use the upcoming meeting and any influence they have over the parties involved to press for de-escalation and demand that civilians be protected in line with conflict parties’ obligations under international humanitarian law.

In this context, Council members could consider building on the two recent press statements issued and adopt a resolution or presidential statement demanding an immediate nationwide cessation of hostilities by all parties and calling for the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure and for unimpeded humanitarian access across Yemen. The text could also demand an end to Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and on commercial shipping and could reaffirm Council support for Grundberg’s mediation efforts towards a negotiated Yemeni-owned and Yemeni-led political settlement of the conflict.

Another issue is that recent developments have illustrated that Houthi military capabilities have continued to grow, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of the Yemen sanctions regime, including the arms embargo established through resolution 2216 of 14 April 2015. Council members could request a briefing from the PoE to the 2140 committee on the findings of the panel’s final report to the Council, due on 15 October, and on Houthi capabilities and supply chains. This could help better inform Council negotiations on the upcoming renewal of the 2140 sanctions regime, which expires on 14 November.

The impact of renewed hostilities on the already dire humanitarian situation, compounded by severe access constraints, also remains a priority. Members could consider inviting a senior OCHA official to brief specifically on access constraints and their operational impacts in a meeting focused specifically on the humanitarian situation in Yemen, including the protection of humanitarian personnel. 

Council and Wider Dynamics

Council members agree in their support for an inclusive Yemeni-led political process under UN auspices and share similar concerns over the deteriorating humanitarian situation and the Houthis’ continued detention of UN, non-governmental organisation (NGO), and diplomatic staff. However, the full resumption of hostilities and the Houthis’ seizure of territory along the Red Sea coast have sharpened existing divisions over how to characterise events and what action the Council should take to respond.

At the 15 September meeting, several Council members condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and on civilian and energy infrastructure, expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government, and called for the full enforcement of the Yemen sanctions regime under resolutions 2140 and 2216. Several members—including Bahrain, Denmark, Latvia, the UK, and the US—called on Iran to cease arming the Houthis. France, the UK, and the US continue to favour increased pressure on the Houthis and Iran, including through sanctions and PoE scrutiny, with the US in particular framing recent developments in Yemen within its broader confrontation with Iran.

Russia and China have adopted a more measured stance, calling on the Houthis to show restraint and refrain from threatening commercial shipping, but stopping short of attributing sole blame to the group, while urging a negotiated solution involving all relevant political forces in Yemen, including the Houthis.

Some Council members have also taken steps to militarily support Saudi Arabia in combating the Houthis and protecting its infrastructure. On 24 September, France said that it would provide “soldiers, radars and defense systems” to Saudi Arabia to help it defend energy sites along the Red Sea, which have been increasingly targeted by the Houthi forces. On 22 September, the UK announced that its military would provide air-to-air refuelling of Saudi planes. Saudi Arabia has also signed a defence pact with Council-member Pakistan and Türkiye, called the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement”.

Despite having approved a 5-billion-dollar potential weapons sale to Saudi Arabia, the US seems to have opted not to get directly involved in the conflict with the Houthis. According to the media reports, on 20 September, US President Donald Trump cancelled planned airstrikes against the Houthis amid reported concerns regarding the US military’s existing strains in its war with Iran. Earlier in the month on 16 September, US officials reportedly met with the Houthis in Oman, where the rebel group said they would not target US or Israeli vessels or any commercial vessels other than those belonging to Saudi Arabia.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. Greece and the US are the co-penholders on the Red Sea crisis. 

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Press Statements
18 September 2026SC/16458 This press statement condemned continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab, and the ongoing Houthi military escalation in Yemen.
7 August 2026SC/16429 This press statement expressed members’ concerns at heightened tensions in Yemen and called on the Houthis to de-escalate and pursue dialogue.
Security Council Meeting Record
15 September 2026S/PV.10222 This was an emergency meeting held in response to an advancing Houthi offensive along Yemen’s west coast.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications